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ASX 200 futures -0.5% on 11 November after hot US CPI lifts the 10-year yield to 4.98%

US CPI +0.4% vs 0.3% forecast; S&P 500 -0.38%, NVDA.US -5.47%; US 10-year 4.983%; gold -1.82%; AUD 0.6870.

Bearish4 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

ASX 2009,129+1.10%
S&P 5007,521-0.38%
NASDAQ25,066-0.74%
Dow52,232-0.30%
VIX19.46-2.31%
Gold4,040-1.82%
Brent91.98-0.64%
AUD/USD0.687-0.82%
ASX SPI futures9,113-0.52%

ASX 200 futures -0.5% on 11 November after hot US CPI lifts the 10-year yield to 4.98%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.5%

ASX 200 futures fell 48 points, or 0.5%, to 9,113 near 6am AEDT on 11 November 2026, per the AFR, after US October CPI rose 0.4% against a 0.3% forecast and the S&P 500 lost 0.38% to 7,520.93. NVDA.US fell 5.47% to US$168.89, a two-session drop of about 10%, as its board investigates questions over CEO Jensen Huang. The US 10-year yield rose 11.9 bps to 4.983%, gold fell 1.82% to US$4,039.60/oz and AUD/USD 0.82% to 0.6870, all against an ASX 200 that closed Tuesday 1.10% higher at 9,129.0.

Overnight drivers

  • US inflation and the Fed: October CPI rose 0.4% for the third straight month of at least 0.4%, and core CPI rose 0.3% against a 0.2% forecast, per Investing.com. Futures now price a December Fed rate rise in full, up from 84% on Monday, per CME FedWatch cited by Capital Brief. Governor Christopher Waller said a 50 bp move could be warranted if price pressure continues. The 2-year yield rose about 18 bps to 4.73%, per Investing.com.
  • Bond yields: The US 10-year closed at 4.983%, up 11.9 bps, after touching 5.021%. ABC put the Australian 10-year at 5.01%. The A-REIT index rose 2.23% and Financials 1.12% on Tuesday,; both groups trade against bond yields.
  • US dollar: The US dollar index rose 0.58% to 102.24, taking AUD/USD down 0.82% to 0.6870. CSL.AU closed Tuesday at $200.73 (-0.02%) and RMD.AU at $34.13 (-0.41%); both report in US dollars.
  • Gold: December gold fell 1.82% to US$4,039.60/oz and silver 2.23% to US$51.52/oz as yields rose. NEM.US fell 4.15%. The All Ords Gold index rose 2.31% on Tuesday, with NST.AU at $26.62 (+2.98%), WGX.AU at $6.04 (+2.90%) and EVN.AU at $13.82 (+2.14%).

Overnight Wall Street

  • S&P 500: 7,520.93 (-0.38%)
  • Nasdaq: 25,065.88 (-0.74%)
  • Dow: 52,231.89 (-0.30%)
  • VIX: 19.46 (-2.31%)

Tech led the S&P 500 lower on Tuesday 10 November 2026, with XLK.US down 1.15% and NVDA.US the largest single weight on the index. Nvidia began an internal probe into claims involving businesswoman Alice Huang, and ABC reported mounting uncertainty over the CEO's future; the company reports on 17 November. AVGO.US rose 3.91% and AMD.US 1.30%, while COHR.US gave back 4.68% of Monday's 16.79% gain. The Philadelphia Semiconductor index slipped 0.35% and the Russell 2000 0.68%.

XLF.US rose 0.52% and XLE.US 0.44% as bank and energy stocks held up against the tech selling. The VIX eased 0.46 points to 19.46. In Europe the STOXX 600 rose 0.27% and the FTSE 100 fell 0.29%.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

  • Gold: US$4,039.60/oz (-1.82%)
  • Brent (January): US$91.98 (-0.64%)
  • Iron ore 62%: US$92.40/t (-0.4%)
  • AUD/USD: 0.6870 (-0.82%)

BHP.US fell 2.10% and RIO.US 2.14% in New York as copper dropped 1.11% to US$6.27/lb. In Sydney on Tuesday BHP.AU closed at $59.87 (+1.13%), RIO.AU at $152.84 (+0.38%) and FMG.AU at $15.36 (+0.52%). Brent sits at its lowest since August, per the Motley Fool, after Monday's 5.60% fall on President Trump's comments about Iran. WDS.AU closed Tuesday at $30.74 (+0.13%), STO.AU at $8.60 (-0.23%) and BPT.AU at $0.905 (+0.56%). WTI fell 0.51% to US$86.41.

Key themes for the ASX open

  • CBA.AU: Commonwealth Bank reported unaudited September-quarter cash profit of about $2.8 billion, flat on the second-half FY26 quarterly average and up 8% on a year earlier, per ABC. Operating income and expenses each rose 3%, loan impairment expense was about $300 million (11 bps of loans) and home loan arrears rose 7 bps. CBA.AU closed Tuesday at $168.99 (+1.82%).
  • Ex-dividend: MQG.AU trades ex its $3.25 interim dividend today after closing at $251.54 (+1.45%), and RMD.AU trades ex its 6.6 US cent quarterly dividend. Today is the last day ANZ.AU trades with its final dividend attached; it closed at $39.44 (+1.00%).
  • QAN.AU: Qantas rose 6.34% to $9.90 on Tuesday after flagging 850 roles at risk, per Capital Brief, and Brent is down a further 0.64% overnight.
  • AZJ.AU: Aurizon reaffirmed its full-year earnings and dividend outlook, per Capital Brief. AZJ.AU closed Tuesday at $3.90 (+1.30%).
  • Tech: WTC.AU closed Tuesday at $45.98 (+1.52%), XRO.AU at $69.63 (-1.35%) and NXT.AU at $10.79 (+2.57%), before the Nasdaq's 0.74% fall.

Economic calendar today

  • 11:30am AEDT: ABS Lending Indicators, September quarter
  • 8 to 9 December: Federal Reserve meeting, with a rate rise fully priced

What to watch

  • Futures at -0.5% would hand back about half of Tuesday's 99.3-point gain, when advancers led decliners 187 to 26 and Industrials rose 2.31%.
  • Gold miners gained 2.31% on Tuesday as a group; December gold is down 1.82% since.
  • The US 10-year at 4.983% is 11.9 bps above Monday's close and sits under the 5.021% intraday high; the Australian 10-year is at 5.01%.

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This briefing provides market observations and general information only. It is not personal financial advice and does not take into account your objectives, situation or needs. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Consider seeking independent advice before acting on any information presented here.

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