ASX 200 futures dip 0.1% to 8,826 as the Nasdaq falls 2.14% and Brent jumps 3.72%

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.1%

ASX 200 futures fell 11 points, or 0.1%, to 8,826 by 7:40am AEDT on 19 October 2026 (Capital Brief), after the Nasdaq dropped 2.14% on Friday on concern that AI companies cannot keep borrowing to fund data centres with US bond yields near 5.10%. CRWV.US fell 11.91% as its bonds sold off and yields on them rose above 15% (Capital Brief). December Brent rose 3.72% to US$109.86 on attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries. The AFR expects the local market to be insulated from the US tech selloff.

Overnight drivers

• AI debt and chips: XLK.US fell 3.02% and SMH.US 3.41% on Friday; the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell for an eighth straight session (ABC). NVDA.US slipped 1.43%. The ASX information technology index rose 5.62% on Friday, with XRO.AU +7.05% to $61.79 and WTC.AU +9.01% to $37.61; both now open after the US tech losses.
• Oil: WTI (November) rose 3.51% to US$101.41 and gained 10% for the week, its biggest weekly rise since the week to 17 July (Capital Brief). XOM.US rose 2.46% and XLE.US 2.52%. WDS.AU closed Friday at $33.14 (-0.66%) and STO.AU at $9.11 (-0.87%).
• Australian dollar: AUD/USD rose 0.51% to 0.6959, while the US Dollar Index sits at 101.78. A higher Australian dollar cuts the local value of US-dollar sales at CSL.AU, which closed Friday at $192.20 (+2.84%), and RMD.AU at $34.35 (+2.26%).
• Rates: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose about 1 bp to 5.10%, after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh declined on Thursday to guide on rates before the 27 to 28 October meeting (Capital Brief). XLF.US gained 0.45%. The ASX financials index fell 0.52% on Friday, with CBA.AU -1.13% to $154.38 and WBC.AU -1.57% to $35.15.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,659.44 (-1.09%)
• Nasdaq: 26,140.03 (-2.14%)
• Dow: 52,002.41 (-0.34%)
• VIX: 19.99 (+21.45%)

The S&P 500 lost 84.62 points to 7,659.44 on 16 October 2026 and about 2% for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 4.5% for the week (ABC), its worst weekly result since the April 2025 tariff selloff (Capital Brief). The Russell 2000 fell 1.66% to 2,721.37. US stock futures had not reopened for the week at the time of writing, so Friday's close is the latest US print.

The STOXX 600 rose 0.72% to 644.74 on Friday. In Asia on Friday, the Nikkei 225 gained 1.39% to 65,324.29 and the Hang Seng 0.52% to 24,186.83.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (December): US$4,181.10/oz (+0.26%)
• Brent (December): US$109.86 (+3.72%)
• WTI (November): US$101.41 (+3.51%)
• Copper (December): US$6.5735/lb (+0.26%)
• Iron ore: US$91.20/t (+1.5% on Friday, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.6959 (+0.51%)

BHP.US rose 0.47% to US$83.29, which equals two BHP.AU shares, or about A$59.84 at 0.6959, 0.31% below Friday's $60.03 close after a 3.50% gain. RIO.AU closed Friday at $154.93 (+1.46%). Gold in Australian dollars sits near A$6,008/oz; GDX.US rose 0.79%, after NST.AU gained 3.25% to $25.11 and EVN.AU 3.03% to $12.60 on Friday. ABC reported that the end of a strike at a large Chilean copper mine eased supply concerns.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Tech: XLK.US -3.02% follows Friday gains of 5.50% for MP1.AU to $16.50 and 3.61% for NXT.AU to $9.18, after both lost more than 11% in the week.
• Energy: Brent at US$109.86 sits near Friday's intraday high of US$110, its highest level since May (ABC), against Friday closes of $33.14 for WDS.AU and $9.11 for STO.AU.
• Big miners: the BHP.US close implies about A$59.84 for BHP.AU, with iron ore up 1.5% and copper up 0.26%.
• Takeover targets: CWY.AU fell 6.08% to $2.47 on Friday before an update on EQT's $3.13 per share proposal as exclusivity ends, and INA.AU fell 2.22% to $3.96 with the Warburg Pincus deadline for its board due today.
• Gold miners: December gold +0.26% follows a 3.99% gain for the All Ords Gold index on Friday.

Economic calendar today

• 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed up 87.0 points, or 1.00%, at 8,806.7 on Friday
• 10:05 AEDT: RBA Assistant Governor Christopher Kent speaks at the Commonwealth Bank Global Markets Conference in Sydney
• 13:00 AEDT: China third-quarter GDP, with September retail sales, industrial production and fixed asset investment (ABC; time from a third-party calendar)

What to watch

• 8,826 is the futures level, about 19 points above Friday's 8,806.7 cash close.
• 19.99 is the VIX after a 21.45% jump, against an ASX 200 VIX of 11.13.
• 5.10% is the US 10-year Treasury yield, with Australia's 10-year at 5.23% (ABC).
• BHP.AU reports its September-quarter operational review on Tuesday 20 October.

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