ASX 200 set to open 0.15% higher as softer US inflation lifts tech and gold: 16 July 2026

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.15%

Wall Street closed higher on a softer US wholesale inflation print, the S&P 500 up 0.38% to 7,572.4 and the Nasdaq up 0.62% to 26,269, and ASX SPI 200 futures point to a 0.15% higher open. Apple AAPL.US led the largest tech names, up 4.01% to a record high after winning approval to launch generative-AI features in China, while BlackRock BLK.US jumped 6.63% on a second-quarter earnings beat. The US 10-year yield eased 4 basis points to 4.545% and the VIX fell 5.03% to 15.67, a risk-on backdrop that lifted AUD/USD back above 0.70.

Overnight drivers

• The largest US platforms led the Nasdaq: AAPL.US +4.01% to a record high on China AI approval, GOOGL.US +3.17%, META.US +3.07%, AMZN.US +3.02% and MSFT.US +2.78% together lifted it 0.62%. Positive for ASX technology WTC.AU, XRO.AU and TNE.AU.
• Softer US wholesale inflation: a cooler-than-forecast PPI print pushed the US 10-year yield down 4 basis points to 4.545% and knocked the VIX down 5.03% to 15.67. Rate-sensitive ASX banks CBA.AU and REITs GMG.AU are the local beneficiaries of lower yields.
• Memory chips fell hard: Micron MU.US dropped 8.02%, AMD.US 3.46% and Lam Research LRCX.US 3.08%, though Nvidia NVDA.US held flat at +0.33%. The weakness was memory and equipment specific, not the AI-GPU names, and sets up Taiwan Semiconductor TSM.US as the swing factor tonight.
• AUD back above 0.70: the US dollar index fell 0.42% and AUD/USD rose 0.50% to 0.7009. That trims translation for USD earners CSL.AU, RMD.AU and CPU.AU, whose offshore revenue converts into fewer Australian dollars at the higher spot.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,572.4 (+0.38%)
• Nasdaq: 26,269 (+0.62%)
• Dow: 52,659 (+0.29%)
• VIX: 15.67 (-5.03%)

BlackRock BLK.US rose 6.63% after posting second-quarter earnings of US$13.91 a share on US$7.08 billion of revenue, the standout among asset managers. The five largest US platforms all gained between 2.78% and 4.01% while memory names sold off, so the Nasdaq outran the Dow's 0.29% gain. The Russell 2000 added 0.39%, a sign the bid reached beyond the index heavyweights as yields eased.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,069/oz (+0.42%)
• Brent: US$85.50 (little changed)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: near US$99/t (little changed)
• AUD/USD: 0.7009 (+0.50%)

Gold firmed 0.42% to US$4,069 an ounce as the weaker US dollar and lower yields eased the opportunity cost of holding bullion, a tailwind for ASX gold miners NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU. Copper rose 0.65% to US$6.382 a pound and iron ore held near US$99 a tonne, supportive for the big miners BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU after materials led the local session on Wednesday. Brent sat near US$85.50 and WTI near US$80, a neutral backdrop for energy names WDS.AU and STO.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners NST.AU, EVN.AU and NEM.AU are geared to the US$4,069 gold price and a US dollar index down 0.42%.
• Iron ore majors BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU open with iron ore firm near US$99 a tonne, one session after materials paced the 0.37% ASX gain.
• Technology names WTC.AU, XRO.AU and TNE.AU track a Nasdaq that rose 0.62% on the bid for the largest US platforms.
• USD earners CSL.AU, RMD.AU and CPU.AU face an AUD at 0.7009, up 0.50%, which caps the Australian-dollar value of offshore revenue.
• Semiconductor sentiment hinges on TSM.US, which reports second-quarter results this afternoon after Micron MU.US fell 8.02% overnight.

Economic calendar today

• The domestic calendar is light, with no major ABS release scheduled; the focus is offshore.
• 16:00 AEST: TSM.US second-quarter earnings, a gauge of AI chip demand.
• 22:30 AEST: US retail sales (forecast +0.2% after +0.9%) and initial jobless claims.
• 22:30 AEST: Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index.
• Post US close: Netflix NFLX.US second-quarter results.

What to watch

• Whether ASX technology tracks the Nasdaq's lead from the largest US platforms or the overnight memory-chip weakness ahead of the TSM.US result this afternoon.
• AUD/USD at 0.7009: further US dollar softness would extend the translation headwind for offshore earners CSL.AU and RMD.AU.
• Iron ore holding near US$99 a tonne underpins BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU after Wednesday's materials-led session.

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