Morning briefAfternoon brief
morning

US Pre-Market, July 8: Futures Fall as Trump Calls Iran Ceasefire Over, Brent Jumps 4.54%

S&P 500 futures are down 0.57% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.82% before the open after Trump said the Iran ceasefire was over, sending Brent up 4.54% to US$77.53 and the VIX up 8.8%.

Bearish2 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,504-0.45%
NASDAQ25,819-1.16%
Dow52,925-0.25%
VIX17.55+8.81%
Russell 20002,982-0.90%
US Dollar101.16+0.14%
US 10Y4.565+0.80%
ES_F7,508-0.57%
NQ_F29,151-0.82%

US Pre-Market, July 8: Futures Fall as Trump Calls Iran Ceasefire Over, Brent Jumps 4.54%

Sentiment: bearish S&P 500 futures: -0.57% Nasdaq 100 futures: -0.82%

S&P 500 futures fell 0.57% and Nasdaq 100 futures 0.82% early Wednesday after President Trump, speaking in Ankara, said the memorandum of understanding to end the Iran conflict was over, sending Brent crude up 4.54% to US$77.53 and lifting the VIX 8.8% to 17.55. Energy and defense rose in pre-market while chipmakers extended Tuesday's selloff: Occidental OXY.US up 2.58%, Micron MU.US down 3.51%. The US 10-year yield rose about 4 bps to 4.565% ahead of the June FOMC minutes at 2:00pm ET, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh.

Overnight drivers

  • Iran escalation: Trump said the deal to end the conflict was over after US Central Command launched strikes on Iran late Tuesday, following attacks on three ships in the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude rose 4.54% to US$77.53 and WTI 4.53% to US$73.63; energy and defense stocks led the pre-market gainers.
  • Chip selloff continues: South Korea's Kospi fell 5.35% overnight, extending the Samsung-led semiconductor decline. US chipmakers followed lower pre-market: Micron MU.US -3.51%, Sandisk SNDK.US -3.95%, Marvell MRVL.US -1.80%, AMD.US -1.38%, Nvidia NVDA.US -1.00%.
  • Yields and the Fed: the 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.565% and the 2-year sat near 4.20%. CME FedWatch pricing shows a 72.7% chance the Fed holds at its July meeting; the June minutes at 2:00pm ET are the day's main event.
  • Energy earnings tailwind: Exxon Mobil XOM.US gained 1.59% pre-market after signaling second-quarter earnings could rise about US$5 billion on the oil move.

Overnight Asia and Europe

  • Kospi (South Korea): 7,246.79 (-5.35%)
  • Nifty 50 (India): 23,882.05 (-2.12%)
  • Nikkei 225 (Japan): 66,819.05 (-2.11%)
  • Shanghai Composite: 3,970.88 (-0.49%)
  • Hang Seng (Hong Kong): 24,199.46 (+2.99%)

Hong Kong was the regional outlier, with the Hang Seng up 2.99% while the rest of Asia fell. Europe traded lower into the afternoon session: DAX -1.74%, CAC 40 -1.72%, STOXX 600 -1.23%, FTSE 100 -0.97%.

Pre-market movers

  • Energy leads: OXY.US +2.58%, APA.US +2.33%, HAL.US +1.98%, COP.US +1.91%, CVX.US +1.66%, XOM.US +1.59% on the oil spike.
  • Chips lag: SNDK.US -3.95%, MU.US -3.51%, MRVL.US -1.80%, AMD.US -1.38%, NVDA.US -1.00%, extending Tuesday's close (ARM.US -6.77%, MRVL.US -7.45%, SNDK.US -7.26%, AMD.US -6.51%).
  • FCEL.US -19.32%: FuelCell Energy priced a US$200 million share offering after Tuesday's close.
  • Defense firms up: Lockheed Martin LMT.US +1.14%, Northrop Grumman NOC.US +1.11% on the Middle East escalation.
  • NEM.US -2.02%: Newmont fell with gold, which dropped 1.86% to US$4,080/oz.

US economic calendar today (ET)

  • 10:00am: May wholesale trade and inventories
  • 10:30am: EIA crude oil inventories
  • 2:00pm: June FOMC minutes and economic forecast, the first under Chair Kevin Warsh
  • 3:00pm: May consumer credit
  • After the close: Levi Strauss LEVI.US reports, consensus 24 cents on US$1.52 billion revenue

What to watch

  • Whether energy and defense hold their gains if oil extends higher, and whether the chip selloff spreads beyond semiconductors.
  • The 2:00pm FOMC minutes for any signal on the July rate path under the new Fed leadership, against 72.7% market-implied odds of a hold.
  • Brent at US$77.53 and the VIX at 17.55 as the gauge of how much Middle East risk is priced into the open.

Context only. Not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.

Track every trade. Learn from every week.

Swingfolio logs your entries, exits, and R-multiples automatically — so your weekly review writes itself.

Start freeSee features

Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →

US Pre-Market July 8: Futures Fall on Iran, Oil Jumps | Swingfolio