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ASX 200 eyes flat open after record 9,271.6 close as crude jumps 3.8%

Crude jumped 3.82% and the US 10-year yield rose to 4.67%, reversing the two forces that lifted the ASX 200 to Thursday's record close.

Neutral3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2009,272+0.47%
S&P 5007,710-0.18%
NASDAQ26,348-0.06%
Dow53,885-0.85%
VIX15.15-4.17%
Gold4,243-0.11%
Brent83.32+4.87%
AUD/USD0.7033-0.33%
SPI_F9,2720.00%

ASX 200 eyes flat open after record 9,271.6 close as crude jumps 3.8%

Sentiment: neutral ASX 200 futures: flat

The S&P/ASX 200 closed at a record 9,271.6 on Thursday 6 August 2026, up 0.47%, and both supports behind that four-session run reversed overnight: WTI crude jumped 3.82% to US$78.10 after Iran published a restrictive draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz, and the US 10-year yield rose 5 basis points to 4.67%. DDOG.US fell 19.03% and WDC.US 13.03% in the two largest single-name moves, while MSFT.US rose 2.54% and held the Nasdaq Composite to a 0.06% loss. SPI futures point to a flat ASX open.

Overnight drivers

  • WTI +3.82% to US$78.10 and Brent +4.87% to US$83.32: Iran published a restrictive draft plan for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. XOM.US rose 2.12% and CVX.US 1.51%, and the US energy sector fund XLE.US gained 1.48%.
  • US 10-year yield 4.67%, up 5 basis points, with the 30-year at 5.21%: the crude move fed into the long end. Falling yields helped drive the ASX rally this week, and they rose overnight instead.
  • Dow -0.85% overstates the offshore lead: GS.US at US$1,032.58 and CAT.US at US$856.96 are the index's two most expensive members, so their falls of 2.62% and 1.62% cost roughly 170 and 87 Dow points on the index's approximate 0.163 divisor. Add UNH.US, BA.US and HON.US and five names account for about 405 of the 464 points lost.
  • WDC.US -13.03%, SNDK.US -6.81% and DDOG.US -19.03%: storage and software took the session's steepest falls. MU.US held to -1.31%.
  • VIX 15.15, down 4.17%: volatility fell on the same session the Dow shed 464 points. Selling stayed inside a handful of names.

Overnight Wall Street

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 53,885.10 on 6 August 2026, down 464.02 points or 0.85%, ending a five-session record run.

  • S&P 500: 7,709.96 (-0.18%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,348.35 (-0.06%)
  • Dow Jones: 53,885.10 (-0.85%)
  • Russell 2000: 3,001.55 (-0.58%)
  • VIX: 15.15 (-4.17%)

The S&P 500 lost 13.6 points and the Nasdaq 15.1, against the Dow's 464. The Dow weights by share price, so a US$27.80 fall in GS.US moves it more than percentage-equivalent falls in cheaper members, and MSFT.US adding US$12.40 returned about 76 points.

Capital-markets banks did most of the selling: C.US -2.78%, GS.US -2.62%, MS.US -2.07% and WFC.US -1.77%. The broad financials fund XLF.US held at -0.33% and BAC.US at -0.40%, so the weakness sat in the investment banks rather than across the sector. On the data side, July layoffs fell to a two-year low and jobless claims for the week ending 1 August came in at 199,000, ahead of tonight's US employment report.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

  • WTI crude: US$78.10 (+3.82%)
  • Brent crude: US$83.32 (+4.87%)
  • Gold: US$4,242.84/oz (-0.11%)
  • Silver: US$61.52/oz (-0.81%)
  • Copper: US$6.6973/lb (-0.09%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe: US$95.28/t (+1.46%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7033 (-0.33%)

Iron ore at US$95.28/t, up 1.46%, supports BHP.AU, RIO.AU and FMG.AU, which closed Thursday at +0.45%, -0.02% and +1.43%. Gold slipping 0.11% follows a session in which EVN.AU gained 3.83% to $13.000 and NST.AU 3.26% to $22.190, so local gold miners open without an offshore push behind them. AUD/USD at 0.7033, down 0.33% as the US dollar index rose 0.29% to 99.965, improves the translation for CSL.AU, RMD.AU and JHX.AU.

Key themes for ASX open

  • Energy: WDS.AU closed Thursday at $31.720 (-0.19%) and STO.AU at $7.630 (+0.53%), both before crude's 3.82% overnight move landed.
  • Gold miners: EVN.AU +3.83% and NST.AU +3.26% on Thursday against spot gold at US$4,242.84/oz, down 0.11% overnight.
  • Financials: CBA.AU closed at $179.870 (+0.92%) and MQG.AU at $267.250 (+0.06%) after touching an all-time high of $267.90 during Thursday's session. US investment banks fell 2% to 3% overnight.
  • Technology: WTC.AU -1.53% to $39.300 and XRO.AU +0.41% to $75.450 on Thursday, against DDOG.US -19.03% overnight.
  • Results this morning: JHX.AU closed at $40.820 (+1.52%), NCK.AU at $17.230 (+2.87%) and RMD.AU at $31.480 (+0.29%) ahead of their FY 2026 numbers. Consensus for RMD.AU sits at US$5.65 billion revenue and US$11.12 earnings per share.

Economic calendar today

  • 10:00 AEST: ASX open, with JHX.AU, NCK.AU and RMD.AU results already released
  • 22:30 AEST: US July employment report

What to watch

  • The index enters Friday 3.29% above last Friday's 8,976.8 close, having gained in each of the past four sessions.
  • Gold miners and financials supplied most of the four-session run, and neither had crude at US$78.10 behind it.
  • Money markets price almost no chance of a change at the RBA meeting on 11 August, with the cash rate at 4.35%.

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This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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