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ASX 200 opens Monday carrying an unpriced US jobs surprise, with Wall Street shut

US August payrolls beat by 109,000, Fed hike odds hit 60%, and Australian shares closed before any of it printed.

Mixed4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2009,006-0.16%
S&P 5007,719-0.38%
NASDAQ26,507-0.29%
Dow53,414-0.51%
VIX14.53+1.47%
Gold4,430-1.38%

ASX 200 opens Monday carrying an unpriced US jobs surprise, with Wall Street shut

Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 last close: 9,005.9 (-0.16%, Friday 4 September)

The S&P 500 fell 0.38% to 7,718.60 on Friday after US August payrolls printed 162,000 against a 53,000 consensus, moving CME FedWatch odds of a 16 September Fed hike to 60% from 49% the day before. Tesla TSLA.US lost 5.92% to US$354.08 after its Cybercab launch left pricing and production timing unanswered and the NHTSA opened a query into how the vehicle was self certified. Australian shares closed six and a half hours before that payrolls print, so Monday is the first local session to price it. It runs without a US cash market behind it: the NYSE, Nasdaq and the Treasury market observe Labor Day.

Overnight drivers

  • US August payrolls, 162,000 against 53,000 expected: the unemployment rate held at 4.1% and the prior two months were revised up by 55,000 in total, July from a 23,000 loss to a 21,000 gain and June from 20,000 to 31,000. September Fed hike pricing moved to 60% from 49%.
  • US 10 year yield 4.784%, up 2.2 basis points: a small move for the size of the payrolls surprise, and Friday's equity fall stayed shallow with it. Higher US yields feed AU bank funding costs, Goodman GMG.AU as a REIT, and long duration software WTC.AU and XRO.AU.
  • Gold US$4,429.80/oz, down 1.38%: the largest overnight move against an ASX sector. Gold miners ETF GDX.US fell 2.20% and the Philadelphia gold and silver index dropped 1.66%. AU gold names all closed before the print: NST.AU unchanged at $23.17, EVN.AU +0.67%, NEM.AU +1.93%, GMD.AU -1.44%.
  • US index dispersion: Dow -0.51% to 53,414.25, Nasdaq Composite -0.29% to 26,506.99, Russell 2000 +0.25% to 2,975.65. Small caps rose while the largest US stocks fell. Friday's selling sat in a handful of names.

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,718.60 (-0.38%)
  • Nasdaq Composite: 26,506.99 (-0.29%)
  • Dow: 53,414.25 (-0.51%)
  • Russell 2000: 2,975.65 (+0.25%)
  • VIX: 14.53 (+1.47%)

AAPL.US fell 2.51% to US$319.97 and MSFT.US 2.04% to US$499.70, while NVDA.US added 0.84% and META.US 1.00%. Sector ETFs split along the same line: technology XLK.US +0.70%, financials XLF.US -0.79%, energy XLE.US -0.87%, real estate XLRE.US -0.72%. The VIX closed at 14.53, up from 14.32, and still 1.81 points below its 1 September level of 16.34. Friday repriced the Fed path without repricing risk.

Commodities and FX

  • Gold: US$4,429.80/oz (-1.38%)
  • Brent: US$96.28 (+0.80%)
  • WTI: US$91.48 (+0.20%)
  • Copper: US$6.597/lb (+0.30%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.7208, up from 0.7147 at the start of last week
  • US dollar index: 99.16 (+0.16%)

Crude firmed while gold fell, so AU energy and AU gold open Monday on opposite inputs. Woodside WDS.AU and Santos STO.AU lost 1.21% and 0.85% on Friday on ex dividend dates rather than on the oil price. BHP's US listing fell 0.34% overnight against a 2.40% fall in BHP.AU on the local Friday session, and RIO's US listing added 0.42%.

Key themes for ASX open

  • NST.AU, EVN.AU, GMD.AU, RRL.AU, PRU.AU and WAF.AU set their Friday closes before bullion lost 1.38% and GDX.US fell 2.20%. That is the widest gap between a local sector and its overnight input.
  • CBA.AU, NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU finished Friday within 0.2% of flat, and the local market already prices 16 basis points, or about a 66% chance, of a 25 basis point RBA hike at the 29 September meeting.
  • BHP.AU -2.40% to $62.25, RIO.AU -0.68% and FMG.AU +1.59% split the iron ore majors on Friday. Copper at US$6.597/lb gives S32.AU a firmer input than the local materials sector move suggested.
  • Cotality's national home value index fell 0.9% in August, a fifth straight monthly decline that leaves it 3.6% below the March 2026 peak at a median dwelling value of $912,885.
  • Life360 360.AU +4.11% and Megaport MP1.AU +4.11% led Friday's local technology gains, alongside WiseTech WTC.AU +2.53%, while Xero XRO.AU fell 1.66%.

Economic calendar today

  • No scheduled Australian data release.
  • US markets closed for Labor Day: the NYSE, Nasdaq and the US Treasury market are shut and reopen Tuesday 8 September.

What to watch

  • The ASX 200 ended last week at 9,005.9, down 0.95% from 9,092.30 the previous Friday and 2.65% below its 11 August close of 9,250.60.
  • Friday's local session gave back 72.7 points from a 9,070.2 high to close at 9,005.9. That fade finished before the payrolls print landed.
  • Tuesday 8 September: Westpac consumer confidence at 10:30am AEST, NAB business confidence at 11:30am AEST, RBA speeches from Hunter at 1:20pm and Hauser at 7:30pm.
  • Wednesday 9 September: China August inflation and producer prices at 11:30am AEST, August trade balance at 1:00pm AEST.
  • US August CPI lands on 11 September, three trading days before the 15 to 16 September FOMC decision.

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Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →