US Pre-Market 26 October 2026: Nasdaq Futures +0.68% as Oil Falls; Brazil ETF -26% After Lula Win
Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: +0.41%
Nasdaq 100 futures are +0.68% and S&P 500 futures +0.41% at 8:31am ET on 26 October 2026 as December WTI falls 2.16% to $101.04 after President Trump ruled out an immediate strike on Iran, per Benzinga. Brazilian stocks listed in New York fell pre-market after President Lula won a fourth term in a result that defied polls, per Reuters: the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ.US) is -26.26% and XP.US -48.84%. Chipmakers rose before Anthropic's planned 9am ET public IPO filing, per Bloomberg, at the start of a week with the Fed decision on Wednesday and results from about one-third of S&P 500 companies.
Overnight drivers
- Brazil election: EWZ.US -26.26%, ITUB.US -26.23%, NU.US -25.01%, PBR.US -20.02% and MELI.US -14.95% pre-market after Lula defeated Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, reversing a rally in Brazilian assets earlier this month, per Yahoo Finance.
- Oil and Iran: December WTI -2.16% to $101.04 from a near six-month high last week. Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran on Sunday in coordination with the US, per Reuters. XOM.US -1.36% and CVX.US -1.30% after Friday gains of 2.79% and 2.88%.
- AI and chips: Anthropic plans to file its S-1 publicly at about 9am ET, with a mid-November listing on track, per Bloomberg and Fox Business. MU.US +2.56%, SMH.US +1.51%, AMD.US +1.42% and NVDA.US +1.18% pre-market. TSLA.US is +2.44%.
- Neoclouds: CRWV.US -2.31% and IREN Ltd -1.93% as concern over AI-related debt grows; CoreWeave and Nebius have each lost more than 30% of their market value this month, per Reuters. Elon Musk said markets have nearly shut off funding for companies without revenue independent of AI data centers. SPCX.US is +0.81% after SpaceX said it secured $40 billion of debt financing to buy GPUs.
- Rates and dollar: the 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.99%, down 11 bps for the week. DXY is +0.05% to 101.87 and December gold +0.56% to $4,030.40.
Friday on Wall Street
The S&P 500 closed at 7,623.68 on 23 October 2026, down 0.52%, its second straight weekly loss, after AI spending doubts sent the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index down 6.7% on Thursday.
- S&P 500: 7,623.68 (-0.52%)
- Nasdaq: 25,955.34 (-0.21%)
- Dow: 52,215.16 (-1.23%)
- Russell 2000: 2,775.90 (-0.29%)
- VIX: 19.10 (-1.80% this morning)
AXP.US fell 3.67% on Friday after American Express announced plans to cut about 5% of its workforce, which cost the price-weighted Dow 652.84 points. T.US fell 7.96% on the SpaceX cell-site report and Crown Castle rose 9.06%. The Dow still rose 0.41% for the week while the Nasdaq lost 0.71%.
Overnight Asia and Europe
South Korea's KOSPI closed at 5,469.47 on 26 October 2026, down 1.46%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 0.80%, while European indices rose between 0.46% and 0.94% by mid-session as oil eased.
- Nikkei 225: 62,189.65 (-0.80%)
- KOSPI: 5,469.47 (-1.46%)
- Hang Seng: 23,211.81 (+0.51%)
- Shanghai Composite: 3,697.52 (+0.19%)
- S&P/ASX 200: 8,809.90 (+0.17%)
- STOXX 600: 639.22 (+0.54%)
- DAX: 25,417.51 (+0.94%)
- CAC 40: 7,847.97 (+0.84%)
- FTSE 100: 10,739.32 (+0.46%)
Pre-market movers
| Ticker | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SGRY.US | +23.56% | Bon Secours Mercy Health deal valuing it at about $6 billion including debt, per FT |
| MU.US | +2.56% | Chipmakers rise before Anthropic's public IPO filing |
| TSLA.US | +2.44% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| XP.US | -48.84% | Brazil election result; Lula wins a fourth term |
| STNE.US | -38.59% | Brazil election result |
| INTR.US | -36.72% | Brazil election result |
| BBD.US | -28.50% | Brazil election result |
| FICO.US | -9.53% | Wells Fargo downgrade to Equal Weight; cites VantageScore 4.0 competition |
| MRNA.US | -8.23% | Phase 3 melanoma vaccine data below the earlier Phase 2b benefit |
- MRNA.US -8.23% after Moderna and Merck said intismeran autogene plus Keytruda cut the risk of melanoma recurrence or death by 42% against Keytruda alone in the Phase 3 INTerpath-001 trial. RBC called the data likely approvable but questioned its value against lower-cost neoadjuvant immunotherapy, per AJMC.
- VZ.US -0.90% after Verizon reported third-quarter revenue of $34.31 billion against $34.77 billion expected and adjusted EPS of $1.31 against $1.27, per StockStory, and raised full-year guidance for a third straight quarter.
- ABEV.US -14.23% as Ambev trails the Brazilian banks and fintechs; Banco Santander Brasil is -12.07% and Vale -4.27%.
US economic calendar today (ET)
- 8:30am: no scheduled release.
- 9:00am: Anthropic's public S-1 filing, per Bloomberg.
- After the close: Cadence Design, Nucor, Rambus and Amkor report.
- This week: FOMC decision Wednesday at 2:00pm, with a pause widely expected after September's hike to a 3.75% to 4.00% range; Q3 GDP and September PCE Thursday at 8:30am; Alphabet and Microsoft report Wednesday after the close, Amazon Thursday.
What to watch
- Nasdaq 100 futures (+0.68%) lead Dow futures (+0.43%) and Russell 2000 futures (+0.28%) after Friday's split, when the Dow fell 1.23% and the Nasdaq 0.21%.
- VIX is 19.10, down 1.80% from Friday's 19.45 close.
- Traders price a December hike as firmly possible and at least two 25 bp increases by mid-2027, per LSEG data cited by Reuters.
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