ASX 200 set to open 78 points lower as US strikes on Iran lift Brent 5.38% and sink gold 2.57%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.85%

SPI futures point to the S&P/ASX 200 opening 78 points or 0.85% lower on Wednesday 2 September 2026, after US airstrikes on Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets lifted Brent crude 5.38% to US$95.363 a barrel and knocked gold 2.57% lower to US$4,327.19 an ounce. AAPL.US gained 2.61% to US$325.13 as John Ternus replaced Tim Cook as chief executive, against a Nasdaq that fell 1.03%. The US 10-year Treasury yield settled at 4.797%, up 4.1 basis points, and the Australian 10-year added 8.6 basis points to 5.162%.

Overnight drivers

• Crude: Brent +5.38% to US$95.363 and WTI +5.88% to US$90.805. Two tankers, one Saudi and one South Korean owned, took projectile hits in the Strait of Hormuz on Monday night, and US forces then struck Iranian Revolutionary Guard targets. Brent is up 9.27% over the week. Local energy closed Tuesday ahead of that print: BPT.AU +3.47% at $0.895, STO.AU +1.72% at $8.28, WDS.AU +0.86% at $32.70.
• Bond yields: the US 10-year settled at 4.797%, with the 2-year at its highest since January 2025. Australia's 10-year rose 8.6 basis points to 5.162%, roughly double the US move. CBA.AU closed Tuesday at $159.15 (-0.47%), WBC.AU at $34.36 (-0.55%) and NAB.AU at $38.50 (-0.34%).
• Precious metals: gold -2.57% to US$4,327.19/oz, silver -3.72% to US$64.044, palladium -4.35% and platinum -2.55%, with the US dollar index up 0.23% to 99.654. Gold has fallen 7.10% over the week. The US-listed miners took it harder than the metal: AEM.US -4.54%, NEM.US -2.72%.
• Iron ore: +3.41% to US$99.33 a tonne, the one input working against the indicated open for the index's largest weights. BHP.AU finished Tuesday +0.92% at $66.84, RIO.AU +1.54% at $177.51 and FMG.AU +0.99% at $17.41.
• Copper: -2.36% to US$6.4381 a pound, with FCX.US -4.32% overnight. S32.AU closed +1.55% at $5.24 and MIN.AU +0.57% at $65.00 on Tuesday.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,631.47 (-0.71%)
• Nasdaq: 26,099.77 (-1.03%)
• Dow: 52,766.88 (-0.79%)
• Russell 2000: 2,920.13 (-1.23%)
• VIX: 16.34 (+9.52%)

XLE.US rose 1.27% as COP.US added 2.79%, CVX.US 2.38% and XOM.US 2.24%. XLK.US went the other way at -1.53%, with MU.US -2.64%, AMD.US -2.36% and NVDA.US -1.39%. XLF.US eased 0.88%, while XLU.US held a 0.78% gain. UAL.US fell 3.11% and DAL.US 2.08% on the fuel bill. SLB.US dropped 4.91% while its producer customers rallied.

Small caps lagged: the Russell 2000 fell 1.23% against the S&P 500 at 0.71%, and the VIX added 9.52% to 16.34. Futures pricing has moved this month's Federal Reserve decision to close to even money since chair Kevin Warsh used his Jackson Hole keynote to commit to fighting inflation, and an energy-led price impulse pushes the same way.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,327.19/oz (-2.57%)
• Brent: US$95.363 (+5.38%)
• WTI: US$90.805 (+5.88%)
• Iron ore 62%: US$99.33/t (+3.41%)
• Copper: US$6.4381/lb (-2.36%)
• Thermal coal: US$141.75/t (+1.43%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7149 (-0.28%)

AUD/USD at 0.7149 fell 0.28%, which lifts the Australian dollar receipts of WDS.AU and STO.AU by more than the 5.38% Brent move on its own, and cushions the Australian dollar gold price against the US$4,327.19 spot print. QAN.AU closed Tuesday at $9.37 (-0.53%) and buys jet fuel in US dollars.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Brent at US$95.363 and WTI at US$90.805 are both up more than 9% on the week. BPT.AU, STO.AU and WDS.AU all closed Tuesday higher, ahead of the overnight settle.
• Gold producers face a 2.57% fall in the metal and a 3.72% fall in silver. NST.AU closed at $23.69 (+1.07%), EVN.AU at $14.92 (+0.27%), WGX.AU at $6.46 (+1.41%), GMD.AU at $8.33 (+1.34%) and RMS.AU at $3.90 (+1.83%).
• Iron ore at US$99.33 a tonne partly offsets the index move, because BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU carry more index weight than the gold producers do.
• GMG.AU closed Tuesday at $27.47 (-0.94%), SCG.AU at $3.58 (-0.28%) and TCL.AU at $13.96 (-2.38%), against an Australian 10-year now yielding 5.162%.
• NXT.AU dropped 4.20% to $13.23 on Tuesday and WTC.AU 1.68% to $39.70. The Nasdaq then fell 1.03% overnight.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

• 11:30 ABS June quarter national accounts. Consensus for quarterly GDP growth sits in a 0.2% to 0.4% band, with NAB at the low end and J.P. Morgan at 0.3%.
• 12:00 RBNZ Official Cash Rate decision. A poll of economists put 90% in favour of a hike, and Westpac forecasts the OCR at 2.75%.
• 13:00 RBNZ Governor Anna Breman press conference.

What to watch

• Population growth of at least 0.4% for the June quarter sits at or above every forecast in the GDP consensus band, so a second consecutive fall in GDP per person follows arithmetically from any print of 0.4% or below. The March quarter recorded -0.1% per person.
• Net exports swung from a 0.8 percentage point drag in the March quarter to a 0.1 point contribution in the June quarter, while private non-farm inventories are tipped to subtract about 0.3 points. The composition of the print carries more than the headline number does.
• Australia's 10-year at 5.162% rose 8.6 basis points against the US 10-year's 4.1. An RBNZ hike at 12:00 AEST would put a third developed-market central bank on the tightening side inside the same week.

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