Swingfolio Daily
ASX briefings — Tuesday 5 May 2026
Morning setup and afternoon close recap for Tuesday 5 May 2026. Observations only — no trade advice.
Tuesday 5 May 2026
ASX braces for RBA call as Dow -557 on Iran-UAE strikes
ASX 200 SPI futures point -0.75% (-66 pts) lower into Tuesday's RBA decision (86% market-implied probability of a 25bp hike to 4.35%), after Wall Street closed lower on a Middle East risk bid. Dow led declines at -1.13% (-557 pts) on reports of Iranian strikes on a US patrol boat and a UAE missile intercept; Materials -1.62% and Industrials -1.02% drove the US session. Gold held above US$4,500 despite VIX +7.65% to 18.29.
RBA hikes 25 bp to 4.35% — ASX 200 closes -0.19% at 8,680.5 as banks split, Energy +0.89% leads sectors
The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,680.5 on 5 May 2026, down 16.6 points or 0.19%, after the RBA Monetary Policy Board lifted the cash rate target by 25 bps to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote — the third hike of 2026. Energy (XEJ) +0.89% led sectors as Brent held US$113.40, while Materials (-0.55%) and Financials (-0.50%) capped the index. VNT.AU jumped +5.75% on Defence contract execution; IEL.AU -7.05% on continued profit-warning fallout.