Swingfolio Daily — US Markets
US briefings — Friday, September 4, 2026
Pre-market setup and closing-bell recap for Friday, September 4, 2026. Observations only — no trade advice.
Friday, September 4, 2026
US Pre-Market 4 September 2026: Payrolls Settle the Fed's Hike Debate
S&P 500 futures traded at 7,753.75 at 8:31am ET on 4 September 2026, down 0.01%, after the cash index closed Thursday at 7,747.71, up 1.06%, on Fed Governor Christopher Waller's signal that he would hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this month. CME FedWatch cut September hike odds from roughly 67% to 54.6%. August payrolls print at 8:30am ET against a 53,000 consensus and 4.1% unemployment. TSLA.US fell 3.18% after analysts criticised the Cybercab launch, ZS.US 4.95% on FY27 guidance and ADBE.US 4.12% on a CEO succession, while TXN.US, AMD.US and NVDA.US rose on the Hugging Face deal.
S&P 500 slips 0.38% as 162,000 August payrolls lift September hike odds past 60%
The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 on 4 September 2026, down 0.38%, the Nasdaq 0.29% and the Dow 0.51%, after August nonfarm payrolls printed 162,000 against a 56,000 consensus. CME FedWatch odds of a September rate hike moved to 60.2% from 49.4%, the two-year yield rose 7.2 bp to 4.406% and the dollar index added 0.25%. Semiconductors rallied (SMH +2.61%) while software derated (IGV -2.23%). GWRE.US fell 19.93% on fiscal 2027 guidance, LULU.US 17.38% on a second full-year cut and FICO.US 16.68% after the FHFA opened mortgage scoring to VantageScore 4.0.