ASX 200 Set to Ease From Record Close as Gold Runs to US$4,307

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.1%

Gold jumped 3.75% overnight to US$4,307.80 an ounce, its highest since 18 June, after President Trump said a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz could land within days and cheaper crude pulled inflation expectations lower. SpaceX SPCX.US fell 13.61% to US$108.27 as AI spending overshadowed a second-quarter beat, pulling the Nasdaq down 0.83% while the Dow closed at a record 54,349.12. SPI futures point the ASX 200 8 points (0.1%) lower after Wednesday's record 9,227.8 finish, because the bullion move is offset by an energy sector that fell 2.22% in local trade.

Overnight drivers

• Hormuz diplomacy: Trump said an agreement "could happen. Tomorrow or the next day", with Qatar drafting a US-Iran proposal and Iran weighing European mine clearance in the strait. Brent has fallen from US$90.12 on 31 July to US$79.49, an 11.8% slide across two sessions, and WTI sits at US$75.12.
• Gold at US$4,307.80/oz, up 3.75%: cheaper crude cut inflation expectations and eased the case for a further Federal Reserve increase from the 3.50% to 3.75% range held on 29 July. Bullion was US$4,237.10 when the ASX closed at 16:00 AEST, added 1.7% after the bell and peaked at US$4,321.20 around 04:00 AEST.
• AMD.US dropped 7.04% to US$482.05 despite beating estimates, and NVDA.US rose 3.43% to US$219.22. The Nasdaq closed at 26,363.44, down 0.83%, ending a four-day run.
• US 10-year 4.617%, down 4.6 basis points. The dollar index eased 0.17% to 99.69, the VIX settled 4.18% lower at 15.81 and AUD/USD firmed 0.19% to 0.7060.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,723.55 (-0.17%)
• Nasdaq: 26,363.44 (-0.83%)
• Dow: 54,349.12 (+0.49%)
• VIX: 15.81 (-4.18%)

The Dow set a record close on 5 August 2026 while the Nasdaq snapped a four-day rally. SPCX.US and AMD.US both beat expectations and both fell, 13.61% and 7.04%, which is what separated the two indices. The Russell 2000 dropped 0.59% to 3,019.19.

Commodities and FX

• Gold: US$4,307.80/oz (+3.75%)
• Silver: US$62.33/oz
• Brent: US$79.49
• WTI: US$75.12
• Copper: US$6.75/lb (+2.0%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7060 (+0.19%)

Silver at US$62.33/oz and copper at US$6.75/lb both finished higher, which puts the diversified miners on the same side as the pure gold names. Brent is down 11.8% in two sessions and WTI has fallen 11.3% from US$84.67 on 31 July. ASX energy names wore the first leg of that during Wednesday's session, and the rest arrived after they stopped trading.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: NEM.US rose 6.71% to US$104.29 overnight while the same company's ASX line NEM.AU gained 4.41% to $143.52 during Wednesday's session. NST.AU closed at $21.49, EVN.AU at $12.52 and RRL.AU at $6.70.
• Gold ran Wednesday's leaderboard: CMM.AU +8.74% to $14.19, OBM.AU +8.66% to $1.255, PDI.AU +8.40% to $0.71, GMD.AU +8.24% to $6.44 and BGL.AU +8.08% to $1.405 took five of the ten best ASX 200 places.
• Energy: the sector fell 2.22% on Wednesday. WDS.AU dropped 3.55% to $31.78 and STO.AU 2.19% to $7.59, with Brent now at US$79.49.
• Reporting season: XYZ.AU, AMP.AU, NWS.AU and REA.AU report today. Bell Potter forecasts REA Group revenue of $1,808 million and adjusted NPAT of $626 million, growth of 8% and 11%.
• Banks: CBA.AU fell 1.38% to $178.23, the largest drag on a session that still ended at an all-time high.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: ABS International Trade in Goods, June 2026 reference period

What to watch

• Wednesday's record came with gold names up more than 8% and CBA.AU down 1.38%, so the index gain was concentrated rather than even.
• Bullion at US$4,307.80 now against US$4,237.10 when ASX gold names last traded.
• Energy after a 2.22% sector decline, with Brent at US$79.49 and WTI at US$75.12.
• NEU.AU at $21.64 following a 16.28% move, the largest single gain in the ASX 200 on Wednesday.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.