ASX 200 set to open 31 points higher as Brent settles 6.53% lower and gold hits a three-month high

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.35%

Brent settled at US$86.15 on 25 August 2026, down 6.53%, after Washington's Iran sanctions package proved narrower than expected. DKS.US fell 30.68% to US$124.31 on a full-year guidance cut, the largest single-name move of the Wall Street session. The SPI points the S&P/ASX 200 31 points or 0.35% higher from Tuesday's 9,164.6 close, because gold at a three-month high and a 6.5 basis point fall in the US 10-year yield outweigh the crude settle.

Overnight drivers

• Brent US$86.15, down 6.53%, and WTI US$81.08, down 4.62%. Pakistan's army chief left Tehran carrying a sanctions-relief proposal, one day after Washington launched its "Operation Economic Outcast" measures. XOM.US fell 2.08%, CVX.US 1.58%. WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU closed Tuesday at 33.00, 8.15 and 0.885, hours before that settle printed.
• Gold US$4,722.70/oz, up 1.76%, its highest settle since mid-May and about 15% above where the month started. The US dollar index eased 0.10% to 98.90, and the US Treasury's buyback financing kept a lid on yields. NEM.US gained 2.50%. NST.AU, EVN.AU and WGX.AU hold the local version of that trade.
• US 10-year yield 4.639%, down 6.5 basis points. The Nasdaq rose 0.66% behind it. WTC.AU and XRO.AU closed Tuesday up 4.55% and 2.56%, and WTC.AU reports today.
• Copper US$6.707/lb, up 1.63%. FCX.US added 2.71%. BHP.AU closed Tuesday at 67.67, up 0.82%, one session after setting a record close on a copper supply shock.

Overnight Wall Street

The S&P 500 closed at 7,677.28 on 25 August 2026, up 0.32%, with the Nasdaq up 0.66% to 26,151.30 and the Dow up 0.30% to 53,577.40. The VIX settled at 15.45, down 2.52%, and the Russell 2000 added 0.50% to 3,010.02.

AMD.US gained 4.91% to US$479.18 after Raymond James lifted its target to US$641 from US$565 on server-CPU demand, and NVDA.US added 2.19% to US$213.05 in the session before its second-quarter report, due after the US close tonight against roughly US$91 billion of expected revenue. META.US rose 1.97% and MSFT.US 0.90%, while AAPL.US, GOOGL.US and AMZN.US finished between 0.14% and 0.39% lower. MRNA.US climbed 14.36% to US$158.83, extending its run since the Intismeran melanoma data it released with Merck on 19 August. XOM.US fell 2.08%. DKS.US dropped 30.68% after guiding fiscal 2026 to US$11.00 to US$12.00 a share against US$14.20 consensus.

Commodities and FX

• Gold: US$4,722.70/oz (+1.76%)
• Brent: US$86.15 (-6.53%)
• WTI: US$81.08 (-4.62%)
• Copper: US$6.707/lb (+1.63%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China: US$95.40/t (+0.06%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7165 (+0.19%)

Every commodity percentage above is settle to settle across the 24 to 25 August sessions, one basis for all six lines. Gold, copper and iron ore each held or gained. Crude gave back more in a single session than it had added over the prior six. Australian resource names open on opposite sides of that split, with energy alone pointing lower.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU gave up 1.43%, 1.33% and 1.12% on Tuesday, before the full 6.53% Brent settle landed.
• Gold: NST.AU closed 24.54, EVN.AU 15.88 and WGX.AU 6.52, each higher on Tuesday, with bullion at a three-month high behind them.
• Iron ore and copper: BHP.AU 67.67, RIO.AU 179.29 and S32.AU 5.13 all closed higher Tuesday. Copper's 1.63% settle and iron ore holding US$95.40/t leave that leg intact.
• Results: WOW.AU, WTC.AU, DMP.AU, NWL.AU and DRO.AU report today. WTC.AU rose 4.55% and DRO.AU 7.44% ahead of the prints, and EOS.AU rose 23.02% on Tuesday's result.
• Lithium: LTR.AU fell 8.68%, PLS.AU 6.03% and IGO.AU 4.90% on Tuesday, against copper and gold both settling higher.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS Consumer Price Index, July 2026. June printed 3.8% annual headline and 3.6% trimmed mean, with the RBA cash rate at 4.35%.
• Pre-open: results from WOW.AU, WTC.AU, DMP.AU, NWL.AU and DRO.AU.
• 06:20 AEST Thursday: NVDA.US second-quarter result, after the US close tonight.

What to watch

• 11:30 AEST brings the first local inflation reading since June's 3.8%. It lands mid-session, not before the open, so the first two hours of trade run without it.
• Energy is one of the smaller sectors in the S&P/ASX 200 by weight, so a 6.53% Brent settle does not by itself overturn a 31 point futures gap.
• SUN.AU rose 7.97% on Tuesday on a takeover report rather than a company announcement.

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