ASX 200 slips 0.4% as an oil shock lifts energy and sinks the miners
ASX 200 week close: 8,806 (-0.43%) S&P 500 Friday close: 7,575 (+0.42%) Sentiment: mixed
The week on the ASX
The ASX 200 finished the week at 8,806, down 38 points or 0.43%, handing back most of the prior week's gain. The move looks small at the index level, but underneath it the market pulled apart: a Middle East oil scare rewarded energy producers and punished the battery-metals, rare-earth and gold miners across the same five sessions.
The trigger was geopolitical. US strikes on Iran on 7 and 8 July, followed by a threat to reimpose a naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz (the channel that carries roughly a fifth of the world's seaborne oil), pushed Brent crude up 5.6% on the week to about $76 and WTI up 4.3%. Energy was the standout local sector for most of the week. The other side of that trade was a rout in critical minerals, where lithium, rare earths and gold diggers all fell hard as investors trimmed a long run of stretched valuations.
Sentiment was also capped from above. The IMF trimmed its 2026 Australian growth forecast to 1.9% from 2.0% and flagged inflation staying near 4% this year. The RBA was not in play: it left the cash rate at 4.35% at its 17 June meeting and does not sit again until 11 August, so there was no domestic policy catalyst to lean on. The index did snap a four-session losing streak on Friday, rising 0.5% as the big banks, iron-ore majors and gold miners bounced together.
Sector scorecard (5-day)
- Best: Energy, around +4% across Santos, Woodside, Beach Energy, Viva Energy and Ampol, on the crude spike.
- Worst: Battery metals and rare earths, near -14%, as the lithium and critical-minerals trade unwound.
- Gold miners: about -9% (Evolution, Northern Star, Genesis, Pantoro) even with bullion close to flat.
- Dispersion (best minus worst): roughly 18 points, a wide gap that made sector selection matter more than index direction.
- Financials and platforms held firmer, with Netwealth +5.4% and Judo Capital +4.6%.
Top movers, week ending 10 July
| Ticker | Week | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| BVS.AU | +13.5% | Lifted FY26 cash EBITDA guidance to about $77m; full-year results due 12 August. |
| WIA.AU | +9.2% | Kokoseb drilling in Namibia hit a new high-grade zone; feasibility study due this quarter. |
| CU6.AU | +9.1% | Radiopharma theranostics stayed in favour; SAR-bisPSMA prostate data set for EANM 2026. |
| MSB.AU | +8.7% | Ryoncil FY26 net sales reached US$115m, with quarterly uptake beating early guidance. |
| STO.AU | +7.3% | Rode the oil spike as Middle East supply fears lifted the whole energy sector. |
| MI6.AU | -18.4% | Slumped on resuming from a 6 July trading halt; the market read the update poorly. |
| EOS.AU | -17.1% | Defence-tech unwind, with no fresh contract news to support a stretched price. |
| ELV.AU | -16.1% | Caught in the lithium rout as battery-metals valuations corrected. |
| LIN.AU | -14.7% | Rare-earth names sold off as critical-minerals diplomacy shifted. |
| CXO.AU | -13.8% | Lithium selling deepened even as spodumene prices held firmer. |
Friday US session
- S&P 500: 7,575 (+0.42%)
- Nasdaq: 26,282 (+0.29%)
- Dow: 52,637 (+0.29%)
- VIX: 15.0 (-5.1%)
Wall Street closed the week a little firmer. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both edged higher into the weekend, and the VIX slipped to 15 as the market treated the Iran flare-up as contained rather than escalating. Gold eased about 0.6% on the week to around $4,130 an ounce despite the geopolitical backdrop, a sign that higher oil and firmer yields were setting the tone more than safe-haven demand. The Australian dollar held near US$0.70, up about half a per cent on the week, which trims the Australian-dollar value of US earnings for local exporters while easing the cost of imports.
Macro themes that played out
Two forces shaped the week. First, the oil-supply scare: the Hormuz threat pushed crude sharply higher and lifted Australian energy producers, while feeding the inflation worry the IMF flagged. Second, a valuation reset in mining: lithium (Pilbara Minerals, Mineral Resources, Core Lithium), rare earths (Lynas, Lindian) and the gold miners all came off despite broadly steady underlying commodity prices, a reminder that the share prices had run well ahead of the metal. Domestically, the story was one of absence. No RBA meeting, no local inflation print, and the IMF's softer growth call left the macro tape thin and the oil narrative in charge.
Week ahead, Mon to Fri (AEST)
- Mon 13 Jul — Quiet start locally; US Q2 earnings season eve, with no major Australian data due.
- Tue 14 Jul — US June CPI, the week's key inflation read; US mega-bank earnings begin (JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs).
- Wed 15 Jul — US June PPI; Morgan Stanley and BlackRock report.
- Thu 16 Jul — China Q2 GDP plus June activity data (retail sales, industrial production), the key read for the iron-ore majors; US June retail sales overnight.
- Fri 17 Jul — US University of Michigan consumer sentiment (preliminary). The local jobs slate stays bare: ABS June Labour Force is not due until Thursday 23 July.
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