ASX 200 falls 0.76% to 8,665.0, its lowest close since June, as the US 10-year yield reaches 5.18%
ASX 200 week close: 8,665.0 (-0.76%) S&P 500 Friday close: 7,743.41 (+0.51%) Sentiment: bearish
The S&P/ASX 200 closed at 8,665.0 on 25 September 2026, down 66.2 points or 0.76% for the week and its lowest close since 12 June, after the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 18.6 basis points to 5.18%, its highest since 2007, and the Trump-Xi summit extended the US-China trade truce by only two months, to 10 January, with no tariff cuts. TUA.AU lost 21.24% to $1.78 after Wednesday's FY26 result left a regulatory review unresolved. Money markets price about a 90% chance of a 25 basis point RBA hike to 4.60% on Tuesday 29 September.
The week on the ASX
The S&P/ASX 200 recorded its fourth consecutive weekly decline and is 4.53% below its 31 August close of 9,076.0. Monday finished 0.7 points higher at 8,731.9 as the big four banks offset PPT.AU -15.10% (board rejected EQT's $22.50 a share proposal) and TLX.AU -11.71% (US$1.65 billion upfront for ITM Isotope Technologies). Tuesday added 0.30% to 8,757.8 as Information Technology rose 2.67% behind a 2.26% Nasdaq gain, and Wednesday's 8,765.3 close (+0.09%) was the week's high, with gold miners cancelling out bank falls while the flash composite PMI fell to 50.8 from 52.7.
Thursday's 63.3 point fall (-0.72%) to 8,702.0 followed a weak US 5-year Treasury auction that pushed the 10-year yield through 5.10%; banks, miners and A-REITs led the decline. Friday's 37.0 point fall (-0.43%) to 8,665.0 came in a session thinned by the Melbourne public holiday, after the Hang Seng fell 1.3% and Chinese lithium carbonate futures dropped 4.8% to 124,420 yuan a tonne. The All Ordinaries fell 0.86% to 8,845.6 and the S&P/ASX 200 VIX fell 3.49% to 11.527.
Sector scorecard (5-day)
- Best: Consumer Staples +0.78%; ING.AU +11.29%, WOW.AU +0.63%, COL.AU +0.30%
- Worst: Utilities -5.23%; ORG.AU -7.03%, AGL.AU -5.21%, APA.AU -2.74%
- Communication Services -2.91%: NEC.AU -14.38%, CAR.AU -6.67%, TLS.AU -1.65%
- Energy -1.55%: WHC.AU -7.06% as December Brent lost 1.86% to US$97.44
- Information Technology -1.01%: XRO.AU -8.63%, WTC.AU -2.28%
- Financials -0.63%: PPT.AU -14.23%, NWL.AU -9.76%, HUB.AU -8.16% against ANZ.AU +0.42% and NAB.AU +0.18%
- Materials -0.84%: PLS.AU -7.91%, LTR.AU -7.84%, RIO.AU -1.58%
- Health Care +0.09%: COH.AU +6.27% and CSL.AU +0.77% against TLX.AU -10.92%
- Dispersion (best minus worst): 6.01 points
Top movers, week ending 25 September
| Ticker | Week | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| SRL.AU | +15.30% | No announcement in its first full week as an ASX 200 constituent; +12.71% on Tuesday alone |
| BNZ.AU | +14.89% | Joined the ASX 300 at Monday's open; nothing lodged since the 14 September accounts |
| A1M.AU | +12.50% | $120 million Mt Cuthbert copper acquisition and $70 million placement announced 22 September |
| ING.AU | +11.29% | PSP Investments disclosed a 5% stake on 24 September after takeover speculation |
| WBT.AU | +10.18% | First week in the ASX 200; rose with Tuesday's 2.67% technology sector gain |
| TUA.AU | -21.24% | Fell 23.39% Wednesday on FY26 results; profit up 328% to S$29.6 million, regulatory review unresolved |
| NEC.AU | -14.38% | Broadcast head Amanda Laing and AFR editor James Chessell left on 24 September; 12-month low |
| PPT.AU | -14.23% | Board rejected EQT's $22.50 a share best-and-final proposal on Monday |
| CYL.AU | -13.13% | Fell 14.37% Tuesday with no announcement, one session after a 370% Cinnamon resource upgrade |
| FRS.AU | -12.86% | Down 4.69% Friday, two sessions after its 23 September British Hill resource update |
VUL.AU fell 11.94% and PLS.AU 7.91% as Chinese lithium carbonate futures ended the week 40% below May's 209,880 yuan high. NWL.AU lost 9.76% after a First Guardian class action named two of its subsidiaries on Friday, and HUB.AU fell 8.16% with it. SKS.AU added 10.55% and CHI.AU 10.27% on thinner volume.
