ASX 200 futures fall 0.2% to 8,803 as the Nasdaq drops 2.60% on Meta and chipmakers; Brent rises 3.72%

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.2%

ASX 200 futures fell 0.2% to 8,803 by 6:45am AEDT on 23 October 2026 (ABC) after the Nasdaq lost 2.60% to 26,008.86, its steepest daily drop since early June (Reuters), as META.US fell 6.98% on AI spending and the Philadelphia semiconductor index lost 6.72%. LRCX.US fell 11.76% to US$230.15 after its finance chief said revenue guidance of US$8.6 billion "would have been a bit higher if not for some near-term supply chain constraints". BHP.US implies A$55.27 for BHP.AU, 3.26% below its $57.13 close, with gold down 2.66% and copper 2.75%, while the US 10-year yield fell 19 bps to 4.95%.

Overnight drivers

• META.US -6.98% to US$648.85: the 2026 capex range moved to US$135 billion to US$145 billion and third-quarter free cash flow was negative US$2.12 billion (ABC), its first cash outflow in more than a decade (Reuters). CRWV.US fell 10.06%. NXT.AU closed at $5.75 on Thursday after a 7.48% rebound, and XRO.AU at $63.70.
• US chips -6.72%: AMD.US fell 8.10%, MRVL.US 8.70%, NVDA.US 4.40% and LRCX.US 11.76%; the semiconductor index posted its biggest one-day drop since 23 June (Reuters). WTC.AU closed at $41.00 after a 3.09% gain on Thursday.
• US 10-year yield -19 bps to 4.95%: its lowest in nearly a month (CNBC), as bond traders cut bets on a Fed rise before next week's meeting (Market Index). XLF.US gained 1.09%; CBA.AU closed at $157.17 and NAB.AU at $40.01.
• Brent +3.72% to US$112.87: a five-month high after Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia (Reuters). WDS.US fell 3.18% to US$22.87, which converts to A$32.59, 0.6% below WDS.AU's $32.77 close.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,663.43 (-1.21%)
• Nasdaq: 26,008.86 (-2.60%)
• Dow: 52,867.98 (+0.02%)
• VIX: 19.03 (+14.09%)

The equal-weight S&P 500 rose 0.73% while the cap-weighted index fell 1.21% (Market Index), and NYSE advancers edged decliners 1.01 to 1 (Reuters). 18.79 billion shares changed hands against a 20-session average of 17.19 billion. Nasdaq decliners led advancers 1.37 to 1, with 342 new lows against 82 new highs.

PG.US gained 5.58% on an earnings beat, though it said rising costs would weigh on profit, and LMT.US rose 6.96% after it raised its annual sales and profit forecast (Reuters). RMD.US rose 2.79% to US$253.06, equal to about A$36.06 per RMD.AU share against its $34.81 close. 83% of the 111 S&P 500 companies that have reported third-quarter results beat estimates (LSEG via Reuters).

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,039.80/oz (-2.66%, December contract)
• Brent: US$112.87 (+3.72%, December contract)
• Iron ore 62%: US$90.10/t (-1%, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.7019 (-0.15%)

BHP.US fell 4.01% to US$77.58 as December copper lost 2.75% to US$6.3985/lb and silver 5.34% to US$54.63. FMG.AU closed at $14.57 after Thursday's 4.52% fall. Gold at US$4,039.80 converts to about A$5,756/oz at 0.7019; GDX.US, the gold miners fund, fell 5.80%. NST.AU closed at $24.79 and EVN.AU at $11.84. December WTI rose 2.01% to US$99.10 and STO.AU closed at $9.19.

Key themes for the ASX open

• Miners: BHP.US implies a 3.26% lower BHP.AU price, with iron ore at US$90.10/t and copper down 2.75%; the ASX materials index lost 1.96% on Thursday.
• Gold: GDX.US -5.80% and spot gold -2.85% to US$4,023/oz (ABC) after the oil rally lifted inflation concerns (Motley Fool); the All Ords Gold index fell 1.95% on Thursday.
• Tech and data centres: CRWV.US -10.06% and NVDA.US -4.40% follow Thursday closes of $41.00 for WTC.AU, $63.70 for XRO.AU and $5.75 for NXT.AU.
• Banks and defensives: the 10-year at 4.95% and XLF.US +1.09% follow Thursday's 0.44% gain in ASX financials.
• Energy: Brent at US$112.87 meets WDS.US at an implied A$32.59, after the ASX energy index fell 2.42% on Thursday.

Economic calendar today

• 09:00 AEDT: Australia flash October manufacturing and services PMIs (prior 49.6 and 51.9, Market Index)
• Today: Treasurer Jim Chalmers speaks at the Citi A50 Economic Forum in Sydney (ABC)
• 28 October, 11:30 AEDT: Australia September CPI
• 29 October, 05:00 AEDT: FOMC decision

What to watch

• 8,803 on futures sits 32.4 points above Thursday's ASX 200 session low of 8,770.6 and 3.9 points below its high of 8,806.9; Market Index put futures 19 points, or 0.21%, lower at 8:27am.
• The CSI 300 fell 1.8% on Thursday to stand 20% below its June peak (ABC); the Hang Seng Tech index fell as much as 5.3% in the same session.

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