ASX 200 set for a lower open as Iran strikes sink Wall Street and lift oil

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: pointing lower (Wall Street cash closed 1.6% to 2.0% down; S&P 500 e-minis a further 0.31% softer at 8:30am AEST)

The S&P 500 closed 1.62% lower at 7,266.99 on 10 June 2026 as the US and Iran traded military strikes and President Trump warned Tehran would "have to pay the price", sending the VIX up 11.83% to 22.22. Brent crude jumped 2.06% to US$95.02 on Strait of Hormuz supply fears, the clearest cross-asset move of the session and another weight on the inflation debate. The ASX 200 closed at 8,604.2 on Wednesday and is set to open lower, with energy the one sector pointing higher.

What drove the overnight session

• US-Iran escalation: S&P 500 -1.62%, Nasdaq -1.98%, Dow -1.87%. The US and Iran traded strikes after a US Apache helicopter was downed near the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump's "pay the price" post turned a standoff into a selling catalyst. The ASX 200 opens lower, tracking the Wall Street cash close.
• Oil supply-risk bid: Brent +2.06% to US$95.02, WTI +2.47% to US$92.25. A Hormuz disruption threat put a supply bid back into crude after late-May weakness. That supports WDS.AU and STO.AU and feeds the inflation read.
• Gold sold off despite the risk-off session: -1.70% to US$4,063, its lowest since late March. A firmer US dollar (DXY +0.17% to 100.08) and higher real yields, with a strong May US payrolls print keeping a November Fed hike near 50/50, outweighed gold's usual haven bid. That pressures NST.AU and EVN.AU at the open.
• AUD below 70c: AUD/USD -0.43% to 0.6995 on US dollar strength. A sub-70c handle lifts the AUD value of USD revenue for CSL.AU, JHX.AU and RMD.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,266.99 (-1.62%)
• Nasdaq: 25,169.50 (-1.98%)
• Dow: 49,918.78 (-1.87%)
• VIX: 22.22 (+11.83%)

The Nasdaq took the steepest hit as tech extended a soft fortnight, with Industrials off more than 3% and Materials more than 2% on TheStreet's sector tally. The Russell 2000 fell a smaller 1.10%, and the US 10-year yield rose just 1.4bps to 4.542%, so this was driven by the conflict, not by yields. The VIX close above 22, up 11.83%, shows how fast demand for protection returned.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,063/oz (-1.70%)
• Brent: US$95.02 (+2.06%)
• WTI: US$92.25 (+2.47%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: around US$102/t (SGX), holding near its highest since January
• Copper: US$6.179/lb (-1.40%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6995 (-0.43%)

Energy is the one clear positive for the local resource complex: crude up about 2% lifts the earnings read for WDS.AU and STO.AU. Iron ore near US$102/t on SGX supports BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU, while gold -1.70% and copper -1.40% skew the broader miner read negative into the open.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: Brent +2.06% to US$95.02 lifts WDS.AU and STO.AU.
• Gold miners: bullion -1.70% to its lowest since late March pressures NST.AU and EVN.AU.
• USD earners: AUD at 0.6995 supports the translated earnings of CSL.AU, JHX.AU and RMD.AU.
• Volatility: VIX +11.83% to 22.22 points to a wider opening range than the local market has seen for a fortnight.

Economic calendar today

• No major domestic data lands today. The ABS CPI for May is due 24 June; consumer inflation expectations already eased to 5.6% in May from 5.9% in April.
• The RBA rate decision next week is the key local catalyst, with the market leaning toward a pause after three hikes since January.

What to watch

• Energy strength versus risk-off selling: which one sets the opening tone.
• The AUD at 0.6995: a sustained move below 70c changes the translation maths for offshore earners.
• Any follow-through on the Strait of Hormuz, which would keep the oil bid and the volatility premium in play.

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