ASX 200 ends flat at 8,840.7 as CBA cancels out BHP's copper guidance cut
ASX 200 close: 8,840.7 (-0.005%) Breadth: 116 advancers / 91 decliners Sentiment: mixed
The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,840.7 on 16 July 2026, down 0.4 points, as a 1.84% gain in CBA.AU offset a 2.34% fall in BHP.AU after the miner guided FY27 copper output 12% below FY26 at the midpoint. BHP.AU handed back all of Wednesday's 3.4% rally, which it had built going into the report. US June producer prices fell 0.3% month on month overnight against a flat consensus, sending bond yields lower for a second session and lifting Australian financials.
What moved the index
- CBA.AU +1.84%: worth roughly 19 basis points on an index weight near 10.5%, with no company announcement behind it. Financials rose in 19 of the 26 names priced and averaged +1.00%, with NAB.AU +1.25% and ANZ.AU +0.72% adding about 8 basis points between them as the US 10-year yield eased to 4.545%.
- BHP.AU -2.34%: worth roughly 20 basis points of drag, almost exactly cancelling CBA.AU. FY27 copper guidance of 1,650-1,800kt sits 12% below FY26's 1,952.8kt at the midpoint on an Escondida grade decline, and FY26 iron ore of 264.7Mt landed inside the 258-269Mt guidance range.
- Critical minerals names, -4.3% on average: worth roughly 9 basis points. PMT.AU -6.86%, ELV.AU -4.65%, BRE.AU -4.18%, DYL.AU -3.69%, PLS.AU -3.66%, SLX.AU -3.48% and MIN.AU -3.35% fell without a company disclosure between them.
- Energy, -1.02% on average across 10 names, 1 up and 9 down: worth roughly 6 basis points. WDS.AU -1.47%, STO.AU -1.82% and WHC.AU -2.84% tracked Brent at US$84.44 (-0.60%), with Chinese refinery runs down 18% year on year in June to 51.24m tons, the weakest in six years.
Financials added about 27 basis points and basic materials took away about 41. Consumer cyclicals (+1.58% across eight names, led by WES.AU +1.21%), REA.AU +6.61% and healthcare covered the balance, leaving the index 0.4 points lower. The two largest weights on the exchange moved almost the same distance in opposite directions, which is why a session with 116 advancers finished flat.
Session highlights
- REA.AU +6.61% to $158.71 was the largest single-name lift, worth about 5 basis points, on turnover near its recent average and no disclosure. Unannounced, likely flow-driven.
- WBT.AU -6.46%, ELS.AU -3.97%, NXT.AU -2.61% and MP1.AU -2.35% followed the overnight US semiconductor selloff, where Micron fell 8%, Intel more than 4% and AMD 3%.
- WTC.AU +2.07%, XRO.AU +1.19% and TNE.AU +1.19% rose while those four fell, repeating Wall Street's rotation out of chips and into software inside the local technology group.
- AMP.AU +9.83% to $1.90 topped the gainers on its scheduled 2Q26 cashflows update day, alongside record June-quarter funds under administration at Netwealth and a record $14.5bn under management at Australian Ethical.
- 8,808.1 marked the session low against a 8,856.2 high, a 48-point range on an index that finished 0.4 points down.
Sector scorecard
- Best: consumer cyclicals, eight names averaging +1.58%, 7 up and 1 down
- Worst: technology, seven names averaging -1.56%, 3 up and 4 down
- Dispersion (best minus worst): 3.1 pts
- Basic materials split widest: 41 names, 10 up and 31 down, ranging from FBU.AU +3.64% to PMT.AU -6.86%
Top movers
| Ticker | Move | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| AMP.AU | +9.83% | Scheduled 2Q26 cashflows day; wealth platforms bid |
| MSB.AU | +6.95% | Ryoncil momentum; US$36m Q4 net revenue posted 10 July |
| REA.AU | +6.61% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven |
| BNZ.AU | +5.79% | Gold explorer; unannounced, likely flow-driven |
| TAH.AU | +5.20% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven |
| EOS.AU | -7.75% | Unannounced, likely flow-driven |
| EQR.AU | -7.55% | Tungsten; sector-wide critical minerals selling |
| PMT.AU | -6.86% | Lithium; sector-wide selling, no company disclosure |
| WBT.AU | -6.46% | Followed Micron -8% and Intel -4% in the US chip selloff |
| ELV.AU | -4.65% | Lithium; sector-wide selling, no company disclosure |
Notable announcements
- BHP.AU posted FY26 copper of 1,952.8kt, a second straight year near 2Mt, with Q4 copper of 491.9kt against 490.6kt estimates and Q4 iron ore of 68.1Mt against 68.3Mt estimates
- EQT lifted its indicative bid for PPT.AU to $22.07 a share, up 2% on the earlier $21.64, against a $25 floor PPT.AU directors are reported to see for any change of control
- OBM.AU delivered record Q4 gold of 39.6koz against 39.0koz estimates, with all-in sustaining costs of $3,870/oz running 9% above expectations
- PXA.AU +3.15% following a business update
At the AU close (16:15 AEST)
| Asset | Level | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 7,611.0 | -0.05% | Cash closed +0.38% to 7,572.40 overnight |
| Nasdaq 100 futures | 29,638.5 | -0.18% | Cash Nasdaq closed +0.62% to 26,269.23 |
| VIX | 15.84 | +1.08% | Cash session |
| US 10-year yield | 4.545% | -0.87% | Second straight session lower after soft PPI |
| Brent | US$84.44 | -0.60% | Chinese June refinery runs down 18% year on year |
| Gold | US$4,030.4/oz | -0.53% | |
| AUD/USD | 0.7000 | -0.11% | Sitting on the 70 cent line |
Next 24h catalysts (AEST)
- Fri 09:00: SPI open, tracking US futures that sat at ES -0.05% and NQ -0.18% into the AU close
- Thu 23 July: ABS Labour Force for June, the next scheduled read on the domestic labour market. The May unemployment rate was 4.4%
- Through July: resources quarterly production reports continue after RIO.AU on Wednesday and BHP.AU today
- Overnight: US Q2 earnings season runs on after BlackRock lifted assets under management 22% to US$15.34tn and Morgan Stanley posted record revenue of US$21.35bn
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