ASX 200 futures rise 0.4% as gold gains 1.4% and a SpaceX spectrum deal sinks US telcos

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.4%

ASX 200 futures rose 0.4% to 8,786 by 7am AEDT on 12 October 2026 (ABC), pointing to an open about 37 points above Friday's 8,716.6 close (The Motley Fool), after the S&P 500 gained 0.59% to 7,811.54 and December gold rose 1.43% to US$4,216.30. TMUS.US fell 13.27%, T.US 9.81% and VZ.US 8.75% after SpaceX agreed to buy a nationwide low-band spectrum portfolio for its Starlink mobile service (CNBC). The BHP.US ADR rose 2.25%, which implies about A$62.09 for BHP.AU against Friday's $60.94 close.

Overnight drivers

• Gold: December gold +1.43% to US$4,216.30 and GDX.US +2.95%, with the US Dollar Index flat at 102.23. NST.AU closed Friday at $24.39 (+1.50%) and EVN.AU at $13.15 (+2.26%).
• Base metals: FCX.US +3.58%, RIO.US +1.54% and BHP.US +2.25%; LME copper rose 1.61% to US$14,540/t (Stockhead). Iron ore fell 0.7% to US$90.60/t on Friday (ABC).
• Telcos: XLC.US -1.51% on the SpaceX deal; Deutsche Telekom fell 8% in Europe (ABC). TLS.AU closed Friday at $4.77 (-1.85%) and TPG.AU at $3.88, both before the US move.
• Yields and banks: the US 10-year rose 1.3 bp to 5.24% and XLF.US gained 0.92%. JPM.US, GS.US and WFC.US report third-quarter results on Tuesday, US time (ABC).

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,811.54 (+0.59%)
• Nasdaq: 27,366.17 (+0.64%)
• Dow: 51,654.95 (+0.83%)
• VIX: 14.84 (-3.70%)

The S&P 500 rose 46.18 points to 7,811.54 on 9 October 2026, 7.39 points below its 6 October record of 7,818.93, and gained 1.2% for the week (AP). Nine of 11 sectors rose (TheStreet). MSFT.US added 2.38% and ORCL.US 4.59%, recovering part of Thursday's 5.48% fall, as reports clarifying OpenAI's revenue eased concern about AI spending (Charles Schwab). SMH.US slipped 0.65% and NVDA.US 0.52%.

The Russell 2000 rose 0.46% to 2,806.98 but fell 0.9% for the week (AP). The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to its lowest reading since May (ABC). In Europe, the DAX rose 1.13% and the FTSE 100 1.06% (Stockhead).

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (December): US$4,216.30/oz (+1.43%)
• Brent (December): US$104.72 (+0.42%)
• WTI (November): US$91.85 (+0.39%)
• Iron ore: US$90.60/t (-0.7%, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.6985 (+0.33%)

Oil companies shut more than 70% of crude production in US waters as Hurricane Isaias moved north, and Houthi strikes hit King Khalid International Airport in Saudi Arabia (ABC). WDS.AU closed Friday at $32.32 and STO.AU at $8.77 (+1.15%). BHP.US at US$86.74 equals two BHP.AU shares, or about A$62.09 at 0.6985, 1.9% above Friday's close.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Gold miners: GDX.US +2.95% follows Friday's local gains in NST.AU, EVN.AU and CMM.AU (+1.38% to $14.74).
• Iron ore majors: the BHP ADR implies A$62.09 while iron ore slipped 0.7%; RIO.AU closed at $162.37 and FMG.AU at $15.34 (-2.85%).
• Telcos: US carriers lost 9% to 13% after the TLS.AU Friday close; Telstra holds its AGM on Tuesday (ABC).
• Defence and data centres: EOS.AU fell 4.25% to $10.13 on Friday, the day it announced an A$700m nationwide counter-drone contract. MGH.AU fell 6.65% to $4.63 after a Firmus update; Stockhead reported the Firmus IPO set for 23 October has been pulled.
• Software: XRO.AU closed Friday at $59.81 (+3.50%) and WTC.AU at $33.63 (+4.25%) before MSFT.US gained 2.38%.

Economic calendar today

• 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 rose 55.7 points to 8,716.6 on Friday
• No Australian or US data releases are listed for today in the Swingfolio economic calendar
• This week: US September CPI at 23:30 AEDT Wednesday, Glencore's ASX listing on Wednesday, the CBA.AU AGM on Wednesday and the September Labour Force survey at 11:30 AEDT Thursday

What to watch

• 37 points is the implied gap between the futures and Friday's 8,716.6 close.
• US$4,216.30 is December gold after a 1.43% rise, with GDX.US up 2.95%.
• 5.24% is the US 10-year yield into Tuesday's US bank results.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.