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ASX to open higher as US-Iran peace deal sinks oil and lifts Wall Street; RBA decides today (16 June 2026)

Wall Street rallied on a US-Iran ceasefire that crashed crude. The ASX 200 is indicated up 1.2% at the open, before the RBA cash rate call at 2.30pm AEST.

Bullish3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,914+1.25%
S&P 5007,554+1.65%
NASDAQ26,684+3.07%
Dow51,671+0.92%
VIX16.2-8.37%
Gold4,333-0.43%
AUD/USD0.7072+0.33%

ASX set to open higher as a US-Iran peace deal sinks oil and lifts Wall Street, RBA decides at 2.30pm

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 (indicated open): +1.2%

A preliminary US-Iran agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz crashed crude and powered the S&P 500 up 1.65% to 7,554.29 and the Nasdaq up 3.07% to 26,683.94. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index led the move at +5.45%, with Nvidia NVDA.US +3.54% and Meta META.US +4.67%. The S&P/ASX 200 last closed at 8,804 and is indicated up about 1.2% to converge on that lead, with the 2.30pm AEST RBA cash rate decision the day's domestic pivot.

What drove the overnight session

  • US-Iran peace deal: President Trump declared a deal "complete" late Sunday and flagged a Friday signing in Switzerland, reopening the Strait of Hormuz that carries roughly a fifth of seaborne oil. Brent fell 4.8% to US$83.64 and WTI about 5% to US$81.38, the lowest since the conflict began in early March.
  • Lower oil feeds growth: the crude drop eased the inflation impulse, pulling the US 10-year yield down 1.8bp to 4.47% and the dollar index to 99.66. That bid up rate-sensitive tech, with the Nasdaq adding 3.07% and the SOX semiconductor index 5.45%.
  • Volatility crushed: the VIX dropped 8.4% to 16.20 as the war-risk premium unwound. Gold eased to US$4,333/oz as safe-haven demand faded.
  • SpaceX debut: SpaceX SPCX.US extended its record IPO, up about 19% on its second trading day, keeping risk appetite elevated into the close.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,554.29 (+1.65%)
  • Nasdaq: 26,683.94 (+3.07%)
  • Dow: 51,671.03 (+0.92%, a record close)
  • Russell 2000: 2,965.09 (+0.72%)
  • VIX: 16.20 (-8.37%)

All three majors closed higher and the Dow set a fresh record. Every Magnificent Seven name rose: beyond Nvidia and Meta, Amazon AMZN.US gained 3.13%, Alphabet GOOGL.US 2.69%, Microsoft MSFT.US 2.31% and Apple AAPL.US 1.82%. Fuel-sensitive cyclicals led the rotation as crude fell, with Boeing BA.US up 4.52% and US airlines and cruise operators among the strongest sectors.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,333/oz (eased as the war-risk premium unwound)
  • Brent: US$83.64 (about -4.8%)
  • WTI: US$81.38 (about -5%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: near US$98/t (about -1%)
  • Copper: US$6.48/lb (-0.20%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7072 (+0.33%)

Lower crude is a headwind for energy producers Woodside WDS.AU and Santos STO.AU, and a tailwind for fuel-heavy Qantas QAN.AU after weeks of conflict-driven oil strength. The softer bullion print weighs on gold miners Northern Star NST.AU and Evolution EVN.AU. A weaker US dollar and the risk-on tone lifted the Australian dollar to US$0.7072.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Tech and growth: the Nasdaq's 3.07% jump and the SOX at +5.45% set a firm lead for WiseTech WTC.AU, Xero XRO.AU and NextDC NXT.AU.
  • Energy reverses: a 4.8% Brent fall pressures WDS.AU and STO.AU after weeks of war-driven gains.
  • Gold pulls back: with the safe-haven bid fading, NST.AU and EVN.AU face a softer bullion backdrop near US$4,333/oz.
  • Banks and the RBA: a 1.8bp fall in US yields and the 2.30pm rate call frame the big four, CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU.
  • Iron ore majors: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU open with iron ore near US$98/t and the AUD firmer at US$0.7072.

Economic calendar today (AEST)

  • 10.00am: ASX cash open; the S&P/ASX 200 is indicated up about 1.2% on the Wall Street lead.
  • 2.30pm: RBA cash rate decision, day two of the 15-16 June board meeting. The cash rate sits at 4.35% after three hikes in 2026; consensus leans to a hold, with Westpac the outlier tipping a rise to 4.85%. Governor Bullock's press conference follows.

What to watch

  • Any shift in the RBA's tone at 2.30pm, after the bank hiked through May on a three-year inflation peak that oil-driven costs are now easing.
  • The US Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair, with CME FedWatch pricing a greater than 98% chance of no change.
  • Follow-through in semiconductors after the SOX index's 5.45% jump, a direct read for the local tech sector.

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