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S&P 500 futures fall 0.53% as a Walmart comp miss and a 3.64% crude spike outweigh strong US data

Energy leads pre-market while the big retailers follow Walmart lower and the 10-year round-trips the Treasury buyback rally

Mixed4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

S&P 5007,708+0.21%
NASDAQ26,331+0.16%
Dow53,463+0.22%
VIX15.98+7.32%
Russell 20003,033+0.50%
US Dollar98.77-0.07%
US 10Y4.71+1.14%
ES_F7,688-0.53%
NQ_F29,279-0.79%

S&P 500 futures fall 0.53% as a Walmart comp miss and a 3.64% crude spike outweigh strong US data

S&P 500 futures trade 0.53% lower at 7,687.75 before the 20 August 2026 open, with a consumer demand warning from the largest US retailer and a 3.64% crude spike outweighing two stronger than expected 8:30am ET data prints. WMT.US fell 6.79% to $106.54 after second quarter US comparable sales grew 2.6% against a 3.5% consensus and third quarter revenue guidance landed below estimates. The US 10-year yield has round-tripped this week's Treasury buyback rally, back at 4.71% after the Philadelphia Fed index printed 47.4 against 25 expected.

Overnight drivers

Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.79% to 29,279.25 on 20 August 2026, the weakest of the three major contracts, after the S&P 500 closed 0.21% higher at 7,707.98 on Wednesday.

  • 4.71% on the US 10-year, up 5 basis points after the 8:30am ET data, erasing the 5 basis points the Treasury buyback plan took off it on Wednesday. The 30-year sits at 5.19%.
  • 53,135 on Dow futures, down 0.74%, with the Dow having closed at 53,463.05 on Wednesday.
  • VIX rose 7.32% to 15.98 from a 14.89 close.
  • 98.77 on the dollar index, down 0.07%, after Wednesday's 0.86% fall. Gold slipped 0.69% to $4,514 an ounce.

Crude spikes on the Iran escalation

WTI crude rose 3.64% to $87.46 and Brent 3.08% to $94.44 on 20 August 2026 after President Trump threatened Iran with what he called economic warfare and isolation.

  • $94.44 Brent and $87.46 WTI, after Trump warned allied nations of consequences for providing financial support to Tehran.
  • 8 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz have been attacked this month, including ships linked to the UAE and Saudi Arabia.
  • OXY.US +2.36% at $61.50, XOM.US +1.83% at $167.83, COP.US +1.65% at $132.74, CVX.US +1.38% at $208.62, HAL.US +1.36% at $35.50 and SLB.US +0.79% at $54.00 lead the pre-market board.

Overnight Asia and Europe

South Korea's Kospi closed 5.89% higher at 6,852.58 on 20 August 2026, reversing the 5.80% fall it recorded a day earlier.

  • SK hynix rose 12.73% to 1,691,000 won after announcing a 40 trillion won buyback and cancellation program, worth about $28.7 billion.
  • Samsung Electronics gained 9.49% to 271,000 won on expectations it details its own shareholder return policy later this month.
  • 9:57am Seoul time brought a buying sidecar, the 49th triggered on the Kospi this year.
  • Nikkei 225 +1.36% to 66,216.79, Hang Seng +0.80% to 25,698.49 and the Shanghai Composite +0.24% to 3,903.72.
  • STOXX 600 -0.40% at 648.53, DAX -0.63% at 25,927.72, FTSE 100 -0.49% at 10,690.50 and CAC 40 -0.48% at 8,460.94 in mid-session trade.
  • MU.US -1.51% at $923.00, INTC.US -1.93% at $91.01, AMD.US -1.12% at $461.20 and NVDA.US -0.35% at $216.80, against SK hynix +12.73% in Seoul.

Pre-market movers

Walmart WMT.US fell 6.79% to $106.54 in pre-market trade on 20 August 2026 after US comparable sales grew 2.6% against a 3.5% consensus.

  • WMT.US -6.79% at $106.54. Revenue rose 5.9% to $187.9 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.81 beat the $0.74 consensus, but third quarter revenue guidance of $185.6 billion came in 1.4% below estimates. Global e-commerce sales rose 23%.
  • AAP.US -21.68% at $44.01. Revenue was flat at $2.0 billion against $2.04 billion expected, comparable store sales fell 0.5%, and full year revenue guidance of $8.53 billion sits 0.6% below consensus. Adjusted EPS of $1.03 beat $0.81, helped by $26 million of tariff refunds worth about $0.31 of it.
  • DG.US -3.29% at $118.30, LOW.US -2.59% at $215.00, HD.US -1.96% at $337.66, TGT.US -1.69% at $156.43 and COST.US -1.57% at $941.95 moved with the Walmart comparable sales read. Dollar General does not report until 27 August.
  • PANW.US -1.95% at $352.75 and TSLA.US -1.93% at $344.34 lead the non retail decliners, while AAPL.US rose 0.25% to $317.62.

Data and the calendar ahead

US initial jobless claims fell to 206,000 for the week ended 15 August 2026, below the 210,000 consensus, and the Philadelphia Fed index printed 47.4 against 25 expected.

  • 47.4 on the Philadelphia Fed business outlook for August, up from 41.4 in July and the fastest expansion the survey has recorded since November 2021.
  • 206,000 initial jobless claims, down from 212,000 the prior week.
  • 27 to 29 August is the Kansas City Fed symposium at Jackson Hole, where Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first keynote on Friday 28 August.

What to watch

  • $185.6 billion of third quarter revenue guidance at WMT.US sits 1.4% below consensus, on a quarter that beat on both revenue and earnings.
  • 40 trillion won of announced SK hynix buyback leaves Samsung Electronics as the second leg of the trade that moved the Kospi 5.89%.
  • 47.4 on the Philadelphia Fed against 25 expected lands eight days before Warsh speaks at Jackson Hole.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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