S&P 500 slips 0.38% as 162,000 August payrolls lift September hike odds past 60%

S&P 500 close: 7,718.60 (-0.38%) Breadth: 87 advancers / 163 decliners across the 250 largest US listings Sentiment: mixed

The S&P 500 closed at 7,718.60 on 4 September 2026, down 0.38%, after August nonfarm payrolls printed 162,000 against a 56,000 consensus and CME FedWatch odds of a September rate hike moved to 60.2% from 49.4% on Thursday. Guidewire GWRE.US fell 19.93% to $162.42, the widest single-name move in the large-cap screen, after fiscal 2027 guidance pointed to 18% ARR growth against the 19% it delivered in fiscal 2026. The two-year Treasury yield rose 7.2 bp to 4.406% and the dollar index added 0.25% to 99.157, which repriced long-duration software while semiconductors rose anyway.

What moved the index

• Consumer discretionary: XLY -1.33%, about 11% of the index and roughly 15 bps of the 38 bp decline. Tesla TSLA.US fell 5.92% after its Austin Cybercab event left pricing and production timing unanswered and federal investigators opened a review of whether a vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals meets motor vehicle safety standards. Lululemon LULU.US fell 17.38% on its second full-year guidance cut of 2026.
• Communication services: Netflix NFLX.US -5.35% and Alphabet GOOGL.US -1.11% pulled XLC down 1.19%, another 13 bps off an 11% weight.
• Financials and health care: FHFA Director Bill Pulte directed Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to accept VantageScore 4.0 from all lenders and called credit bureau pricing cartel-like, which hit the credit-data names inside XLF -0.79%. With XLV -1.04% alongside, the two sectors cost about 19 bps across 22% of the index.
• Technology, the offset: XLK +0.70% added roughly 24 bps on a 34% weight. Semiconductors supplied all of it, SMH +2.61% against software IGV -2.23%.

Those four groups account for about 23 bps of the 38 bp decline. The residual sits in consumer staples (XLP -0.80%), energy (XLE -0.87%) and real estate (XLRE -0.72%), and in the gap between how the sector funds weight their holdings and how the index weights the same names. The index rose 1.06% to 7,747.71 on Thursday after Fed Governor Christopher Waller signalled a hold, and Friday gave back 29 of those 81 points.

Session highlights

• SMH +2.61% against IGV -2.23% put 4.84 points between semiconductors and software in one session.
• MU.US +6.10%, KLAC.US +7.32%, MRVL.US +7.05%, STX.US +6.34% and WDC.US +5.86% led memory and equipment. None of them announced anything; the NAND and DRAM bid widened across storage.
• NVDA.US +0.84% and AVGO.US +0.21% kept the semiconductor rally off the index. The two largest US semiconductor weights moved less than a seventh of what the memory names did, which is why a 2.61% SMH print reached the S&P 500 as roughly 24 bps.
• AAPL.US -2.51% and MSFT.US -2.04% took about 31 bps out of the index between them, most of the 38 bp fall from two names.
• FICO.US -16.68%, EFX.US -6.37% and TRU.US -5.93% fell on the same FHFA directive. Fair Isaac holds the concentrated exposure because most of its recent growth came from mortgage-origination pricing.
• ADBE.US -6.73%, a second day of selling after Thursday's appointment of insider Anil Chakravarthy as chief executive, six days ahead of its 10 September results.

Sector scorecard

• Best: Technology XLK +0.70%
• Worst: Consumer discretionary XLY -1.33%
• Dispersion (best minus worst): 2.03 points
• Technology held the widest internal spread of any sector, 4.84 points between SMH +2.61% and IGV -2.23%, and 22 of the 25 biggest gainers in the large-cap screen were semiconductor or storage names.

Top movers

After the bell

BrenX BRNX.US +25.89% and Focus Universal FCUV.US -35.29% topped Friday's after-hours board, both far below the $2 billion market-cap floor this screen uses, and neither with a stated catalyst. Thursday night carried the earnings that set Friday's session. Guidewire posted revenue of $411 million, up 15%, with adjusted EPS of $0.99 ahead of consensus, and fell 19.93%. UiPath PATH.US posted revenue of $410.3 million, up 13%, beat by $12.5 million and booked a fourth straight quarter of GAAP operating income at $31.6 million, and fell 16.63%. Lululemon reported net revenue of $2.42 billion, down 4.3%, comparable sales down 9%, and cut full-year revenue guidance to a range of $10.35 billion to $10.50 billion. Guidewire and UiPath both beat on the printed quarter and both lost more than 16%.

Next session catalysts (ET)

• Mon 7 Sep: NYSE and Nasdaq closed for Labor Day. Equity and fixed income markets resume Tuesday 8 September.
• Thu 10 Sep: Oracle ORCL.US fiscal Q1 results, consensus $19.13 billion revenue and $1.30 EPS. Adobe ADBE.US fiscal Q3, its first report since naming a new chief executive.
• Fri 11 Sep 08:30: August CPI, five days ahead of the Fed decision.
• Wed 16 Sep 14:00: FOMC decision plus an updated Summary of Economic Projections. Futures closed Friday at a 60.2% chance of a hike.

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