ASX 200 futures point 54 points higher as the US 10-year yield snaps an eight-session rise

Sentiment: bullish ASX 200 futures: +0.6%

S&P/ASX 200 futures point to a 54 point, 0.6% higher open on 18 September 2026 after the US 10-year Treasury yield fell 5.9 basis points to 4.947%, its first decline in nine sessions and a step back from the highest level since 2007. MU.US rose 5.50% to US$977.50 after Deutsche Bank raised its Micron forecast on a DRAM supply squeeze the broker expects to persist into 2028, the largest single-stock move in this brief. The VIX fell 12.82% to 15.44 as the event risk around Wednesday's Federal Reserve increase to a 3.75% to 4.00% target range cleared.

Overnight drivers

• US 10-year Treasury yield: 4.947%, down 5.9 basis points from Wednesday's 5.006% close. Brent crude at US$104.16 (-0.63%) on easing Middle East supply disruption cut the inflation input behind the eight-session rise in yields. GMG.AU, the largest rate-sensitive name on the ASX, closed Thursday at $26.00 (+0.74%).
• Semiconductors: MU.US +5.50%, NVDA.US +2.54% and AVGO.US +2.29% lifted the NASDAQ 1.69%. AU technology closed lower on Thursday: NXT.AU -2.90% to $11.06, XRO.AU -1.34% to $65.45, WTC.AU -1.18% to $31.89.
• US sector order: technology, consumer discretionary and materials led the S&P 500 while financials and energy lagged. That inverts Thursday's ASX order, where financials gained 1.4% and energy fell 1.1%.
• US jobless claims: 196,000 for the week, under the 208,000 consensus and the 206,000 prior reading. Money markets hold an 88% probability of an RBA increase at the 29 September meeting.

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,637.76 (+1.14%)
• Nasdaq: 26,418.30 (+1.69%)
• Dow: 51,778.04 (+0.61%)
• Russell 2000: 2,874.63 (+0.55%)
• VIX: 15.44 (-12.82%)

AAPL.US +1.38% to US$337.00, MSFT.US +1.52%, GOOGL.US +1.30%, AMZN.US +2.13% and TSLA.US +2.27% all closed higher one session after the Federal Reserve raised its target range 25 basis points, its first increase since 2023. The Russell 2000 added 0.55%, under a third of the NASDAQ move.

Commodities & FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold: US$4,382.40/oz (-0.39%)
• Brent: US$104.16 (-0.63%)
• WTI: US$101.31 (-0.59%)
• Iron ore 62% SGX October: US$96.05/t (+0.26%)
• Copper: US$6.614/lb (-0.71%)
• AUD/USD: 0.7112 (+0.29%)

Gold at US$4,382.40/oz extended the decline that followed the Fed decision, and AU producers closed Thursday lower: NST.AU -1.81% to $21.69, EVN.AU -1.13% to $13.12. Iron ore on the Singapore October contract held US$96.05/t, a sixth straight session under US$100, with BHP.AU +0.02% to $60.21, RIO.AU -0.10% to $166.09 and FMG.AU +1.27% to $16.75 on Thursday. AUD/USD at 0.7112 recovered 0.29% of Wednesday's 0.62% fall, which trims the currency benefit for USD earners CSL.AU ($177.56, +1.81% Thursday), COH.AU ($136.39) and JHX.AU ($37.48).

Key themes for ASX open

• Financials: NAB.AU closed Thursday +3.16% at $39.22, the largest big-four move, with ANZ.AU +2.08%, CBA.AU +1.63% and WBC.AU +1.16%. US financials lagged overnight while the AU sector gained on 88% RBA hike pricing.
• Energy: WDS.AU -0.87% to $32.98 and STO.AU -1.83% to $8.57 on Thursday, and Brent has fallen a further 0.63% since the ASX closed.
• Technology: NXT.AU -2.90% on Thursday, against a NASDAQ that has since gained 1.69%.
• Gold: NST.AU -1.81% and EVN.AU -1.13% on Thursday, with spot bullion a further 0.39% lower overnight.
• Index rebalance: MIN.AU ($54.10) and NXT.AU join the S&P/ASX 50 at Friday's close, replacing COH.AU and WTC.AU. CDA.AU ($48.59) enters the S&P/ASX 100 as ALX.AU ($4.44) exits, and GQG.AU ($1.04) leaves the S&P/ASX 200 with four other names.

Economic calendar today

• 09:30 AEST: RBA Governor Michele Bullock, Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser and Assistant Governors Sarah Hunter and Brad Jones appear before the House of Representatives Standing Committee on Economics, Parliament House, Canberra.
• 10:00 AEST: ASX opens, 30 minutes into the committee hearing.
• 16:00 AEST: S&P/ASX quarterly rebalance trade at the close. Constituent changes take effect before the 21 September open.

What to watch

• 88% is the market-implied probability of an RBA increase on 29 September. The Bullock committee appearance is the last scheduled RBA public commentary before that meeting.
• 4.947% on the US 10-year came after eight consecutive sessions of increases. Thursday's ASX gain traced to financials at +1.4%, which price off local rate expectations, while the US curve fell overnight.
• Energy was Thursday's weakest ASX sector at -1.1% and financials the strongest at +1.4%. Brent is 0.63% lower and US financials closed lower overnight.

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