Friday US session
- S&P 500: 7,743.41 (+0.51%)
- Nasdaq Composite: 27,068.72 (+0.48%)
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: 51,828.62 (+0.93%)
- VIX: 14.87 (-5.11%)
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 478.64 points on Friday 25 September and all three indices finished the week higher: the Nasdaq Composite +2.06%, the S&P 500 +1.21% and the Dow +0.28%, the Dow's first weekly gain in four. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.18%, up from 5.00% the prior Friday and its highest since 2007, and the 2-year reached 4.87% on Thursday. The University of Michigan's final September consumer sentiment reading fell to 48.1 from 51.7, a four-month low, with one-year inflation expectations at 4.6%.
November WTI crude fell 2.33% on Friday to US$92.41 and 3.82% for the week. Brent's expiring November contract settled at US$104.32 (+0.43% for the week) while December Brent ended at US$97.44, down 1.86%. December gold fell 2.36% over the week to US$4,320.5 an ounce after a 0.52% Friday gain, and AUD/USD ended at 0.7026, down 1.35% from 0.7122, which lifts the AUD value of USD revenue for CSL.AU and RMD.AU.
Macro themes that played out
The US 10-year Treasury yield rose on four of five sessions to 5.18% after the S&P Global flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 from 56.0, the highest reading since July 2021, with input costs rising at the fastest rate in four years, and a 5-year note auction on Wednesday drew weak demand. The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4.00% on 17 September, and the 10-year yield has added 52 basis points since 26 August.
Presidents Trump and Xi extended the US-China trade truce by two months to 10 January at a Washington summit on 24 and 25 September, with no tariff cuts, no rare earths commitment and no semiconductor agreement. The Hang Seng fell 1.3% and the Shanghai Composite 1.2% on Friday, and the next scheduled meeting is APEC in Shenzhen on 18 and 19 November.
Money markets price about a 90% probability that the Reserve Bank lifts the cash rate to 4.60% on Tuesday and about 40 basis points of further tightening by year-end, and all four major banks forecast a 25 basis point move. Trimmed mean inflation was 3.6% in the July monthly CPI against headline 3.5%, unemployment is 4.5%, and the Australian 10-year yield traded above 5% through the week.
Week ahead, Mon to Fri (AEST)
- Mon 28 Sep: RBA Monetary Policy Board begins its two-day meeting; no ABS releases scheduled
- Tue 29 Sep, 11:30: ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator for August
- Tue 29 Sep, 14:30: RBA cash rate decision, priced about 90% for a 25 basis point rise to 4.60%; Governor Bullock's press conference follows at 15:30
- Wed 30 Sep, 00:00: US JOLTS job openings for August
- Wed 30 Sep, 11:30: ABS Monthly CPI for August (July: headline 3.5%, trimmed mean 3.6%) and Building Approvals for August
- Wed 30 Sep, 22:30: US Q2 GDP third estimate and August personal income and outlays with the PCE price index; the US fiscal year ends the same day and a stopgap funding bill to 11 December cleared Congress in early September
- Thu 1 Oct: Chinese mainland markets close for National Day through Wed 7 Oct and reopen Thursday 8 October; Hong Kong closes Thursday only
- Fri 2 Oct, 00:00: ISM Manufacturing PMI for September
- Fri 2 Oct, 22:30: US Employment Situation for September
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