US records flow into ASX open as RBA decision looms (Mon 4 May 2026)

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: pointing higher off Friday's 8,729.8 cash close

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,230.12 on Friday 1 May 2026, up 21 points or 0.29%, posting a sixth consecutive weekly gain — the longest winning run since October 2024. The NASDAQ pushed through 25,000 for the first time, ending at 25,114.44 (+0.89%).

• S&P 500: 7,230.12 (+0.29%) — record close
• NASDAQ: 25,114.44 (+0.89%) — first close above 25,000
• Dow: 49,499.27 (-0.31%) — only major US index in the red
• VIX: 16.99 (+0.59%) — elevated relative to the new index highs

NASDAQ's lead over a red Dow points to AI/tech leadership rather than broad participation. Q1 aggregate S&P 500 EPS growth is tracking +27.8% y/y per the Reuters consensus tally. AAPL.US, GOOG.US and TSLA.US were Friday's Mag 7 standouts after Apple's quarterly print. Reporting companies have now accounted for over 40% of S&P 500 market cap this earnings season.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

Brent crude held above US$111/bbl on Friday 1 May 2026, posting a second straight weekly gain. The Strait of Hormuz closure is now in its tenth week, and the UAE's exit from OPEC took effect today — adding to supply uncertainty for the May contract.

• Gold (spot): US$4,612/oz (-0.22% Friday)
• Brent crude: above US$111/bbl (second weekly gain)
• WTI crude: near US$106/bbl
• AUD/USD: 0.7225 (+0.31%)

Crude at US$111+ leaves AU energy producers WDS.AU, STO.AU, BPT.AU and KAR.AU bid at the open after Friday's miner-led ASX bounce. The 0.31% AUD lift trims a sliver from USD-earner translations — most marginal for CSL.AU and JHX.AU, modest for BHP.AU and RIO.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• RBA decision Tuesday — Cash rate decision Tue 5 May at 14:30 AEST. CBA, NAB and Westpac economists call a 25bp hike to 4.35% on the AU CPI 4.6% March print. Banks (CBA.AU, WBC.AU, NAB.AU, ANZ.AU) and rate-sensitives (REA.AU, GMG.AU, SCG.AU) carry the most direct sensitivity to the release. AUD/USD at 0.7225 sits roughly mid-range of recent sessions.
• Energy strength — Brent above US$111 keeps WDS.AU, STO.AU, BPT.AU and KAR.AU bid after Friday's bounce. AU oil & gas led Friday's sector tape on Strait of Hormuz headlines.
• Tech follow-through — NASDAQ +0.89% to 25,114.44 is a positive read-across for AU tech: XRO.AU, WTC.AU, NXT.AU, PME.AU and ALU.AU. AAPL.US strength flows through to local Apple-supply chain names with a one-day lag.
• Gold cooling — Spot at US$4,612 after recent record prints. AU gold producers NST.AU, EVN.AU and GMD.AU open against a slightly weaker spot price. Diversified miners BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU face mixed cross-currents — softer gold against firmer crude.
• AU VIX at 12.36 — Friday's -5.85% drop in implied volatility marks a calmer risk backdrop into the RBA. The print can re-rate sharply on the 14:30 Tuesday release if the cash rate move differs from the consensus call.

Economic calendar today

• 09:00 AEST — ASX open (Mon 4 May)
• 11:30 AEST — AU Building Permits (March, final)
• 23:45 AEST — US ISM Manufacturing PMI (April)
• 23:45 AEST — US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (final, April)

What to watch

• Direction of the open versus Friday's 8,729.8 close — a flat-to-positive open keeps the +0.74% Friday momentum intact ahead of RBA.
• Bank pricing into Tuesday's RBA — CBA.AU, WBC.AU, NAB.AU and ANZ.AU intraday flow will drive sector rotation more than US overnight tone.
• Energy versus duration — crude US$111+ lifts WDS.AU and STO.AU; a higher RBA terminal pressures long-duration property names REA.AU, GMG.AU and SCG.AU.
• AUD/USD reaction at 14:30 Tuesday — 0.7225 print leaves a wider band either side of the consensus call.

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