S&P 500 rises 0.73% to 7,722.72 after September payrolls add 29,000 jobs
S&P 500 close: 7,722.72 (+0.73%) Sectors: 10 of 11 SPDR sector funds higher Sentiment: bullish
The S&P 500 closed at 7,722.72 on 2 October 2026, up 0.73%, after September nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against forecasts near 90,000 and cut the priced odds of an October Fed hike from 64% to 16%. TSLA.US gained 4.65% to $370.59 after reporting 486,532 third-quarter deliveries, above a consensus near 463,000. The US 10-year Treasury yield finished 4 bps higher at 5.28% after trading toward 5.17% straight after the report; stocks rose on the lower hike odds while long yields climbed.
What moved the index
The S&P 500 rose 73 bps. Four drivers account for most of it (index weights are approximate):
- Chips: NVDA.US +1.34%, AVGO.US +3.35% and AMD.US +2.95% added about 24 bps; STX.US and WDC.US, each down about 10%, took back roughly 6 bps. Net about 18 bps. The VanEck semiconductor ETF SMH.US rose 2.07%.
- Other large tech and internet: AAPL.US +1.02%, MSFT.US +0.92%, GOOGL.US +1.56% and AMZN.US +1.33% added about 24 bps.
- Tesla: TSLA.US +4.65% on the delivery beat added about 9 bps and lifted the consumer discretionary fund XLY.US 1.13%.
- Rate-sensitive breadth: industrials (XLI.US +0.78%), materials (XLB.US +0.66%) and small caps (Russell 2000 +0.94% to 2,832.89) gained as hike odds fell.
Together, chips, the other large tech names and Tesla account for about 51 bps of the 73 bps move. The remaining 22 bps came from the breadth gain across industrials, materials and smaller companies; financials (XLF.US +0.06%) and health care (XLV.US -0.01%) added nothing.
Session highlights
- 29,000 jobs added in September, with unemployment up to 4.2% from 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.1% for the month (3.0% over the year). Revisions cut July and August by a combined 60,000.
- 16% is the market-implied chance of an October Fed hike after the report, down from 64% before it.
- 30,807.93 was the Nasdaq 100 close, up 1.00% and a record. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.19% to 27,190.86 and the Dow 0.49% to 51,176.96.
- 15.31 was the VIX close, down 6.59%.
- NKE.US fell 3.64% to $33.87 after fiscal first-quarter revenue fell 4% to $11.2 billion, reported after Thursday's close. LULU.US fell 1.46% and DECK.US 0.57%.
- The S&P 500 and the Dow finished the week lower; the Nasdaq Composite finished it higher.
Sector scorecard
- Best: Consumer discretionary, XLY.US (+1.13%)
- Worst: Health care, XLV.US (-0.01%)
- Dispersion (best minus worst): 1.14 pts
- Technology, XLK.US (+1.01%), had the widest internal spread: analog chipmakers VSH.US +11.41%, ALGM.US +8.66% and STM.US +7.03% against hard-drive makers STX.US -10.21% and WDC.US -10.22%. ACN.US fell 6.31%, with EPAM.US -5.30% and G.US -4.06% also lower among IT services names.
Top movers
| Ticker | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| MXL.US | +14.99% | Optical chip demand for AI data centers; stock gained 50.7% in September |
| SYNA.US | +14.08% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| PENG.US | +11.60% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| VSH.US | +11.41% | Analog chip rally; volume near double its one-month average |
| IBRX.US | +10.83% | Chairman Patrick Soon-Shiong backed a PDS Biotechnology share placement |
| WDC.US | -10.22% | Toshiba plans a 60 billion yen hard-drive capacity expansion |
| STX.US | -10.21% | Same Toshiba report; shares were up about 210% this year beforehand |
| TH.US | -8.01% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| UCTT.US | -7.57% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
| GDS.US | -7.48% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven. |
After-hours earnings
NKE.US was the main earnings reaction in Friday's session: it reported fiscal first-quarter results after Thursday's close, with revenue down 4% to $11.2 billion, NIKE Direct revenue down 8% and gross margin up 60 bps to 42.8%. The stock closed Friday down 3.64%.
Notable announcements
- TSLA.US: 486,532 third-quarter deliveries, 464,000-plus vehicles produced and 13.7 GWh of energy storage deployed. Third-quarter results are due after the close on 21 October.
- WDC.US / STX.US: Toshiba plans to invest 60 billion yen to double its hard-drive supply capacity for AI data-center demand.
- ACN.US: fell 6.31% one session after a rally on its fiscal fourth-quarter results; management said organic growth will stay "measured".
- HPE.US: rose 7.36% to $69.33, a record high, after Wednesday's investor day and a $1.2 billion AI server order from Vultr.
- TER.US: gained 8.00% after launching its Magnum E2 memory tester for LPDDR6, DDR6 and GDDR7 chips.
- Paramount and Warner Bros. closed their merger; the combined company is named Skydance.
Macro at the close
| Asset | Level | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| US 10-year yield | 5.28% | +4 bps | Reversed higher after trading toward 5.17% post-payrolls |
| US Dollar Index | 101.92 | -0.17% | Softer after the jobs miss |
| WTI crude | US$91.26 | -1.73% | Brent +0.38% to US$102.70 |
| Gold | US$4,172.10/oz | -0.72% | COMEX front-month futures |
| DAX | 25,231.20 | +1.17% | Weekly change -0.73% |
| Nikkei 225 | 68,309.46 | -0.94% | Hang Seng -2.60% to 23,972.29 |
Next session catalysts (ET)
- Mon 5 Oct, 10:00: ISM services index for September
- Mon 5 Oct: STZ.US reports fiscal second-quarter results
- Wed 7 Oct, 14:00: Minutes of the September FOMC meeting
- Week of 5 Oct: PEP.US, DAL.US and LEVI.US are scheduled to report; times not yet confirmed
- Fri 9 Oct, 10:00: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary October reading
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