ASX set for a sharp higher open as oil tumbles on a US-Iran peace deal

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +2.0% (pre-open indicative, ~8,800)

A weekend move toward a US-Iran peace deal and a reopened Strait of Hormuz drained oil's supply-disruption premium, sending Brent down 3.54% to US$84.24 and the VIX down 9.05% to 17.68 as risk appetite returned. SpaceX (SPCX.US) closed its Nasdaq debut up 19.3%, the largest IPO on record at a US$2 trillion valuation, reviving the AI and tech bid that pushed US futures up overnight. The pre-open indicative puts the S&P/ASX 200 near 8,800, about 2% above Friday's 8,633.2 close, with gold and tech set to lead and energy the lone drag.

What drove the overnight session

• Oil's premium drained: Brent -3.54% to US$84.24, WTI -4.16% to US$81.35 as a US-Iran peace framework and a reopened Strait of Hormuz removed the supply-disruption premium. Negative for energy (WDS.AU, STO.AU) and a fuel-cost cut for QAN.AU and transport names.
• Fear unwind: VIX -9.05% to 17.68; S&P 500 +0.50%, Dow +0.70% on Friday, with S&P e-minis (ES=F) +0.81% and Nasdaq-100 futures (NQ=F) +1.34% extending the move in the Sunday reopen. Supportive for the banks (CBA.AU, NAB.AU) and the index overall.
• SpaceX debut and the AI bid: SPCX.US +19.3% on day one and as much as +31% intraday (US$176.52 peak), with Intel, AMD and KLA up 4% to 5%. A read-through to ASX tech: WTC.AU, XRO.AU, NXT.AU.
• Gold rebound: gold (GC=F) +1.62% to US$4,307/oz, extending its recovery off Thursday's six-month low as the US dollar index slipped 0.26% to 99.49. A tailwind for the index's gold weight: NST.AU, EVN.AU, NEM.AU.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,431.46 (+0.50%)
• Nasdaq: 25,888.84 (+0.31%)
• Dow: 51,202.26 (+0.70%)
• VIX: 17.68 (-9.05%)

US stocks closed out a positive week, with the Dow's 0.70% gain led by cyclicals and materials as the oil drop eased the near-term inflation picture. SpaceX's record listing dominated session volume and pulled chip and AI names higher, while the Russell 2000 added 0.79% as participation widened. The US 10-year yield ticked up 2.4 basis points to 4.487% after a hotter May producer-price print (1.1% versus 0.6% expected) kept the Fed on hold into this week's decision.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,307/oz (+1.62%)
• Brent: US$84.24 (-3.54%)
• WTI: US$81.35 (-4.16%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$101.6/t (roughly flat)
• Copper: US$6.508/lb (+0.98%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7081 (+0.35%)

Gold and copper firming against a 3.5% oil drop points to a split materials open: BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU lean on copper and the risk-on tone rather than iron ore, which held near US$101.6/t. The firmer AUD at US$0.7081 trims AUD-translated earnings for USD names such as CSL.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: gold's 1.62% rebound off a six-month low points NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU higher.
• Tech: NQ=F +1.34% and the SpaceX-led AI bid favour WTC.AU, XRO.AU and NXT.AU.
• Energy: Brent -3.54% and WTI -4.16% leave WDS.AU and STO.AU as the likely laggards.
• Banks: the broad risk-on tone and firmer US futures support CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU.

Economic calendar today

• No major Australian data scheduled (Monday).
• The week turns on central banks: the BoJ and RBA both decide Tuesday, the Fed early Thursday AEST.

What to watch

• The RBA decides Tuesday at 2:30pm AEST, with futures near 100% priced for a hold at 4.35% after May's hike; the statement tone is the read given softer domestic data (Westpac consumer confidence -2.9% to 80.6 in June).
• The Fed decision lands Thursday at 4:00am AEST, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh, and is expected to hold.
• The oil drop and the risk-on gap could fade through the session if the ceasefire wobbles.

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