ASX 200 falls 0.95% to 9,005.9 as BHP's ex-dividend week and a 15-year high in bond yields outweigh a bank rally

ASX 200 week close: 9,005.9 (-0.95%) S&P 500 Friday close: 7,718.60 (-0.38%) Sentiment: bearish

The week on the ASX

The S&P/ASX 200 closed the week to 4 September 2026 at 9,005.9, down 86.4 points or 0.95%, as Materials fell 4.64% on BHP.AU's ex-dividend reset and a Monday gold sell-off while the Australian 10-year yield set a 15-year high of 5.223% after June quarter GDP beat forecasts. Regis Healthcare REG.AU fell 25.57% to $4.54, the largest weekly fall among stocks with a market value above $500m, after the government lifted the aged care funding rate 2.55% against award wage growth of 4.75%. Money markets ended the week pricing about a 66% chance of a fourth RBA increase this year at the 29 September meeting, and NAB, Deutsche Bank and UBS all published forecasts for a move to 4.60%.

BHP.AU lost 7.50% to $62.25 over the five sessions, roughly 60 basis points of the index fall at about 8% of the benchmark. That figure includes the A$1.38 final dividend the shares went ex on Thursday, which the price index does not add back. The index fell on four of the five days: 9,076.0 on Monday, 9,066.7 on Tuesday and 8,978.4 on Wednesday, after US strikes on Iranian targets lifted Brent 5.38% overnight and gold fell 2.57%. Thursday recovered 41.7 points to 9,020.1 as the 10-year eased 4 basis points and all four major banks rose, then BHP.AU's 2.40% Friday fall took the index to 9,005.9 against 177 advancers and 92 decliners.

Ex-dividend resets ran through the whole week: WES.AU ($1.20), WOW.AU (52c) and FMG.AU (46c) on Tuesday, BHP.AU, WDS.AU, COL.AU, RHC.AU, AMC.AU and NHF.AU on Thursday for about 17 basis points, and ALD.AU ($1.85) and VEA.AU (7.73c) on Friday. Financials rose 1.97%, worth roughly 60 basis points the other way, as ANZ.AU gained 3.32%, WBC.AU 3.13%, NAB.AU 2.51% and CBA.AU 2.02% on the same rate repricing that took Information Technology down 5.21%.

Sector scorecard (5-day)

• Best: Financials (XFJ) +1.97%, with all four majors up between 2.02% and 3.32%
• Worst: Information Technology (XIJ) -5.21%, with XRO.AU -7.32%, NXT.AU -7.28% and WTC.AU -7.19%
• Dispersion (best minus worst): 7.18 points
• Materials (XMJ) -4.64% and Resources (XJR) -4.32%: BHP.AU -7.50%, FMG.AU -4.70%, MIN.AU -4.61%, PLS.AU -5.04%, RIO.AU -1.20%
• All Ordinaries Gold (XGD) -2.90% after a 4.33% Monday fall: NST.AU -6.50%, EVN.AU -3.57%, NEM.AU -2.46%
• Consumer Discretionary (XDJ) -1.79% with WES.AU -2.58% after its $1.20 ex-dividend; Industrials (XNJ) -1.20%
• Consumer Staples (XSJ) +0.88%, Communication Services (XTJ) +0.77% on TLS.AU +4.12%, Health Care (XHJ) +0.43% on COH.AU +4.88%
• Energy (XEJ) -0.74% against Brent +9.28%, because ALD.AU and VEA.AU went ex-dividend on Friday and WDS.AU fell 1.36%

Top movers, week ending 4 September

Nine Entertainment NEC.AU fell 8.50% to $0.915 on Friday after Birketu lifted its voting power to 25.94%. Smartgroup SIQ.AU rose 8.90% and GrainCorp GNC.AU 9.31%, and after Friday's close S&P Dow Jones Indices added SIQ.AU, ELS.AU, SRL.AU, SSM.AU and WBT.AU to the S&P/ASX 200 and removed GNC.AU, EVT.AU, GQG.AU, PNR.AU and TUA.AU, effective 21 September. MIN.AU and NXT.AU replace COH.AU and WTC.AU in the S&P/ASX 50 on the same date.

