ASX 200 set to open 0.25% higher as Brent sinks 5.86% and Wall Street sets records

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.25%

SPI futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open 23 points or 0.25% higher near 9,169 on 5 August 2026, after Brent crude fell 5.86% to US$78.86 a barrel when US and Qatari officials said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could come within days. Palantir PLTR.US jumped 29.45% to US$162.66 after second quarter revenue rose 93% to US$1.94 billion, pulling the Nasdaq up 2.59%. Cheaper crude cut the implied odds of a September Fed hike to 57% from about 65%, and the US 10 year yield fell 6 basis points to 4.63%.

Overnight drivers

• Brent crude -5.86% to US$78.86: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be reached within a day or two, and Qatar said a de-escalation text is circulating between the parties. Brent has fallen 12.5% in two sessions from US$90.12 on 31 July, which is the deck WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU now price against.
• S&P 500 +1.79% to a record 7,736.52: The Dow closed at a record 54,085.88, up 1.71%. Cheaper energy lowers US inflation expectations, and that is what repriced the September Fed meeting.
• PLTR.US +29.45%, AMD.US +7.00%: Palantir's commercial revenue rose 149% to US$764 million and government revenue 90% to US$809 million. AU technology tracked the same AI trade on Tuesday, with 360.AU up 11.4% and MP1.AU up 5.7%.
• AUD/USD +0.68% to 0.7050: A firmer Australian dollar cuts the AUD value of US earnings for CSL.AU and JHX.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,736.52 (+1.79%)
• Nasdaq: 26,584.99 (+2.59%)
• Dow: 54,085.88 (+1.71%)
• VIX: 16.50 (+4.04%)

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,736.52 on 4 August 2026, its first record close since early June, and the Dow cleared 54,000 for the first time. The Nasdaq's 2.59% gain leaves it 1.9% short of its 2 June peak of 27,093.90, so the AI trade has retraced most of the July drawdown without clearing it. CVX.US fell 1.44% and XOM.US 0.71% as crude slid. The VIX rose 4.04% to 16.50 on the same day the S&P 500 set a record, so hedging demand held through the rally, with July payrolls due Friday.

Commodities and FX

• Gold: US$4,080/oz (+0.62%)
• Silver: US$59.55/oz (+3.23%)
• Brent: US$78.86 (-5.86%)
• Copper: US$6.61/lb (+1.46%)
• Iron ore 62%: US$93.70/t (+0.04%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7050 (+0.68%)

Gold rose on a risk-on night because cheaper crude lowers the odds of another Fed hike, and a lower expected policy rate cuts the cost of holding metal that pays no yield. Silver's 3.23% gain ran at five times gold's. Iron ore held at US$93.70/t, so BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU start the session without a move in their main product.

Key themes for the ASX open

• VEA.AU fell 3.63% and ALD.AU 2.94% on Tuesday as refining margins compressed, and Brent has dropped a further 5.86% since that close.
• NST.AU, EVN.AU and WGX.AU each rose about 2.1% on Tuesday and open with a firmer gold price behind them.
• 9,145.8 leaves the index 55 points, or 0.60%, below its record close of 9,200.9 set on 2 March 2026.
• 23 points of indicated gain against a 1.79% S&P 500 record is a narrow gap, because the ASX 200 already banked 1.40% on Tuesday when 238 S&P/ASX 300 names advanced against 47 decliners.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS Selected Living Cost Indexes, June quarter 2026
• ARG.AU reports FY26 results; LNW.AU reports first half 2026
• 00:00 AEST Thursday: US July ISM Services PMI, consensus 54.5 against 54.0 in June

What to watch

• 14:30 AEST on 11 August: the RBA Monetary Policy Board decision and quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy, after a two day meeting on 10 and 11 August. The cash rate is 4.35%.
• BPT.AU and REA.AU report FY26 results on 6 August, with Beach Energy's numbers landing into a Brent price 12.5% below last Friday's settle.
• 22:30 AEST on Friday: US July non-farm payrolls, consensus 88,000 against 57,000 in June, with unemployment steady at 4.2%.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.