US Pre-Market August 5, 2026: Futures Firm After July ADP Lands at 44,000
Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: +0.51%
S&P 500 futures trade at 7,805.25, up 0.51%, holding Tuesday's record close of 7,736.52 after July private payrolls landed at 44,000 against a 75,000 consensus. SHOP.US leads the pre-market at +20.52% on second-quarter revenue of $3.58 billion, up 34% and ahead of the $3.45 billion estimate. The 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.61% and gold reached $4,269.90 as the soft labor print followed a call from Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari this morning for higher rates.
Overnight drivers
- Strait of Hormuz talks: Brent sits at $80.00, up 0.81% this morning and down from above $100 at the peak of the US and Iran conflict. Iran and Oman advanced a plan routing ships into the Persian Gulf through an Iranian lane and out through an Omani one. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said an agreement could arrive within days. Cheaper crude feeds the headline inflation path the FOMC is arguing over.
- July ADP at 44,000 (8:15am ET): private payrolls came in under the 75,000 Dow Jones consensus and under June's downwardly revised 95,000, the smallest monthly gain since January. Services added 47,000 while goods-producing employers cut 3,000. Education and health services supplied 36,000 of the total, and job switchers saw pay rise 7%, the most since August 2025.
- Kashkari on rates (8:11am ET): the Minneapolis Fed President said "now is the time to start slowly moving" rates up, with a gradual increase possible from September. He was one of three dissenters who wanted 25 basis points at the July 29 meeting, where the other nine voters held the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75%. Core inflation ran at 3.3% in June against the Fed's 2% target.
- Semiconductors: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 12,179.26 on Tuesday, up 6.55%. MU.US added 7.62%, SNDK.US 10.84% and AVGO.US 6.61%.
Overnight Wall Street
- S&P 500: 7,736.52 (+1.79%), record close
- Nasdaq Composite: 26,584.99 (+2.59%)
- Dow: 54,085.88 (+1.71%)
- Russell 2000: 3,036.98 (+1.85%)
PLTR.US rose 29.45% to $162.66 on growth in its US business. CAT.US gained 5.60% to $876.54 after reporting record quarterly revenue. Technology closed up 4.20% and industrials 3.42%, while energy and utilities finished lower: XOM.US fell 0.71% and CVX.US 1.44% as crude retreated on the Hormuz headlines. The Russell 2000 at +1.85% outpaced the S&P 500, so small caps kept up with the largest technology names.
Overnight Asia and Europe
- Nikkei 225: 66,300.44 (+3.66%)
- Hang Seng: 25,915.82 (+0.24%)
- STOXX 600: 657.61 (+0.11%)
- DAX: 26,247.52 (+0.17%)
- FTSE 100: 10,910.01 (+0.28%)
Tokyo tracked Tuesday's US semiconductor move, with Advantest, Tokyo Electron, Kioxia and SoftBank Group leading a 2,342.91 point advance to a two-week high. Europe is quieter, with all three benchmarks inside 0.3%.
Pre-market movers
| Ticker | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SHOP.US | +20.52% | Q2 revenue $3.58 billion up 34%, Q3 guide above consensus |
| KTOS.US | +13.07% | Q2 revenue beat in every segment |
| ANET.US | +11.90% | Q2 adjusted $1.02 on $3.04 billion vs $0.88 and $2.82 billion |
| BKNG.US | +7.86% | Q2 gross bookings $51 billion vs $49.35 billion consensus |
| LLY.US | +4.73% | Beat on earnings and revenue, raised FY26 revenue guidance |
| DIS.US | +2.92% | Earnings beat, revenue slight miss, $9 billion buyback planned |
| TDC.US | -13.82% | Q3 guidance 55 to 59 cents vs 62 cents consensus |
| SPCX.US | -10.64% | First report since June listing; Q2 capex $18.37 billion, up 550% |
| PINS.US | -9.23% | Q3 revenue guidance of $1.19 to $1.21 billion only matched consensus |
| AMD.US | -7.99% | Beat on revenue and earnings; Q3 guide of $13 billion only in line |
| FLUT.US | -7.68% | CEO Peter Jackson departing October 1, FY revenue guidance cut |
| UBER.US | -2.80% | Q3 bookings guidance $59.25 billion vs $59.33 billion consensus |
AMD.US and SPCX.US both beat and both fell. AMD.US earned an adjusted $1.66 on revenue of $11.54 billion, ahead of consensus, and guided third-quarter revenue to about $13 billion. SPCX.US reported revenue of $7.81 billion against a $6.93 billion consensus, alongside capital expenditure of $18.37 billion that was up 550% on the year. Both closed Tuesday higher, AMD.US by 7.00% and SPCX.US by 9.43%, so this morning reverses direction on each of them.
US economic calendar today (ET)
- 8:15am ADP July private payrolls: 44,000, below the 75,000 consensus (released)
- 10:00am ISM Services PMI for July; the June reading was 54.0
- Friday 8:30am BLS nonfarm payrolls: consensus 83,000, up from June's 57,000, unemployment rate 4.2%
What to watch
- ISM Services at 10:00am ET is the second activity reading of the session, after ADP at 8:15am ET.
- 10-year Treasury at 4.61% is down about 2 basis points from Tuesday's 4.627% close, and gold at $4,269.90 is up 2.82%, both moving opposite to the rate path Kashkari described.
- Market pricing leans toward a hike at the September 15 and 16 FOMC, with higher odds attached to October.
- VIX at 16.77 is up 1.64% while futures point higher across all three indices.
- Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson said Tuesday that rates are already mildly restrictive and favored holding, a split from Kashkari among this year's voters.
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