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ASX 200 futures fall 0.3% as hot US CPI sends the Nasdaq down 1.88%

US CPI 3.7% vs 3.6% expected; S&P 500 -1.11%, SMH.US -3.98%; gold -1.20%; BHP.US implies -1.9%; Labour Force at 11:30 AEDT

Bearish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,728-0.64%
S&P 5007,719-1.11%
NASDAQ26,693-1.88%
Dow51,621-0.09%
VIX16.87+10.48%
Gold4,127-1.20%
Brent106.06+0.35%
AUD/USD0.6974-0.13%
SPI_F8,716-0.30%

ASX 200 futures fall 0.3% as hot US CPI sends the Nasdaq down 1.88%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.3%

ASX 200 futures fell 0.3% to 8,716 by 7:05am AEDT on 15 October 2026 (ABC), after US September CPI rose 3.7% on the year against 3.6% expected and the Nasdaq fell 1.88% to 26,692.87. NVDA.US lost 3.16%, AMD.US 5.73% and MU.US 4.08% as a Fed hike at this month's meeting came back into pricing. BHP.US implies about a 1.9% fall for BHP.AU at the open, with December gold down 1.20% and copper down 1.65%.

Overnight drivers

  • US inflation: headline CPI rose 0.6% in September, in line, but 3.7% on the year against 3.6% expected; core CPI ran 2.6% on the year against 2.5% (Yahoo Finance). CME FedWatch put the chance of a hold this month near 78%, after the Fed's September hike. The US Dollar Index rose 0.36% to 102.55 and AUD/USD fell 0.13% to 0.6974.
  • Chips and AI: SMH.US -3.98%, ASML.US -3.94% despite record third-quarter sales and a raised outlook, TSM.US -3.40% before its results on Thursday, and CoreWeave fell more than 15% (AFP). XLK.US fell 2.98%. XRO.AU closed Wednesday at $59.53 and NXT.AU at $9.57.
  • Precious metals: December gold -1.20% to US$4,127.30 and silver -6.26% to US$55.80 as the hike odds rose; GDX.US fell 4.40%. The All Ords Gold index fell 1.93% on Wednesday, with EVN.AU at $12.55 (-3.16%).
  • Oil: November WTI +1.09% to US$95.17 and December Brent +0.35% to US$106.06 after a container ship sank in the Strait of Hormuz (Bloomberg via Motley Fool). XOM.US rose 1.68%; WDS.AU closed Wednesday at $33.20 (+1.28%).

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,718.94 (-1.11%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,692.87 (-1.88%)
  • Dow: 51,621.48 (-0.09%)
  • VIX: 16.87 (+10.48%)

The S&P 500 lost 86.51 points to 7,718.94 on 14 October 2026 as XLK.US fell 2.98%, while XLV.US rose 2.53% and held the Dow to a 0.09% loss. The Russell 2000 fell 1.93% to 2,729.53. The 10-year Treasury yield traded 6 bp higher at 5.27% mid-morning in New York (Yahoo Finance), and the 13-week bill yield closed up 2.8 bp at 4.085%. NVDA.US fell 3.16%, AVGO.US 3.10%, META.US 3.27% and PLTR.US 3.69%; AAPL.US rose 0.50%.

BAC.US fell 4.76% after third-quarter profit dropped 17% to US$6.93 billion, or US$0.91 a share against US$1.10 expected, including a US$1.2 billion regulatory penalty (Yahoo Finance). MS.US fell 2.75% even though profit rose 7% (AFR). JPM.US rose 1.16% and WFC.US 0.20%; XLF.US closed down 0.55%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold (December): US$4,127.30/oz (-1.20%)
  • Brent (December): US$106.06 (+0.35%)
  • WTI (November): US$95.17 (+1.09%)
  • Copper (December): US$6.615/lb (-1.65%)
  • Iron ore: US$90.45/t (-0.1%, ABC)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6974 (-0.13%)

BHP.US fell 1.99% to US$83.26, which equals two BHP.AU shares, or about A$59.69 at 0.6974, 1.92% below Wednesday's $60.86 close. FCX.US fell 3.87% with December copper down 1.65%. NST.AU closed Wednesday at $24.91 and EVN.AU at $12.55, before gold's 1.20% fall and GDX.US's 4.40% drop. STO.AU closed at $9.03 (+1.35%) ahead of WTI's 1.09% gain.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • Banks: XLF.US -0.55% and BAC.US -4.76% follow a 1.41% fall in the ASX financials index on Wednesday; CBA.AU closed at $151.17 (-2.16%) and NAB.AU at $38.55 (-1.78%).
  • Tech: SMH.US -3.98% and the Nasdaq -1.88% meet an ASX IT index that rose 0.35% on Wednesday; WTC.AU closed at $33.55 (+1.33%) before ASIC dropped its insider trading probe into Richard White and two other WiseTech staff, while it continues to review a fourth person (AFR).
  • Miners: BHP.US implies A$59.69 for BHP.AU; RIO.AU closed at $160.48 (-0.32%) and FMG.AU at $15.32, flat, after the materials index fell 0.88%.
  • Energy: WTI +1.09% follows a 0.80% rise in the ASX energy index on Wednesday; WDS.AU closed at $33.20.
  • AGMs: S32.AU, TWE.AU and ARB.AU hold annual general meetings today (Motley Fool).

Economic calendar today

  • 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed down 56 points at 8,727.9 on Wednesday
  • 11:30 AEDT: Australian Labour Force for September (ABS)
  • Today: South32, Treasury Wine Estates and ARB annual general meetings
  • 23:30 AEDT: US producer prices (BLS)
  • Thursday, US time: Taiwan Semiconductor third-quarter results

What to watch

  • 8,716 is the futures level, about 12 points below Wednesday's 8,727.9 cash close.
  • 3.7% is US annual CPI for September, the highest reading since May (eToro via AFP).
  • 0.6974 is AUD/USD after a 0.13% fall, with the US Dollar Index at 102.55.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →