ASX 200 futures rise 0.97% as the Dow gains 1.08% and gold jumps 2.06%

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.97%

ASX 200 futures rose 0.97% to 8,838 by 7:02am AEDT on 16 October 2026 (ABC), after the Dow gained 1.08% to 52,177.69 as US investors moved from AI stocks into healthcare and consumer names. LLY.US rose 3.55% and UNH.US 2.79%, while HPE.US fell 7.10% and DELL.US 6.80% on concern over AI-related businesses and rising borrowing costs (Capital Brief). AUD/USD fell 0.73% to 0.6924 after Thursday's weak Australian jobs data, and December gold rose 2.06% to US$4,192.50.

Overnight drivers

• Sector rotation: XLV.US +1.86%, XLB.US +1.79% and XLF.US +1.38%, against XLK.US -0.65% and SMH.US -1.04%. HD.US rose 4.31%, NKE.US 5.21% and WMT.US 1.47%. The Russell 2000 gained 1.38% to 2,767.27. CSL.AU closed Thursday at $186.90 (+1.25%).
• AI and chips: NVDA.US fell 1.84% and TSM.US 1.80%, even though TSMC's third-quarter net income rose 68.7% to NT$763.06 billion, above the LSEG consensus of NT$746.3 billion, and fourth-quarter revenue guidance came in at US$52.3 billion to US$54.3 billion (TSMC filing). CRWV.US rose 5.94% to US$69.69 after Nvidia's Jensen Huang said CoreWeave's cost of capital was falling (TradingKey).
• Australian dollar: AUD/USD fell as much as 1.1% overnight to its lowest level since early July (ABC) and sits at 0.6924, after September unemployment rose to 4.7% and markets scaled back bets on an RBA rate rise on Melbourne Cup Day (ABC). The US Dollar Index fell 0.53% to 102.01 over the same session.
• Bonds and gold: the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 10 bp to 5.09%, even after September producer prices rose 1.3% on the month against 0.6% expected. December gold rose 2.06% and silver 3.09% to US$57.61; GDX.US gained 4.34%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,744.06 (+0.33%)
• Nasdaq: 26,713.03 (+0.08%)
• Dow: 52,177.69 (+1.08%)
• VIX: 16.46 (-2.43%)

The S&P 500 added 25.12 points to 7,744.06 on 15 October 2026, recovering from an early fall of 0.64% (TradingKey), while the Dow added 556.21 points. Producer prices rose 1.3% in September, the largest monthly gain since March 2022, and 6.3% on the year (TradingKey). MU.US rose 1.87% and MSFT.US 1.08%; SOXX.US fell 0.91%. SCHW.US fell 2.73% even after its profit beat expectations (Stockhead), and JPM.US closed up 0.07%.

The STOXX 600 rose 0.38% to 640.16 and the FTSE 100 1.08% (Capital Brief). In Asia on Thursday, the Nikkei 225 closed down 4.90% at 64,425.95 and the Hang Seng down 1.03%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (December): US$4,192.50/oz (+2.06%)
• Brent (December): US$105.73 (-0.31%)
• WTI (November): US$97.55 (+2.59%)
• Copper (December): US$6.5625/lb (-1.47%)
• Iron ore: US$89.95/t (-0.6%, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.6924 (-0.73%)

BHP.US fell 0.43% to US$82.90, which equals two BHP.AU shares, or about A$59.87 at 0.6924, 3.22% above Thursday's $58.00 close after a 4.70% fall. Gold in Australian dollars sits near A$6,055/oz, and NST.AU closed Thursday at $24.32 (-2.37%) and EVN.AU at $12.23 (-2.55%). WTI's 2.59% gain came as the IEA agreed to release more than 20 million barrels of diesel and remaining oil from its March emergency release (ABC); WDS.AU closed at $33.36 and STO.AU at $9.19.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Gold miners: GDX.US +4.34% and December gold +2.06% follow a 2.88% fall in the All Ords Gold index on Thursday.
• Big miners: BHP.AU fell 4.70% to $58.00 and RIO.AU 4.85% to $152.70 on Thursday; the BHP.US close implies about A$59.87, with copper down 1.47% and iron ore down 0.6%.
• Banks: XLF.US +1.38% and the US 10-year yield down 10 bp follow a 2.19% gain in the ASX financials index on Thursday; CBA.AU closed at $156.15 (+3.29%) and NAB.AU at $39.71 (+3.01%).
• Tech: DELL.US -6.80% and HPE.US -7.10% follow Thursday falls of 7.42% for NXT.AU, 10.06% for MP1.AU and 3.04% for XRO.AU to $57.72.
• USD earners: AUD/USD at 0.6924, down 0.73%, raises the Australian dollar value of US sales for CSL.AU and RMD.AU, which closed at $33.59.

Economic calendar today

• 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed down 8.2 points at 8,719.7 on Thursday
• 14:30 AEDT: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks at the IMF and World Bank meetings in Bangkok (Capital Brief)
• 23:30 AEDT: US import and export prices for September (BLS)

What to watch

• 8,838 is the futures level, about 118 points above Thursday's 8,719.7 cash close.
• 4.7% is Australia's September unemployment rate, the highest in five years (ABC).
• 5.09% is the US 10-year Treasury yield after a 10 bp fall, with the ASX 200 VIX at 11.38.

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