ASX 200 set to open 0.3% higher as a US Treasury buyback plan lifts gold 4.23%

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.3%

The S&P 500 closed at 7,707.98 on 19 August 2026, up 0.21%, after the US Treasury said it will at least double its repurchases of 10-year to 30-year government debt and the 30-year yield fell more than 10 basis points to 5.184%. MRNA.US rose 176.97% to US$174.38 for its best session on record after a Merck-partnered melanoma vaccine cleared a late-stage trial, and MRK.US added 12.60%. That same yield move pushed the US dollar index down 0.89% to 98.77 and lifted spot gold 4.23% to US$4,518.28 an ounce, with SPI futures pointing the ASX 200 28 points higher at the open.

Overnight drivers

• US Treasury buyback expansion: the 30-year yield fell more than 10 basis points to 5.184% after touching a 19-year high above 5.33% on Tuesday, and the 10-year fell more than 6 basis points to 4.637%. Treasury is targeting the 10-year to 30-year section of the curve, including the 20-year. Australia's 10-year sits at 5.018%, so the pullback reaches ASX rate-sensitives and property names, with GMG.AU reporting today.
• US dollar index 98.77, down 0.89% to a more than two-month low. AUD/USD rose 0.58% to 0.7129, which trims the Australian-dollar value of offshore revenue at CSL.AU and other USD earners.
• Spot gold US$4,518.28 an ounce, up 4.23%, a more than two-month high. Silver rose 5.67% to US$66.91, platinum 5.38% and palladium 3.63%. NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU all price off that move.
• MRVL.US +9.85%, AVGO.US -4.57%, AMD.US -3.71%: Marvell gained on a Google tensor processing unit agreement that hands Alphabet a warrant over US$12.2 billion of Marvell stock. Broadcom and AMD fell after the Wall Street Journal reported OpenAI's second-quarter revenue grew 18% on the prior quarter while losses widened.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 ended a three-day losing run on 19 August 2026, closing at 7,707.98, up 0.21%.

• S&P 500: 7,707.98 (+0.21%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,331.09 (+0.16%)
• Dow Jones: 53,463.05 (+0.22%)
• Russell 2000: 3,032.94 (+0.50%)
• VIX: 14.89 (-6.00%)

The Dow was up 360 points, or 0.7%, at its session high and finished up 119.65, so most of the move went missing into the close. Minutes from the Federal Reserve's July meeting, released Wednesday, showed officials saw scope for higher rates if inflation does not cool, and three members had already dissented in favour of a hike at that meeting. LOW.US and HD.US both closed up 2.02% as rate-sensitive retailers kept their gains. The Russell 2000 added 0.50% against the Nasdaq's 0.16%.

Commodities and FX

• Gold: US$4,518.28/oz (+4.23%)
• Silver: US$66.91/oz (+5.67%)
• Brent: US$91.55 (+0.58%)
• WTI: US$85.72 (+0.92%)
• Copper: US$6.50/lb (+0.27%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$95.17/t (-0.12%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7129 (+0.58%)

Gold at US$4,518.28 an ounce sits at a more than two-month high, and silver's 5.67% gain to US$66.91 outpaced it, with platinum up 5.38% and palladium up 3.63% alongside. Crude added a second session of gains, with WTI up 0.92% to US$85.72 and Brent up 0.58% to US$91.55, which Bloomberg attributed to an escalation in Middle East tensions. Iron ore was the exception at US$95.17 a tonne, down 0.12%.

Key themes for the ASX open

• NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU open against a 4.23% overnight gain in spot gold and a 5.67% gain in silver.
• US$85.72 WTI, up 0.92%, is the input for WDS.AU and STO.AU. STO.AU closed 2.47% higher on Wednesday.
• GMG.AU reports today with the Australian 10-year at 5.018% and US long-end yields off their highs. The stock fell 4.10% on Wednesday.
• WTC.AU, XRO.AU and MP1.AU open on a split US tech session, with Marvell up and Broadcom and AMD down. WTC.AU fell 8.70% on Wednesday.
• Iron ore at US$95.17 a tonne, down 0.12%, and copper up 0.27% leave BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU flat against the gold and energy moves.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 11:00 AEST: consumer inflation expectations for August, against 4.7% in July.
• 11:30 AEST: labour force for July. Employment change consensus is 15,000 against 76,300 in June, the unemployment rate consensus is 4.4%, and the participation rate consensus is 66.9%.
• Results due: GMG.AU, MPL.AU, MP1.AU, SUL.AU and ZIP.AU.

What to watch

• 11:30 AEST puts the July jobs print mid-session, with a 15,000 consensus against a 76,300 gain in June.
• 5.184% on the US 30-year is still above the 5.018% Australian 10-year, so the long-end reset has not reversed the level, only the direction.
• 14.89 on the VIX, down 6.00%, prices little event risk into a session that carries both the jobs print and five ASX 200 results.

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