Friday US session

• S&P 500: 7,718.60 (-0.38%)
• Nasdaq: 26,506.99 (-0.29%)
• Dow: 53,414.25 (-0.51%)
• VIX: 14.53

August payrolls rose 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, the unemployment rate held at 4.1% and average hourly earnings grew 3.1% year on year. Fed funds futures moved to about a 60% probability of a 25 basis point increase at the 15 to 16 September FOMC meeting, from 48.4% after Governor Waller said on Thursday that he is inclined to hold. The US 10-year closed at 4.784%, up 2.2 basis points, after touching 4.818% on Tuesday, its highest since November 2023. TSLA.US fell 5.92% after its Cybercab service launched in Austin, AAPL.US lost 2.51% and MU.US gained 6.10% on a plan to double high-bandwidth memory output in 2027. Across the week the S&P 500 added 0.09%, the Nasdaq 0.40% and the Dow lost 0.27%, and the VIX rose from 14.43 to 14.53.

Brent finished at US$96.28 a barrel, up 9.28% on the week and 0.80% on Friday, after US strikes on Iranian targets in and around the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday and Wednesday; WTI rose 9.69% to US$91.48. Gold closed at US$4,477.20 an ounce, down 1.38% on Friday and 1.16% over the week after a 2.57% Tuesday fall and a 1.97% Thursday recovery. Copper closed at US$6.668/lb and iron ore stayed under US$100 all week, at about US$99.57 a tonne on Friday. AUD/USD ended at 0.7205, up 0.57% on the week, after Thursday's 0.7203 close was its highest in 100 sessions, which reduces the Australian dollar value of USD revenue at CSL.AU and RMD.AU; RMD.AU fell 3.24% on the week while CSL.AU rose 1.27%.

Macro themes that played out

June quarter GDP rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast and 2.1% year on year, published on Wednesday 2 September one week after July trimmed-mean inflation printed at 3.6%. The cash rate sits at 4.35% after three increases in 2026, and the two prints together moved market pricing for the 29 September meeting to about 16 basis points, or a 66% chance of a 25 basis point rise. The Australian 10-year yield reached 5.223% on Wednesday, its highest since July 2011, and closed Thursday at 5.16%. Banks rose on the wider margin outlook while Information Technology (-5.21%) and Consumer Discretionary (-1.79%) fell against the higher yields; A-REITs finished flat at -0.03%.

Fed pricing moved three times in five sessions. Chair Warsh's 28 August Jackson Hole speech lifted the US 2-year yield 14 basis points on Monday and took the ASX gold sub-index down 4.33% in one session. Governor Waller's Thursday comment that he is inclined to hold cut CME September hike odds to 48.4% and lifted the S&P 500 1.06%. Friday's 162,000 payrolls print then pushed the odds back to about 60%.

China's official manufacturing PMI for August printed 49.8 on Monday against a 49.7 forecast and 49.2 in July, and the private RatingDog survey printed 51.5 on Tuesday against 50.9 expected, its longest run of expansion in five years. Iron ore stayed under US$100 a tonne all week, from US$97.72 at Wednesday's close to about US$99.57 on Friday, while SGX premium coking coal futures rose 4.4% to US$282 a tonne on Tuesday, more than 30% above their level four weeks earlier, and SMR.AU rose 13.91% across the week.

Week ahead: Mon 7 to Fri 11 September (AEST)

• Mon 7 Sep: US equity and bond markets closed for Labor Day, so Tuesday's ASX open has no Wall Street lead. MIN.AU (83c), SIQ.AU (21.5c) and REG.AU (9.4c) trade ex-dividend.
• Tue 8 Sep: 10:30 Westpac consumer sentiment (September); 11:30 NAB business survey (August); 13:00 China August trade data; 13:20 RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter at the AFR Property Summit; 19:30 Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser on ABC 7.30. NWL.AU (21c), IGO.AU (5c) and EVT.AU (23c) trade ex-dividend.
• Wed 9 Sep: 11:30 China August CPI and PPI. MMS.AU (70c), PPT.AU (63c), SFR.AU (35c), SGH.AU (32c), RRL.AU (20c) and BRG.AU (19c) trade ex-dividend.
• Thu 10 Sep: 22:15 ECB rate decision; 22:30 US August PPI. CAR.AU (43.5c) and WTC.AU (12.3c) trade ex-dividend.
• Fri 11 Sep: 22:30 US August CPI, the last inflation print before the 15 to 16 September FOMC meeting.
• Not this week: the August labour force release is scheduled for 24 September, the RBA decision for 29 September at 14:30, and the S&P/ASX index changes take effect on 21 September.

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