ASX 200 called flat as crude jumps 5% into RBA decision day

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.04%

The S&P/ASX 200 is called to open 4 points lower on 11 August 2026 near 9,228.6, after WTI crude settled 5.09% higher at US$82.16 on stalled Strait of Hormuz talks. Westpac WBC.AU closed Monday down 5.88% at $35.70 after a third-quarter update showed post-budget mortgage applications down 20%, dragging the index to 9,232.6. The RBA hands down its decision at 14:30 AEST with the cash rate at 4.35%, three hikes into a tightening cycle the board began because of the same oil shock that moved again overnight.

Overnight drivers

• WTI crude +5.09% to US$82.16: Brent added 4.99% to US$87.68. Iran and Oman have not finalised an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran wants the US naval blockade lifted first, and Houthi militants claimed an attack on Saudi Arabia's Jazan refinery over the weekend. US strategic reserves have fallen below 300 million barrels, the lowest since 1983.
• Fuels ran harder than crude: heating oil +7.36%, gasoline +4.90%, natural gas +4.26%. Governor Michele Bullock said on 28 July that underlying inflation could rise further as oil costs tied to the Iran conflict pass into goods and services, which puts this move straight in front of today's board meeting.
• Gold spot +1.12% to US$4,391.90: softer US payrolls cut the odds of a September Fed hike. Silver gained 3.42% to US$65.72.
• US 10-year +3.9bp to 4.699%: the US dollar index rose 0.27% to 99.807 and AUD/USD slipped 0.18% to 0.7058. A softer Australian dollar raises the AUD value of USD revenue for CSL.AU, which closed Monday up 1.72% at $134.47.
• Iron ore held at US$94.55/t (+0.11%): BHP.AU closed Monday up 0.87% at $63.52 and RIO.AU up 0.77% at $179.05, with FMG.AU off 0.17% at $17.99.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,753.11 on 10 August 2026, down 0.06%, as energy gains offset falls in semiconductors and real estate.

• S&P 500: 7,753.11 (-0.06%)
• Nasdaq: 26,605.36 (-0.32%)
• Dow: 53,975.98 (-0.11%)
• Russell 2000: 3,017.40 (-0.56%)
• VIX: 15.46 (+3.76%)

XLE.US, the energy sector ETF, rose 4.66% against an S&P 500 that fell 0.06%, with XOM.US up 4.41% and CVX.US up 4.48%. Semiconductors went the other way, SMH.US down 2.28%, and rate-sensitives followed the 10-year higher, XLRE.US off 1.29% and XLU.US off 1.10%. US July CPI lands Wednesday at 22:30 AEST, the first inflation print to capture part of this oil move.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,391.90/oz (+1.12%) spot, with the December futures contract at US$4,452
• Brent: US$87.68 (+4.99%)
• WTI: US$82.16 (+5.09%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$94.55/t (+0.11%)
• Copper: US$6.61/lb (+0.59%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7058 (-0.18%)

The ASX closed at 16:00 AEST Monday, about ten hours before crude settled, so local energy names finished the session without most of the move in them. WDS.AU ended down 0.28% at $31.79, STO.AU down 0.13% at $7.65 and KAR.AU down 0.60% at $1.645. YAL.AU rose 2.49% to $5.76, WHC.AU 2.32% to $7.49 and NHC.AU 1.73% to $5.30, so coal caught part of the energy bid during local hours.

Key themes for ASX open

• Banks carry Monday's result into the RBA meeting: WBC.AU -5.88%, NAB.AU -2.39% to $41.22, CBA.AU -2.10% to $174.27 and ANZ.AU -1.70% to $37.09. Westpac's owner-occupier applications fell 18% and investor applications 26% after the May budget, and its economists cut FY27 housing credit growth to 4.7% from 6.8% in FY26.
• Gold miners closed higher, then bullion rose again after they shut: GMD.AU +2.81% to $7.33, EVN.AU +2.39% to $13.72, RRL.AU +2.06% to $7.44, NST.AU +1.37% to $23.01.
• Lithium ran too, IGO.AU +3.62% to $7.72 and PLS.AU +3.06% to $4.72, against a contract price up 1.23% to 144,500.
• SGH.AU, 360.AU, AOV.AU and HLI.AU report today, from Monday closes of $46.34, $29.48, $7.41 and $5.12.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: NAB Business Survey (July). Business confidence last printed at 3.
• 14:30 AEST: RBA cash rate decision. Consensus is a hold at 4.35%.
• 14:30 AEST: RBA statement. Its wording on the hiking bias carries more for the Australian dollar than the rate itself.

What to watch

• Whether the RBA statement repeats Bullock's 28 July line that the board is prepared to raise the cash rate further if needed, after crude moved 5.09% overnight.
• Whether local energy names close the gap to a US$82.16 WTI print that landed after Monday's ASX close.
• Australian 10-year yield above 5.00% into the 14:30 AEST decision.
• CBA.AU reports its full-year result on 12 August, ANZ.AU updates on 13 August and NAB.AU on 17 August, so Westpac's mortgage numbers get three more reference points this month.

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