Morning briefAfternoon brief
morning

ASX 200 futures flat as the S&P 500 closes at a record and US yields ease

MRVL.US +5.81% and AVGO.US +3.67% lead chips; CEG.US +12.25% on an Alphabet power deal; US 10-year at 5.27%

Neutral3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2008,736+0.57%
S&P 5007,819+0.58%
NASDAQ27,600+0.45%
Dow51,521+0.49%
VIX15.01-3.29%
Gold4,193+0.86%
Brent101.15+0.83%
AUD/USD0.6984+0.15%
SPI_F8,764-0.01%

ASX 200 futures flat as the S&P 500 closes at a record and US yields ease

Sentiment: neutral ASX 200 futures: -0.01%

ASX 200 futures pointed to a flat open on 7 October 2026, down 1 point at 8,764 after giving back an overnight gain of more than 20 points, even as the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to a record 7,818.93. Chipmakers led Wall Street: MRVL.US gained 5.81% after raising its 2028 revenue forecast and AVGO.US 3.67%, while the US 10-year yield fell 4.2 bp to 5.27%. The ASX 200 had already added 0.57% to 8,735.7 on Tuesday, its third straight gain, after Monday's Nasdaq record and a US$2 fall in crude.

Overnight drivers

The US trade deficit widened 13.7% in August as imports reached a record, and CME FedWatch priced a 19.4% chance of a Fed rate rise this month, down from 50.9% a week earlier (Reuters, 6 October).

  • Yields: the US 10-year closed at 5.27%, down from 5.31%, and the 30-year at 5.64% (-2.4 bp). CBA.AU rose 0.77% to $152.38 on Tuesday as property trusts led the local market; US banks edged up, with XLF.US +0.24%.
  • Chips: AMD.US gained 2.80% after CEO Lisa Su said the company plans to lift chip supply in 2027, and NVDA.US added 0.14%. WTC.AU fell 2.54% to $31.90 and XRO.AU 1.42% to $55.71 on Tuesday as the local tech index dropped 2.90%.
  • Power demand: CEG.US jumped 12.25% after a 3,590 MW supply deal with Alphabet, and the utilities fund XLU.US rose 2.98%. AGL.AU (+2.59%) and ORG.AU (+1.19%) gained on Tuesday.
  • Crude: December Brent traded at US$101.15 (+0.83%) at 08:30 AEDT after the G7 agreed to release emergency crude and diesel stocks. WDS.AU closed Tuesday at $31.24 (+0.06%) and STO.AU at $8.56 (-0.12%).

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,818.93 (+0.58%)
  • Nasdaq: 27,599.79 (+0.45%)
  • Dow: 51,521.28 (+0.49%)
  • VIX: 15.01 (-3.29%)

The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,818.93 on 6 October 2026, its first record close since August, and the Nasdaq Composite set a second straight record at 27,599.79. Ten of 11 S&P 500 sectors rose, led by utilities; health care was the one decliner (XLV.US -0.17%). The Russell 2000 fell 0.59% to 2,830.30, and NYSE advancers beat decliners 1.93 to 1.

OPCH.US jumped 32.65% to US$31.00 after McKesson and Clayton Dubilier & Rice agreed to buy the infusion provider in a deal worth about US$5.8 billion including debt. LW.US rose 7.49% after Lamb Weston's quarterly profit and revenue beat its own projections.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold (December): US$4,192.70/oz (+0.86%)
  • Brent (December): US$101.15 (+0.83%)
  • WTI (November): US$89.91 (+0.54%)
  • Iron ore 62% Fe (Singapore, Tuesday afternoon): US$91.05/t (-0.5%)
  • Copper: US$6.66/lb (+0.28%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6984 (+0.15%)

BHP.US rose 0.20% to US$87.00 in New York; each ADR represents two BHP.AU shares, so the close equals about A$62.28 at 0.6984, 0.9% below Tuesday's ASX close of $62.86. RIO.US added 0.25% to US$95.89. The US Dollar Index fell 0.30% to 101.86, and the gold miners fund GDX.US rose 0.92%.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • Miners: BHP.AU (+1.57%), RIO.AU (+1.09%) and FMG.AU (+1.36%) rose on Tuesday; overnight copper added 0.28% and the BHP ADR sits 0.9% below the local close.
  • Gold miners: December gold is up 0.86% since EVN.AU closed Tuesday at $12.83 (-0.93%).
  • Tech: AVGO.US +3.67% and MRVL.US +5.81% follow Tuesday's falls in WTC.AU, XRO.AU and NXT.AU (-2.16% to $10.41).
  • USD earners: CSL.AU rose 0.95% to $178.68 and RMD.AU 1.30% to $32.00 on Tuesday; AUD/USD is 0.15% higher overnight at 0.6984.
  • DDR.AU: Dicker Data agreed on Tuesday evening to buy Sektor Group for about $112 million, after trading halted at $15.57.

Economic calendar today

  • 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed Tuesday up 49.3 points at 8,735.7
  • 11:30 AEDT: ABS building approvals for August
  • 11:30 AEDT: ABS building activity for the June quarter
  • Thursday 05:00 AEDT: minutes of the Federal Reserve's September meeting

What to watch

  • 1 point is the implied opening loss, after the ASX 200 posted three straight gains to 8,735.7.
  • 5.27% on the US 10-year is 8 bp below Monday's intraday high of 5.35%, the highest since 2002.
  • 19.4% is the CME FedWatch probability of a second straight Fed rise at the 27 to 28 October meeting.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.

Track every trade. Learn from every week.

Swingfolio logs your entries, exits, and R-multiples automatically — so your weekly review writes itself.

Start freeSee features

Disclaimer

This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

Prices and market data sourced from EODHD and Yahoo Finance and may be delayed. Swingfolio does not hold an AFS licence and does not provide personal advice. Editorial standards and methodology →