ASX 200 set to open 13 points higher as Nvidia's seventh straight fall drags the Nasdaq

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.15%

Wall Street split on Monday 24 August 2026, with the Dow Jones up 0.26% to 53,417.16 while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.76% to 25,980.19, on a chipmaker selloff ahead of Nvidia's quarterly result on Wednesday. NVDA.US lost 2.91% to US$208.48, a seventh consecutive decline and its longest losing run since September 2022. SPI futures at 9,054.5 imply a 13-point (0.15%) higher ASX 200 open from Monday's close of 9,103.1.

Overnight drivers

• Nvidia pre-earnings selling: NVDA.US -2.91% to US$208.48, down roughly 7% across the seven-session slide, with second-quarter numbers due after Wednesday's US close. MU.US -5.83%, SMCI.US -5.56%, AMD.US -3.49%, MRVL.US -3.27% and AVGO.US -2.63% all fell with it. WTC.AU and XRO.AU gained 2.74% and 2.04% on Monday and open against a weaker Nasdaq.
• Iran sanctions rolled out, oil fell anyway: Brent -2.46% to US$92.07 and WTI -2.29% to US$85.07 after Washington launched its global sanctions campaign against Iran while holding back the toughest export measures. WDS.AU reports full-year results today; STO.AU fell 1.78% and BPT.AU 1.10% on Monday.
• US 10-year yield -3.4bp to 4.704%: Gold added about 0.7% to US$4,715/oz, a three-month high. Producers GMD.AU +3.00%, EVN.AU +2.48% and NST.AU +1.75% had already run on Monday.
• Dow value bid: UNH.US +2.22%, META.US +1.66%, JPM.US +1.37% and AMZN.US +1.33% held the Dow positive while the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 both fell 0.76%.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,652.86 (-0.28%)
• Nasdaq: 25,980.19 (-0.76%)
• Dow: 53,417.16 (+0.26%)
• VIX: 15.85 (+4.76%)

The S&P 500 sits further from the record it set earlier in August, with 1.02 percentage points between the Dow's gain and the Nasdaq's fall. Semiconductors accounted for most of that: MU.US -5.83%, INTC.US -3.12%, TSM.US -2.11% and TXN.US -2.05%. Health care, banks and staples took the other side, led by UNH.US +2.22%, JNJ.US +1.04% and KO.US +0.98%. VIX closed at 15.85, up 4.76% and its highest in a week, with July PCE due Wednesday, Nvidia's numbers the same evening and Jackson Hole on Friday.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,715/oz (+0.7%)
• Brent: US$92.07 (-2.46%)
• WTI: US$85.07 (-2.29%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe CFR China: US$95.34/t
• Copper: US$6.6085/lb (+0.44%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7153 (-0.31%)

Brent at US$92.07, down 2.46%, hits WDS.AU on the morning it prints full-year numbers, with STO.AU and BPT.AU alongside. Gold at a three-month high runs the other way for NST.AU, EVN.AU, GMD.AU and CMM.AU. Copper added 0.44% to US$6.6085/lb and held Monday's supply-disruption bid, the move that lifted BHP.AU 3.01% to a record close. Iron ore at US$95.34/t is up 0.41% over the week and down 3.06% over the month, leaving RIO.AU and FMG.AU without fresh support from the bulk.

Key themes for ASX open

• Reporting day: COL.AU, WDS.AU and MND.AU release results today, the densest single day of the week for ASX 200 names.
• Gold miners against energy: gold at US$4,715/oz and Brent at US$92.07 put NST.AU, EVN.AU and CMM.AU on one side and WDS.AU, STO.AU and BPT.AU on the other.
• Materials at a record: BHP.AU +3.01%, MIN.AU +4.19% and FMG.AU +1.01% on Monday took the sector to its first record since 17 June, and copper has not given the gain back.
• Lithium momentum: PLS.AU +7.89% to $5.47 and IGO.AU +4.90% on Monday, with Pilbara reinstating its dividend. MIN.AU +4.19% to $69.07 is up 93.53% over twelve months.
• Banks still lagging: CBA.AU -0.70%, ANZ.AU -0.73% and NAB.AU -0.42% on Monday, a tenth lower close in twelve sessions for the financials index.

Economic calendar today

• Before the open: COL.AU, WDS.AU and MND.AU full-year results
• 10:00 AEST: ASX cash open
• No scheduled ABS release for Tuesday 25 August

What to watch

• SPI futures at 9,054.5 sit 48.6 points below Monday's cash close of 9,103.1, which is the usual dividend-season discount rather than a directional signal.
• Breadth on Monday finished at 123 advancers to 117 decliners, so the 0.49% gain came from index weight rather than participation.
• ES=F and NQ=F both sit within 0.1% of flat at 08:30 AEST.

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