US Pre-Market July 1 2026: Futures Slip to Start Q3 After Best Quarter Since 2020

Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: -0.27%

US equity futures point lower into the July 1 open, with Nasdaq futures off 0.61% as the 10-year Treasury yield firms 4.4bps to 4.42% and the US Dollar Index adds 0.25% to 101.44. The pullback lands one session after June 30 closed the best quarter since 2020, when AMD.US gained 7.68% to lead a chip-driven Nasdaq to 26,213.72 (+1.52%). Rate-sensitive tech is giving back the most this morning, and today's ADP, JOLTS and ISM Manufacturing prints arrive before a holiday-shortened week.

The setup into the open

• US 10-year yield 4.42%, up 4.4bps from 4.374%. Higher yields weigh most on long-duration tech, and Nasdaq futures (-0.61%) sit below S&P 500 futures (-0.27%) and Dow futures (-0.37%) as a result.
• US Dollar Index 101.44, +0.25%, firming ahead of the 8:15am ET ADP labor read. A stronger dollar trims the translation value of overseas revenue for large-cap exporters.
• Semiconductors lead the give-back: the chip names that carried June 30 sit at the front of the pre-market fade on the first session of Q3.
• Brent US$72.22, -1.00%, and WTI US$69.01, -0.71%. Softer crude keeps energy a drag but eases the inflation input feeding the yield move.

Overnight Asia and Europe

• Nikkei 225: 70,474.96 (+0.59%)
• Shanghai Composite: 4,112.45 (+0.44%)
• Hang Seng: 22,881.02 (-0.63%)
• STOXX 600: 638.26 (-0.54%)
• FTSE 100: 10,437.35 (-0.57%)
• DAX: 24,988.11 (-0.03%)

Asia closed split, with Japan and mainland China higher while Hong Kong slipped 0.63%. Europe trades lower across the board at the US pre-market hour, the STOXX 600 off 0.54% and the FTSE 100 down 0.57% into the New York open.

Coming off a record quarter

June 30 capped Q2 with the Dow at 52,319.20 (+0.26%), its first close above 52,000, while the S&P 500 rose 0.79% to 7,499.36 and the Nasdaq added 1.52% to 26,213.72. Semiconductors led: AMD.US +7.68%, MRVL.US +7.25% and INTC.US +6.01%, with NVDA.US +2.63% and AAPL.US +2.70%. AMZN.US fell 0.75%, the exception among the large-cap leaders. For the quarter, the S&P 500 rose about 14%, the Nasdaq roughly 20% and the Dow about 12%, the strongest three-month run since 2020.

Commodities and the dollar

• Gold: US$4,036/oz (-0.05%)
• Brent: US$72.22 (-1.00%)
• WTI: US$69.01 (-0.71%)
• US Dollar Index: 101.44 (+0.25%)
• US 10-year yield: 4.42% (+4.4bps)

Gold held near US$4,036 after dipping to US$3,973 intraday, steadying as the dollar firmed. The 10-year at 4.42% is the swing factor for whether June 30's tech momentum extends or mean-reverts at the open.

US economic calendar today (ET)

• 8:15am: ADP private payrolls (June)
• 9:45am: S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (final, June)
• 10:00am: JOLTS job openings (May)
• 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing PMI (June)
• 10:00am: Construction spending (May)

What to watch

• Thu July 2, 8:30am ET: the June Employment Situation, pulled forward from its usual Friday slot. Nonfarm payrolls land the same morning the market closes early at 1:00pm ET.
• Fri July 3: US equity and bond markets closed for the Independence Day holiday, as July 4 falls on a Saturday.
• Rates the swing factor: with the 10-year at 4.42%, a hot ADP or ISM print would extend the yield move and keep pressure on the Q2 chip leaders; a soft print would relieve it.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.