ASX 200 set to open 0.2% lower as the US 30-year yield holds a two-decade high

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: -0.2%

The S&P/ASX 200 is set to open 18 points or 0.2% lower on Wednesday 19 August 2026, after a 4.98% drop in the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index pulled the Nasdaq down 1.33% to 26,289.71. Micron MU.US fell 7.02% to US$940.76, the biggest drop among the large chip names, with AMD.US down 4.27% and Broadcom AVGO.US down 3.17%. The US 30-year Treasury yield sits at 5.285% after touching 5.326% intraday, its highest since 2007, and that level rather than the day's move is what prices long-duration equities: the 30-year eased 2.4 basis points into the close.

Overnight drivers

• US 30-year Treasury yield 5.285%: the intraday 5.326% print is the highest since 2007, and the 10-year sits at 4.706%. Both eased on the day (30-year -2.4bp, 10-year -1.8bp), so the pressure on ASX long-duration names comes from where yields are, not where they moved. WTC.AU, XRO.AU, the REITs and the gold miners all sit on the wrong side of it.
• Semiconductors -4.98%: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index closed at 11,992.46, near its session low of 11,828.46. MU.US -7.02%, AMD.US -4.27%, AVGO.US -3.17%, NVDA.US -2.34%. WTC.AU closed up 2.55% at $43.35 on Tuesday and opens against that.
• Gold -1.83%, silver -3.86%, copper -2.51%: spot gold closed at US$4,335.35/oz and silver at US$63.23 with long yields near two-decade highs. Platinum fell 4.08% and palladium 3.85%, so the selling was not confined to bullion. EVN.AU reports today, and NST.AU already closed 3.10% lower on Tuesday.
• Brent US$91.35, third straight gain: +0.36% after Washington ruled out extending its Iran ceasefire and Tehran signalled a more offensive stance. WTI rose 0.97% to US$85.32. STO.AU and WHC.AU both report FY26 today; BPT.AU closed +3.43% on Tuesday.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,691.76 (-0.69%)
• Nasdaq: 26,289.71 (-1.33%)
• Dow: 53,343.40 (-0.22%)
• VIX: 15.84 (+4.28%)

The Nasdaq fell 1.11 percentage points further than the Dow, and that spread is what the ASX has to price this morning. The Dow lost 0.22% and Home Depot reported improved sales; the selling concentrated in duration and semiconductors. Small caps went with the Nasdaq: the Russell 2000 fell 1.30% to 3,017.89. VIX at 15.84 rose 4.28% and still sits below 16, which is why the SPI points to 0.2% and not a gap open.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (spot): US$4,335.35/oz (-1.83%)
• Silver (spot): US$63.23/oz (-3.86%)
• Brent: US$91.28 (+0.45%)
• WTI: US$85.32 (+0.97%)
• Copper: US$6.4385/lb (-2.51%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe (SGX Sep 26): US$96.20/t (+0.94%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7087 (-0.28%)

Energy is the one commodity leg pointing higher. Copper fell 2.51%, which carries more weight than usual after BHP.AU reported on Tuesday that copper produced more than US$18 billion of underlying EBITDA in FY26, 54% of the group total, on a realised price up 35% to US$5.74/lb. Freeport-McMoRan FCX.US fell 3.01% overnight on the same move. AUD/USD at 0.7087 fell 0.28% against a US dollar index that closed flat at 99.644.

Key themes for ASX open

• Gold miners: EVN.AU reports FY26 with spot bullion down 1.83% and silver down 3.86% overnight, and the 30-year yield at a two-decade high. NST.AU fell 3.10% on Tuesday, GMD.AU 2.27% and RMS.AU 1.91%.
• Energy: STO.AU and WHC.AU report with Brent at US$91.28 and three consecutive up sessions behind it.
• Local technology: WTC.AU rose 2.55% and XRO.AU 0.78% on Tuesday, before the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 4.98% overnight.
• Healthcare: CSL.AU closed at $157.82 on Tuesday, up 17.25% on FY26 results that paired a US$2.6 billion statutory loss with FY27 guidance near 5% underlying profit growth. The ASX 200 still fell 3.2 points that session.
• Domestic rates: the Australian 10-year yield closed at 5.05%, up 3 basis points, with the 30-year at 5.62%. Wage data lands before the RBA speaks.

Economic calendar today

• 11:30 AEST: Q2 Wage Price Index, consensus +0.8% for the quarter and 3.2% year on year against 3.3% prior
• 12:45 AEST: RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks on the domestic and global outlook and policy strategy
• 16:00 AEST: UK July CPI
• FY26 results: EVN.AU, ILU.AU, TLC.AU, STO.AU, WHC.AU

What to watch

• Whether ASX technology follows the 4.98% semiconductor fall or the 0.22% Dow decline. Tuesday's session absorbed a 17.25% CSL.AU move and still closed 3.2 points lower.
• The Wage Price Index at 11:30 AEST, then Hauser at 12:45 AEST, one day before Thursday's July Labour Force print. The RBA held the cash rate at 4.35% in August after three increases this year, and markets price roughly a 70% chance of a move to 4.60% by early 2027.
• The iron ore majors, already split going in: BHP.AU closed 2.65% higher on Tuesday against RIO.AU down 0.55% and FMG.AU down 0.39%, with SGX iron ore at US$96.20/t and copper 2.51% lower.

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