US pre-market, June 18, 2026: Futures rebound as an Iran deal sinks oil and Intel jumps on an Apple chip pact

Sentiment: bullish S&P 500 futures: +0.91% | Nasdaq-100 futures: +1.74%

US stock futures rebounded Thursday, with Nasdaq-100 futures up 1.74% and S&P 500 futures up 0.91%, after a US-Iran interim agreement pushed oil to a multi-month low and eased the inflation worry behind Wednesday's post-Fed selloff. Intel INTC.US jumped about 8% pre-market after President Trump said Apple AAPL.US agreed to design and make chips with Intel in the United States, pulling the whole semiconductor group higher. The bounce only partly recovers Wednesday's drop of more than 1% across the three major indexes, when Kevin Warsh's first FOMC as Chair held rates but flipped its dot plot toward a possible 2026 hike.

What is driving the pre-market bid

• Iran deal, cheaper oil: Trump signed an interim agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease sanctions. WTI fell 2.10% to US$74.41 and Brent 1.42% to US$78.42, the lowest since the early days of the Iran conflict. Cheaper crude cools the inflation fear that turned the Fed hawkish a day earlier.
• Intel and Apple chip pact: INTC.US rose about 8% pre-market on the US manufacturing tie-up, and the read-through lifted the chip complex. MU.US and WDC.US gained about 5% to 6%, AMAT.US, LRCX.US and KLAC.US about 5%, AMD.US 4% and NVDA.US 1.4%. That semis bid is why Nasdaq-100 futures lead.
• Lower yields, firmer dollar: the US 10-year yield eased 2 basis points to 4.44% and the US Dollar Index firmed 0.60% to 100.69. Softer yields help long-duration tech, while the stronger dollar and a smaller war premium sent gold down 2.63% to US$4,266/oz.
• The Fed overhang stays: Wednesday's hawkish hold is the standing risk. Nine of 18 officials now see rates rising in 2026 and the median dot moved to 3.8%, so this is a relief bounce rather than an all-clear.

Overnight: Wall Street and the Fed

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday at 7,420.1, down 1.21%. The Nasdaq Composite fell 1.34% to 26,021.7 and the Dow lost 0.98% to 51,492.6, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq leading the decline. The trigger was the June FOMC. The Fed held the funds rate at 3.50% to 3.75% by a unanimous 12 to 0 vote, but its Summary of Economic Projections turned hawkish: the median 2026 rate forecast rose to 3.8% from 3.4% in March, officials lifted the year-end PCE inflation forecast to 3.6%, and they cut the GDP growth forecast to 2.2%. The statement also dropped its prior easing language, a move toward data-dependence under the new Chair. VIX has since eased about 7% to 17.05 as futures recovered.

Asia and Europe overnight

• Nikkei 225: +1.65% to 71,053
• Hang Seng: -1.59% to 23,925
• Shanghai Composite: -0.43% to 4,090
• DAX +0.33% and CAC 40 +0.12%, against Euro STOXX 600 -0.35% and FTSE 100 -0.78% in early European trade

Japan tracked the US tech bounce higher while Hong Kong lagged. Europe was split, with Germany and France firmer and the UK softer.

Pre-market movers

• INTC.US: up about 8% on the Apple US chip design and manufacturing agreement.
• SWBI.US: up about 14% after fourth-quarter EPS of US$0.36 beat by US$0.13 on sales of US$178m.
• WDC.US, MU.US, AMAT.US, LRCX.US, KLAC.US, ON.US and TER.US: up roughly 5% to 6% together on the semis bid.
• ACN.US: down about 16% after fiscal Q3 revenue of US$18.7bn missed, even with an EPS beat, the heaviest drag among IT-services names.
• KR.US: lower after first-quarter EPS of US$1.58 missed by a cent, though revenue of US$46.1bn beat.

Thursday's US data (ET)

• 8:30am: Initial jobless claims 226,000 for the week ending June 13, down about 4,000 and near the 225,000 consensus.
• 8:30am: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rebounded to +10.3 in June from -0.4 in May, under the +11.4 forecast.
• 8:30am: Continuing claims rose toward 1.81m, near a three-month high.
• Pre-open earnings already out: Accenture ACN.US and Kroger KR.US.

What to watch

• Whether the semis-led futures bid holds into the 9:30am cash open or fades the way Wednesday's session did.
• The 10-year yield: a move back toward Wednesday's hawkish-Fed levels would press the long-duration tech leadership behind the rebound.
• Oil follow-through: a sustained WTI move below US$75 keeps the inflation-relief read intact, while a reversal would revive the Fed concern.

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