ASX 200 set to open flat as a 4.4% iron ore drop offsets Wall Street's tech-led rally

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.03%

S&P/ASX 200 futures point to a 3 point open on Tuesday 4 August 2026, a flat start against a 1.48% S&P 500 rally, because iron ore fell 4.43% to US$93.66 a tonne and the local index holds little of the technology that drove Wall Street. META.US rose 6.02%, MSFT.US 4.93% and GOOGL.US 4.88% as the Nasdaq Composite added 2.13%. Crude settled 5.56% lower at US$79.96 after President Trump called off a planned strike on Iran and opened talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.

Overnight drivers

• Iran strike called off: WTI fell 5.56% to US$79.96 and Brent 4.73% to US$83.57. Trump suspended a planned military strike and said negotiations with Tehran would resume, with Saudi Arabia among the allies pressing for a deal. OPEC+ approved another production increase, completing the restoration of the cuts introduced in 2023. WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU are the local names exposed to it.
• Iron ore 4.43% lower at US$93.66 a tonne: the yuan priced contract fell 2.51% to CNY698. BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU meet that price this morning, and FMG.AU had already dropped 3.84% on Monday.
• US technology leadership: META.US +6.02%, MSFT.US +4.93%, GOOGL.US +4.88%, AMZN.US +4.58% and NVDA.US +2.93%. Information technology is one of the smallest sectors in the ASX 200, which leaves WTC.AU and XRO.AU to carry a 2.13% Nasdaq session locally.
• US 10-year yield 5.9 basis points lower at 4.686%: yields fell even as ISM manufacturing printed 55.6, its highest since May 2022, because the crude drop pulled inflation expectations down alongside it. The Australian 10-year eased 3 basis points to 4.957%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,600.50 (+1.48%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 25,913.90 (+2.13%)
• Dow Jones: 53,178.41 (+1.32%)
• Russell 2000: 2,981.91 (+1.73%)
• VIX: 15.86 (-0.81%)

The Dow closed at a record 53,178.41. The Russell 2000 added 1.73%, so the move was not confined to the largest names. Energy was the exception: CVX.US fell 1.85% and XOM.US 0.24% as crude dropped. AAPL.US lost 1.78%, the only one of the large technology names to finish lower. The July ISM manufacturing survey read 55.6, up 2.3 points on June, with production at 58.5 and new orders at 56.7.

Commodities and FX (AU relevant)

• Gold: US$4,051.90/oz (+0.22%)
• Brent: US$83.57 (-4.73%)
• WTI: US$79.96 (-5.56%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$93.66/t (-4.43%)
• Copper: US$6.51/lb (+1.21%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7000 (-0.36%)

Iron ore at US$93.66 a tonne is 4.72% lower over the past month and 7.06% below its level a year ago, which weighs on the three iron ore majors. Copper went the other way, up 1.21% to US$6.51 a pound on the strong ISM reading, so the diversified miners and the iron ore weighted ones open on different footing. AUD/USD at 0.7000 is 0.36% lower and adds a translation benefit for CSL.AU and other USD earners.

Key themes for ASX open

• BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU open against the 4.43% iron ore fall. BHP.AU closed Monday up 0.68%, RIO.AU down 0.63%, FMG.AU down 3.84%.
• WDS.AU -1.37%, STO.AU -1.91%, BPT.AU at $0.905. Local energy absorbed most of the crude move during Monday's session, before WTI settled at US$79.96.
• GMD.AU +2.10% and EVN.AU +1.69% led the gold names, with CMM.AU +0.31% and NST.AU +0.05% behind them. Gold sits at US$4,051.90 an ounce, futures at US$4,107.
• Banks split four ways: WBC.AU +0.79%, NAB.AU +0.65%, CBA.AU +0.21%, ANZ.AU -0.05%. The US 10-year at 4.686% and the Australian 10-year at 4.957% both eased.
• QAN.AU rose 3.72%, the clearest local beneficiary of a 5.56% crude fall, since jet fuel ranks among the airline's largest costs.
• WTC.AU +1.21% and XRO.AU +1.87% closed higher before the Nasdaq added 2.13%.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: Monthly Household Spending Indicator, June 2026 (ABS)
• 11:30 AEST: Selected Living Cost Indexes, June quarter 2026 (ABS)
• 11:30 AEST: International Trade in Goods, June 2026 (ABS)
• Today: CCP.AU reports FY 2026 results, having guided to net profit of $100 million to $110 million against $94 million in FY 2025

What to watch

• The Selected Living Cost Indexes arrive seven days before the Reserve Bank's 11 August decision, with the cash rate at 4.35% after three increases this year.
• The ASX 200 closed Monday at its session high of 9,019.3, which is 1.97% below the record close of 9,200.9 set on 2 March 2026.
• BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU sit among the index's largest weights, so US$93.66 a tonne iron ore counts for more at the open than a 2.13% Nasdaq session does.

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