ASX carries a firm Wall Street lead into EOFY as a Fed ruling and Iran calm lift global tech

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +10 pts (+0.1%) Wall Street: S&P 500 +1.18% to 7,440, Nasdaq +2.07% to 25,820, Dow +0.59% to 52,183

Wall Street rallied on Monday as the Nasdaq Composite rose 2.07% to 25,820 and the S&P 500 added 1.18% to 7,440, after the Supreme Court ruled Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook keeps her seat and Washington and Tehran agreed to stop the weekend's tit-for-tat strikes, clearing two of the market's largest overhangs at once. Alphabet GOOGL.US climbed 4.82% in its first session as a Dow member, pushing the Dow above 52,000 for the first time, while Applied Materials AMAT.US rose 10.82% and KLA KLAC.US 11.97% in a sharp chip rebound. The S&P/ASX 200 closed Monday at 8,823, up 0.68%, and SPI futures point to an open about 10 points higher on the last trading day of the Australian financial year, when tax-loss selling and quarter-end rebalancing can blur a single session.

Overnight drivers

• Fed independence upheld: The Supreme Court rejected the move to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook, carving out an exception that shields the central bank even as it widened presidential firing power elsewhere. Equities took it as a risk-on signal; the VIX fell 4.13% to 17.65 and the US 10-year held at 4.37%. Positive for ASX rate-sensitives at the open, banks and REITs among them.
• US and Iran step back: Both sides agreed to halt the weekend attacks, deflating the Strait of Hormuz premium. Brent fell 0.45% to US$73.58 and WTI 0.59% to US$70.33 as the threat to shipping receded, a softer setup for the local energy sector.
• Chips and AI rebound: The VanEck Semiconductor ETF SMH.US gained 3.33%, with Astera Labs ALAB.US the standout at 16.39%. The pickup in chip sentiment sets a firmer tone for local tech and data centres.
• Leadership stayed in a few names: Tesla TSLA.US rose 8.46% after a US regulator closed a vehicle safety review, Amazon AMZN.US gained 3.20% and Meta META.US 2.24%, yet Apple AAPL.US fell 0.72% and Microsoft MSFT.US 1.18%. The rally leaned on a handful of large stocks rather than the whole top tier.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,440.43 (+1.18%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,820.14 (+2.07%)
• Dow: 52,182.74 (+0.59%)
• Russell 2000: 3,010.42 (+0.01%)
• VIX: 17.65 (-4.13%)

The Russell 2000 finished flat while the Nasdaq jumped 2.07%, so the gains sat with the largest growth names rather than the broad market. Alphabet GOOGL.US replaced Verizon VZ.US in the Dow, and Verizon fell 5.24% on the way out. A separate space deal added to the move as Rocket Lab RKLB.US rose 15.93% on its agreement to buy Iridium IRDM.US, which jumped 25.44% on a cash-and-stock offer of US$54 a share.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,025/oz (-0.32%)
• Brent: US$73.58 (-0.45%)
• WTI: US$70.33 (-0.59%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: firmer near US$96/t (SGX July contract +US$1.35)
• Copper: US$6.18/lb (+0.19%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6890 (-0.16%)

Gold slipped 0.32% to US$4,025/oz as the US dollar index eased 0.24% to 101.11. The AUD held at 0.6890, below 69 US cents, after a 0.16% dip overnight. Copper firmed 0.19% to US$6.18/lb and iron ore held near US$96 a tonne, a steady setup for the iron-ore majors BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• Banks and REITs: a flat 10-year at 4.37% and a calmer VIX are a steadier backdrop for CBA.AU, NAB.AU and the rate-sensitive names that led Monday's local advance.
• Tech and data centres: the chip rebound and a 2.07% Nasdaq gain set a firm tone for WTC.AU, XRO.AU and NXT.AU.
• Energy: Brent at US$73.58 after the Iran de-escalation points to softer support for WDS.AU and STO.AU.
• Gold miners: spot bullion at US$4,025/oz and a softer dollar leave NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU without an overnight push higher.
• USD earners: an AUD at 0.6890 keeps the currency working in favour of CSL.AU, RMD.AU and BXB.AU on translation.

Economic calendar today

• End of the Australian 2025-26 financial year. Today is the last session for crystallising capital gains and losses, and a window that often lifts turnover in beaten-down names.
• 10:00 AEST: ASX 200 open, with SPI futures pointing about 10 points (0.1%) higher.
• July 1 brings a batch of regulatory and superannuation changes that take effect with the new financial year.

What to watch

• Whether the modest 0.1% futures lead holds through the session, given quarter-end and end-of-financial-year positioning can distort single-day moves.
• Breadth at the open: Monday's US advance was narrow, with the Russell 2000 flat, so the ASX move may concentrate in tech and the largest names.
• Resources direction, with iron ore near US$96/t and copper up 0.19% against softer oil and gold.

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