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ASX 200 Set to Open 45 Points Lower on 18 August 2026 as BHP and CSL Report

SPI futures point 45 points lower after Wall Street fell on climbing crude and long-bond yields at multi-decade highs. BHP, CSL, Cochlear, Challenger and Pro Medicus all report FY26 today.

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2009,073-0.46%
S&P 5007,745-0.52%
NASDAQ26,645-0.32%
Dow53,460-0.51%
VIX15.19+6.60%
Gold4,472-0.04%
Brent91.43+0.62%
AUD/USD0.7108+0.30%
SPI_F9,028-0.50%

ASX 200 Set to Open 45 Points Lower on 18 August 2026 as BHP and CSL Report

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.50%

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open 45 points or 0.50% lower on Tuesday 18 August 2026, near 9,028 against Monday's 9,073.2 close, after Wall Street fell on climbing crude and long-bond yields at multi-decade highs. SNDK.US gained 8.88%, the largest US large-cap move of the session, extending a rally from its 13 August investor day. Energy was the only US sector with a bid as WTI rose 0.88% to US$85.24 on a Strait of Hormuz shipping slowdown, and five ASX 200 heavyweights report today including BHP.AU and CSL.AU.

Overnight drivers

  • Crude climbed on Hormuz supply risk: WTI +0.88% to US$85.24 and Brent +0.62% to US$91.43 after shipping through the Strait slowed over the weekend and the US and Iran let a memorandum deadline expire on Monday. XLE.US rose 1.08%, the only US sector gain. STO.AU, WDS.AU and BPT.AU all closed higher in Monday's local session and open with crude higher again.
  • US long-end yields reached multi-decade highs: the 30-year hit 5.309% and the 10-year 4.724%, up 2.8 basis points. Australia's 10-year sits at 5.038%. Higher long rates press the rate-sensitive part of the local index, the REITs and the banks that already fell on Monday.
  • AUD/USD firmed 0.30% to 0.7108: a stronger Australian dollar cuts the AUD value of USD revenue for CSL.AU and COH.AU, both of which release FY26 results today.
  • Iron ore held at US$94.95 a tonne, down 0.23% on Monday and 3.80% over the past month. That is the price backdrop for BHP.AU's FY26 result, where consensus sits at US$32,393 million underlying EBITDA and a A$1.56 per share dividend.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,745.06 (-0.52%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,644.91 (-0.32%)
  • Dow: 53,459.78 (-0.51%)
  • Russell 2000: 3,057.54 (-0.35%)
  • VIX: 15.19 (+6.60%)

62.8% of US issues were declining late in the session while the S&P 500 fell 0.52%. SNDK.US +8.88%, WDC.US +5.35% and MRVL.US +5.54% ran against that, lifting the semiconductor ETF SMH.US 1.06%. Consumer names fell ahead of a heavy retail reporting week, with STZ.US -6.19%, TAP.US -4.75%, WMT.US -0.82% and HD.US -0.29%. NVDA.US closed 0.07% lower despite confirming credit support and compute for a 4.25 gigawatt OpenAI data centre in Ohio.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,471.80/oz (-0.04%)
  • Brent: US$91.43 (+0.62%)
  • WTI: US$85.24 (+0.88%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe CFR: US$94.95/t (-0.23%)
  • Copper: US$6.6055/lb (-0.16%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7108 (+0.30%)

Gold futures sat flat at US$4,471.80 an ounce overnight, after GMD.AU rose 4.46% and CMM.AU 4.30% in Monday's local session. Iron ore below US$100 a tonne and 3.80% lower over the past month puts the weight of BHP.AU's result on volumes, unit costs and the dividend rather than the realised price.

Key themes for ASX open

  • BHP.AU reports FY26 today, having closed 1.39% higher at $62.20 on Monday against iron ore at US$94.95 a tonne.
  • CSL.AU and COH.AU both report USD-weighted revenue into an AUD at 0.7108, after Monday declines of 1.39% to $134.60 and 1.76% to $131.25.
  • CGF.AU (-2.02%) and PME.AU (-1.68%) complete the five-name results slate.
  • JBH.AU shed 12.31% to $71.65 on Monday after its FY26 result, the largest ASX 200 decline of the session, with LLC.AU next at 11.15%.
  • NAB.AU at $39.46 after a 4.62% drop and ANZ.AU at $37.88 leave the banks soft while Australian 10-year yields sit at 5.038%.

Economic calendar today

  • 10:30 AEST: Westpac-Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment, August
  • FY26 results: BHP.AU, CSL.AU, COH.AU, CGF.AU, PME.AU

What to watch

  • BHP.AU, CSL.AU and COH.AU carry enough index weight between them to decide whether the ASX 200 holds 9,000 against the 45-point futures gap.
  • Brent at US$91.43 and an Australian 10-year at 5.038% pull the index in opposite directions, energy against the banks and REITs.
  • Wage Price Index for the June quarter lands 11:30 AEST Wednesday, and US FOMC minutes from the 28 to 29 July meeting follow the same day, a meeting at which three members dissented in favour of a rate rise.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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