ASX 200 set to open 0.35% higher as a US jobs miss flips September Fed hike odds

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.35%

SPI futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open about 33 points or 0.35% higher on Monday 10 August 2026 from Friday's close of 9,263.6, after US July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus of plus 83,000 and reversed the market's September Fed call. Atlassian TEAM.US jumped 35.31% to US$149.07 on its result, helping carry the Nasdaq up 1.30% to 26,690.6 while the S&P 500 set a record close of 7,757.6. That 0.35% futures gap is a quarter of the Nasdaq's move because the US 10-year yield surrendered its entire post-payrolls rally to finish down 1 basis point, leaving financials, roughly 28% of the index, without support two days before the RBA decides.

Overnight drivers

• US July payrolls fell 23,000 against a consensus of plus 83,000, with unemployment at 4.1%. CME FedWatch moved to a 44.1% chance of a 25 basis point September hike from 55% the prior day, and a 55.9% chance of a hold at 3.50% to 3.75%. Equities rose on the reduced hike risk. No September cut is priced.
• The US 10-year yield round-tripped. It fell as far as 4.603% on the payrolls print, then closed at 4.660%, down 1 basis point on the session. Australian 10-year yields went the other way, adding 6.1 basis points to 4.985%. Bank funding costs got no overnight relief.
• Gold closed at US$4,397 an ounce, up 1.30%, its highest close in more than two months. Friday had already delivered CMM.AU +5.77%, EVN.AU +3.08% and NST.AU +2.30% locally.
• AUD/USD sits at 0.7069, up 0.51% from 0.7033 at Friday's ASX close, as the softer jobs print pulled the US dollar index back to 99.62. CSL.AU and other USD earners convert that revenue into fewer Australian dollars.
• Brent rose 1.05% to US$84.43 and WTI 0.97% to US$78.94, while iron ore slipped 0.87% to US$94.45 a tonne. Energy and iron ore open on opposite footings: WDS.AU and STO.AU with crude 1.05% higher, FMG.AU with the ore price down 0.87%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,757.6 (+0.62%)
• Nasdaq: 26,690.6 (+1.30%)
• Dow: 54,036.9 (+0.28%)
• Russell 2000: 3,034.5 (+1.10%)
• VIX: 14.90 (-1.65%)

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,757.6 on 7 August 2026, up 0.62%, with software the strongest single group. Atlassian TEAM.US gained 35.31% and Twilio TWLO.US 24.89%, both on results, and NVDA.US added 2.27%. The Russell 2000 rose 1.10% against the Dow's 0.28%, small caps taking the most from the lower hike odds. VIX finished at 14.90, its lowest close of the week, down from 16.50 on Wednesday.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,397/oz (+1.30%)
• Brent: US$84.43 (+1.05%)
• WTI: US$78.94 (+0.97%)
• Iron ore 62% Qingdao: US$94.45/t (-0.87%)
• Copper: US$6.606/lb (+0.23%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7069 (+0.51%)

Gold at a two-month high follows a 17.10% gain in the All Ordinaries Gold sub-index last week. Iron ore at US$94.45 a tonne offers the majors nothing by comparison. FMG.AU fell 2.33% on Friday against BHP.AU +0.24% and RIO.AU +0.79%, a split that tracks pure iron ore exposure rather than the materials sector as a whole.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: CMM.AU, NST.AU and EVN.AU carry a fourth straight session of gains into a US$4,397 gold price.
• Technology: WTC.AU rose 4.27% and XRO.AU 1.47% on Friday, and the ASX 200 tech sector added 8.4% last week. TEAM.US +35.31% overnight is the closest offshore comparison the local sector has.
• Banks: CBA.AU -1.03%, NAB.AU -1.10%, WBC.AU -1.56% and ANZ.AU -1.00% all fell Friday while AU 10-year yields rose 6.1 basis points. Financials are about 28% of the index, which is why a 1.30% Nasdaq session converts to a 0.35% futures gap.
• Energy: STO.AU +0.39% and WDS.AU +0.50% on Friday, with Brent 1.05% higher overnight.
• Health care: RMD.AU fell 8.29% on Friday on its FY26 result, and CSL.AU eased 0.13% into an AUD at 0.7069.

Economic calendar today

• 09:50 AEST: Japan BoJ Summary of Opinions
• 09:50 AEST: Japan Current Account
• Today: CAR.AU FY26 results. Bell Potter forecasts sales of $1,273 million, underlying EBITDA of $710 million and adjusted net profit of $406 million, 7.4% above the prior year. CAR.AU closed Friday at $27.02, down 1.06%.

What to watch

• The 0.35% futures gap against a 1.30% Nasdaq session shows how little of an offshore tech rally reaches an index that is 28% financials.
• Tuesday 14:30 AEST brings the RBA decision, with the cash rate at 4.35% after three 25 basis point increases earlier in the year. Pricing is close to a certain hold, so the statement language and the 15:30 press conference carry the information.
• CBA.AU reports FY26 on Wednesday against consensus net profit near $10,875 million, the largest single earnings figure in the August calendar. TLS.AU, SUN.AU and AGL.AU are also scheduled this week.
• US CPI lands Wednesday 22:30 AEST with consensus at 3.4% headline and 2.5% core. That print, not Friday's payrolls, decides the September FOMC question.

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