Expectancy Calculator

Understanding Expectancy

Expectancy is the single most important metric for evaluating a trading system. It tells you how much you expect to make on average per trade, removing the noise of individual wins and losses.

The Formula

Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)

For example, if you win 55% of trades with an average win of $500 and an average loss of $300, your expectancy is: (0.55 × $500) - (0.45 × $300) = $275 - $135 = $140 per trade.

Monte Carlo Simulation

A single path of trades can be misleading. Monte Carlo simulation runs your system through thousands of randomized sequences to show the full range of outcomes -- including worst-case drawdowns and best-case scenarios.