US Pre-Market 4 September 2026: Payrolls Settle the Fed's Hike Debate
Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: -0.01%
S&P 500 futures sit at 7,753.75, down 0.01%, after the cash index closed Thursday at 7,747.71, up 1.06%, on Fed Governor Christopher Waller's signal that he is inclined to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75% this month. TSLA.US leads the pre-market lower at -3.18% after Barclays and Morgan Stanley criticised Thursday night's Cybercab launch in Austin. August payrolls land at 8:30am ET against a Dow Jones consensus of 53,000 and a 4.1% unemployment rate, with CME FedWatch still pricing a 54.6% chance the Fed hikes on 16 September.
Overnight drivers
- Waller cut September hike odds by about 12 points in minutes. CME FedWatch moved from roughly 67% to 54.6% on his remark "Give disinflation a chance. We can wait one meeting." The US 10-year finished Thursday at 4.76%, down 0.71%, after touching 4.818% on Wednesday, and the S&P 500 rose 1.06% with the Dow up 624 points to 53,686.11. Chair Kevin Warsh's Jackson Hole speech in late August had pushed those odds to 60% to 67% beforehand.
- NVDA.US agreed to buy Hugging Face for close to $13 billion, about $11.9 billion payable to stockholders plus up to $1.0 billion of employee retention equity, closing in the first half of 2027. NVDA.US rose 1.80% Thursday and adds 0.95% pre-market, with AMD.US, TXN.US and MU.US following it up.
- August payrolls print at 8:30am ET against a 53,000 consensus and a 4.1% unemployment rate. June and July together produced a net loss of 3,000 jobs, so a hot number revives the hike case Waller talked down.
- ZS.US -4.95%, ADBE.US -4.12%, SNOW.US -1.75%, PLTR.US -1.47% and CRWD.US -1.33% pre-market give back Thursday's software rally. That offsets the chip bid and pins S&P futures at flat.
Where futures sit
- S&P 500 futures: 7,753.75 (-0.01%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures: 29,656.50 (+0.45%)
- Dow futures: 53,682.00 (-0.12%)
- VIX: 14.26 (-0.42%)
- US 10-year: 4.76% (-0.71%)
- Dollar index: 99.04 (+0.14%)
Nasdaq futures at +0.45% against S&P futures at -0.01% splits the pre-market: chips up, software down. QQQ.US holds +0.08% while SPY.US is -0.23% and IWM.US is -0.50%, so small caps are giving back more of Thursday's gain than large caps. VIX at 14.26 is not pricing a payrolls shock.
Pre-market movers
| Ticker | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| TXN.US | +1.64% | Bid with the other chipmakers after a -0.38% Thursday close |
| SNDK.US | +1.42% | Memory follows NVDA.US after a flat +0.10% Thursday |
| AMD.US | +1.01% | Reverses a -0.20% Thursday close |
| NVDA.US | +0.95% | Extends Thursday's +1.80% on the Hugging Face agreement |
| MU.US | +0.63% | Second memory name bid pre-open |
| ZS.US | -4.95% | Q4 beat (EPS $1.19 against $1.09 expected) paired with FY27 revenue guidance of $3.91 billion to $3.94 billion |
| ADBE.US | -4.12% | Anil Chakravarthy named CEO from 1 December, and David Wadhwani is leaving |
| TSLA.US | -3.18% | Cybercab launch drew Barclays and Morgan Stanley criticism |
| HPE.US | -1.92% | Unwinds a +5.04% Thursday close |
| SNOW.US | -1.75% | Unwinds Thursday's +16.55% earnings move |
| XOM.US | -1.07% | Brent -0.76% to $94.79, WTI -0.96% to $90.42 |
SNOW.US closed +16.55% after Q2 adjusted EPS of $0.62 against $0.45 expected, revenue up 35% to $1.55 billion, and a FY27 product revenue guide lifted to $6.07 billion from $5.84 billion. PLTR.US closed +7.71%, ORCL.US +5.69%, CRWD.US +5.68% and DELL.US +4.91%. AVGO.US was the large-cap exception at -2.74%, still working off a fiscal Q3 report where Q4 revenue guidance of $34.8 billion came in under the $35.03 billion consensus.
Overnight Asia and Europe
- Nikkei 225: 65,020.94 (+1.26%)
- Hang Seng: 25,650.87 (+1.74%)
- KOSPI: 6,687.21 (+1.64%)
- STOXX 600: 650.00 (+0.14%)
- DAX: 26,095.22 (+0.35%)
- FTSE 100: 10,830.96 (-0.01%)
Hong Kong led the region at +1.74%, and all three major Asian boards closed higher after Thursday's US session. Europe is flat at mid-session ahead of the US print, with the STOXX 600 up 0.14% and the FTSE 100 unchanged at 10,830.96.
US economic calendar today (ET)
- 8:30am: August employment situation. Nonfarm payrolls consensus 53,000, unemployment rate 4.1%, average hourly earnings in the same release.
- 10:00am: August wholesale inventories.
- 1:00pm: Baker Hughes North American rig count.
What to watch
- 54.6% is the FedWatch hike probability going into 8:30am, so a hike is still the marginal call even after Waller. The payrolls number moves that figure before the opening bell.
- NVDA.US +0.95% and TXN.US +1.64% against ZS.US -4.95% and ADBE.US -4.12% is the split going into the cash open.
- Gold at $4,514.50 an ounce is down 0.56% and the dollar index is up 0.14%, both sitting on the hike side of the pricing.
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