Swingfolio Daily
ASX briefings — Monday 4 May 2026
Morning setup and afternoon close recap for Monday 4 May 2026. Observations only — no trade advice.
Monday 4 May 2026
US records flow into ASX open as RBA decision looms (Mon 4 May 2026)
US indices closed Friday at fresh records — S&P 500 +0.29%, NASDAQ +0.89% (first close above 25,000) — though Dow lagged at -0.31%. Brent above US$111 on tenth-week Strait of Hormuz closure. ASX 200 closed Friday 8,729.8 (+0.74%). RBA cash rate decision Tuesday 5 May 14:30 AEST is the dominant local catalyst; CBA, NAB and Westpac economists call a 25bp hike to 4.35% on AU CPI 4.6%.
ASX 200 closes 8,697 (-0.4%) — Accent -13% on ASIC probe, a2 Milk -10% on US recall
ASX 200 finished 32.7 points lower at 8,697.1 (-0.37%). Idiosyncratic blow-ups dominated: AX1.AU -12.90% on an ASIC probe of CEO and NED share trading, A2M.AU -9.90% on a US infant-formula recall, ING.AU -4.40% after a Bell Potter downgrade. NAB.AU -1.58% post 1H26 cash earnings of A$3,558m (A$2.64bn after the A$949m software policy hit). Tech-data complex offset some damage: XRO.AU +2.92%, REA.AU +2.78%, PME.AU +1.84%. Lithium-complex drawdown — LTR.AU -8.33%, ARU.AU -6.94%, CXO.AU -3.08%. RBA decision tomorrow at 14:30 AEST.