ASX 200 Set to Open 35 Points Lower on 14 August 2026 as Oil and Gold Fall

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.4%

SPI futures point the S&P/ASX 200 to open 35 points or 0.4% lower on Friday 14 August 2026, near 9,153, after Brent fell 2.36% to US$86.88 a barrel and spot gold 1.11% to US$4,359.80 an ounce overnight. NFLX.US gained 5.43% and MU.US 4.23% to lift the Nasdaq 0.81%, carrying the S&P 500 to a record close of 7,798.99 after July producer prices came in flat against a 0.2% consensus rise. US 10-year yields eased 4 basis points to 4.641%, which supports Australian property trusts and tech at the open.

Overnight drivers

• US July PPI flat versus 0.2% expected: the S&P 500 added 0.65% to 7,798.99, its first close above 7,800, and the 10-year yield eased to 4.641%. Softer producer prices firmed positioning for a Federal Reserve hold in September. GMG.AU, XRO.AU and WTC.AU are the local names most exposed to that yield move.
• Brent -2.36% to US$86.88, WTI -2.69% to US$81.03 on weaker demand expectations. WDS.AU last traded at $32.55 and STO.AU at $8.04, both set against a Brent price US$2.10 lower than at Thursday's local close.
• Spot gold -1.11% to US$4,359.80/oz on profit-taking after a month that added 7.54%. EVN.AU fell 1.16% and GMD.AU 1.73% on Thursday, ahead of the overnight fall. NST.AU and NEM.AU finished near flat.
• Iron ore steady at US$95.05/t, off 0.04%, while the Dalian yuan contract fell 2.15% to CNY705. BHP.AU closed Thursday unchanged at $63.45 and FMG.AU down 0.45%. Neither takes a new price signal into the open.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,798.99 (+0.65%)
• Nasdaq: 26,803.03 (+0.81%)
• Dow: 53,839.99 (+0.13%)
• VIX: 14.63 (+0.55%)

July producer prices were flat when economists expected a 0.2% rise, and that print pushed the S&P 500 through 7,800 for the first time. The Dow added 0.13% and the Russell 2000 0.24% against the Nasdaq's 0.81%, so the gain sat with the largest technology names. NFLX.US +5.43%, MU.US +4.23% and META.US +2.78% supplied most of that Nasdaq move. AMAT.US fell 2.48% after its quarterly result and AMZN.US 0.80%, while AAPL.US, MSFT.US and GOOGL.US each added between 0.82% and 1.00%. The VIX closed at 14.63.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,359.80/oz (-1.11%)
• Brent: US$86.88 (-2.36%)
• WTI: US$81.03 (-2.69%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$95.05/t (-0.04%)
• Copper: US$6.5758/lb (-0.32%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7064 (flat)

Aluminium fell 1.97% to US$3,241.50 a tonne in the same week that RIO.AU secured a A$2.5 billion federal and NSW power package for the Tomago smelter, which keeps up to 590,000 tonnes of annual capacity running past 2028 and shifts it to renewable supply from 2033. RIO.AU fell 3.57% to $173.03 on Thursday while trading ex-dividend. The Australian dollar sat at 0.7064 and the US dollar index at 99.95, down 0.06%, leaving exporters with the same currency level they closed against.

Key themes for ASX open

• Energy: WDS.AU and STO.AU open against Brent at US$86.88, down 2.36%, and WTI at US$81.03, down 2.69%.
• Gold miners: EVN.AU, NST.AU, NEM.AU and GMD.AU open against spot gold 1.11% lower, following a month in which the metal added 7.54%.
• Banks: CBA.AU fell 2.15% to $169.00 on Thursday, a second session of falls after its FY26 result, and the index has now closed lower three days running. ANZ.AU rose 4.53% and NAB.AU 1.17% on Thursday after their own updates.
• QBE.AU releases FY26 half-year results at 09:30 AEST. Bell Potter forecasts gross written premium of US$13,707 million and net profit after tax of US$838 million, against company guidance for a combined operating ratio near 92.5%.
• Property and tech: GMG.AU, XRO.AU and WTC.AU open against a US 10-year yield 4 basis points lower at 4.641%.

Economic calendar today

• 09:30 AEST: RBA Governor Michele Bullock speech
• 09:30 AEST: QBE.AU FY26 half-year results
• 11:30 AEST: ABS Home Loans Q2 (previous -4.3%) and Investment Lending for Homes Q2 (previous -3.0%)
• 22:30 AEST: US July retail sales (consensus +0.3% month on month, previous +0.2%)
• 00:00 AEST Saturday: University of Michigan consumer sentiment, preliminary August (consensus 54.1, previous 55.2)

What to watch

• Bullock speaks at 09:30 AEST, 30 minutes before the open and three days after the RBA held the cash rate at 4.35%.
• Energy, gold and the banks account for the gap between a record S&P 500 close and a 0.4% lower SPI open.
• ABS Home Loans lands at 11:30 AEST against a previous quarter of -4.3%, with investment lending forecast at -6.4%.
• The ASX 200 has closed lower for three consecutive sessions and finished Thursday at 9,188.5, about 44 points above its intraday low of 9,144.6.

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