ASX 200 ends week down 1.3% as CBA crashes 10%; miners rally on oil and copper

ASX 200 week close: 8,631 (-1.30%) S&P 500 Friday close: 7,408 (-1.24%) Sentiment: mixed

The week on the ASX

The ASX 200 closed Friday at 8,630.8 — down 113.6 points or 1.30% for the week — as a violent two-day bank rout overshadowed broad-based strength in commodities and defensives. Commonwealth Bank (CBA.AU) crashed 10.4% on Wednesday alone after its third-quarter trading update showed cash NPAT of $2.7 billion flat on the half-year average, a $316 million loan-loss top-up, and personal-loan 90-day arrears at 1.71% — the highest reading since the pandemic. It was CBA's worst single session in the 34 years it has been listed, wiping more than $25 billion in market value in one day. NAB (NAB.AU), Westpac (WBC.AU) and ANZ (ANZ.AU) followed it down 4–5% on the week as the federal government's proposed changes to negative gearing added a second leg to the selling — analysts flagged the policy would shrink the property-investor cohort that drives a large share of bank mortgage growth.

Underneath the bank carnage the picture was constructive. Miners and energy names rallied as Brent crude jumped 7.85% to US$109, COMEX copper futures touched multi-month highs above US$6.40/lb intraweek, and Aristocrat Leisure (ALL.AU) capped a strong reporting week with a 13.3% Wednesday surge on its half-year beat. Healthcare split violently: CSL (CSL.AU) lost 18.3% on a guidance cut and US$5bn impairment, while PolyNovo (PNV.AU) added 18.3% on contract momentum and PYC Therapeutics (PYC.AU) ran 16.3% in sympathy. The All Ordinaries closed the week down 1.22% at 8,870.6. AU VIX (AXVI) actually fell 2.61% to 12.68 — the bank-concentrated selling left the rest of the tape composed.

Sector scorecard (5-day)

• General insurers: +5.1% median — IAG (IAG.AU) +10.0%, SUN (SUN.AU) +5.0%, QBE (QBE.AU) +3.3%. Defensive rotation as the bank trade unwound.
• Energy: +4.0% median — WDS (WDS.AU) +4.0%, STO (STO.AU) +4.8% as Brent surged 7.85% on the week.
• Major miners: +3.9% median — BHP (BHP.AU) +4.3%, RIO (RIO.AU) +3.9%, FMG (FMG.AU) +6.3% on the copper rally and resilient iron-ore prints.
• Big 4 banks: -4.3% median — CBA (CBA.AU) -9.4%, NAB (NAB.AU) -4.8%, WBC (WBC.AU) -4.3%, ANZ (ANZ.AU) -4.3%.
• Tech / digital: -4.6% median — XRO (XRO.AU) -4.7%, REA (REA.AU) -8.4%, SEK (SEK.AU) -4.6%, WEB (WEB.AU) -11.3%. Long-duration names hit by rising bond yields and the negative-gearing overhang on property platforms.
• Dispersion: insurers minus tech = ~9.6 percentage points — one of the wider sector splits since February.

Top movers — week ending 15 May 2026

Friday US session

• S&P 500: 7,408 (-1.24%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 26,225 (-1.54%)
• Dow Jones: 49,526 (-1.07%)
• VIX: 18.43 (+6.78%)
• Brent crude: US$109.24 (+3.33%)
• Gold: US$4,544/oz (-3.02%)

US markets reversed late-week on a triple-hit: a Trump-Xi summit ended without policy breakthroughs, Brent crude spiked toward US$109 on a flare-up around the US-Iran agreement, and benchmark Treasury yields jumped on the week as inflation fears resurfaced. Bonds had their worst weekly rout in a year. AI chipmakers led the selling: Intel (INTC.US) fell more than 6%, AMD (AMD.US) -5.7%, Micron (MU.US) -6.6%, Nvidia (NVDA.US) -4.4%. Fed-funds futures markets shifted, with traders now pricing a higher probability of a rate move into early 2027 after a string of firmer inflation prints. AUD/USD ended the week at 0.715 (-0.77%), giving ASX USD-earners a modest tailwind into Monday.

Macro themes that played out

The dominant theme was Australia-specific: a Reserve Bank that has been tightening — the May meeting raised the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35% on an 8-1 vote with one member dissenting for a hold — collided with a federal-budget proposal to restrict negative gearing, hitting the Big 4 banks from two sides simultaneously. CBA's Q3 update operationalised the macro concern, with 90+ day personal-loan arrears at the highest reading since the pandemic. The second theme was commodity strength: Brent's 7.85% weekly surge, copper futures touching multi-month highs above US$6.40/lb, and iron-ore holding firm gave BHP, RIO and FMG a constructive backdrop that partially offset the financials drag. The third was a single-stock healthcare reset — CSL's FY26 revenue cut to US$15.2bn and the additional US$5bn impairment against the Vifor acquisition marked a major valuation reset for a stock that had been a defensive staple. Finally, the US ended the week pricing in renewed inflation risk on the back of oil and a Trump-Xi summit that produced no concrete deliverables, which sets up an inflation-watching tone for Monday's open in Sydney.

Week ahead — Mon to Fri (AEST)

• Mon 18 May — Quiet AU/US data day. Monday's ASX open will price Friday's US sell-off (S&P -1.24%, VIX +6.8%) against Brent crude at US$109 — commodity-heavy ASX has a structural offset US tech does not.
• Tue 19 May — RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter speaks at the Bloomberg Forum for Investment Managers in Sydney at 9:25 am AEST; RBA Minutes from the May Monetary Policy Board Meeting (which raised the cash rate to 4.35%) released at 11:30 am AEST. Both are the week's anchor for AU rate-path expectations.
• Wed 20 May — AU Q1 Construction Work Done print typically lands mid-week; reads through to private capex and Q1 GDP. Watch for negative-gearing legislative commentary out of Canberra.
• Thu 21 May — Continuing scattered FY/HY company results; ASX reporting calendar is mid-cycle so expect lower volume. Trump administration China-policy headlines remain a wildcard after Friday's stalled summit.
• Fri 22 May — AU Flash Composite, Manufacturing and Services PMIs (S&P Global) typically print Friday — last reading had Composite at 50.1, just above the contraction line. Any sub-50 read after the RBA hike would reset the cyclical tape.

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