ASX 200 futures fall 0.7% as Fed minutes point to another hike and gold drops 1.2%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.7%

ASX 200 futures fell 0.7% to 8,701 by 7.30am AEDT on 8 October 2026, 26.7 points below Wednesday's close of 8,727.7, after Fed minutes showed most officials expect another rate rise by year end and the US 10-year yield touched 5.36%, its highest since April 2002. BHP.US fell 2.05% to US$85.22 in New York, which puts BHP.AU about 2.0% below its Wednesday close of $62.45. December gold lost 1.20% to US$4,136.70 as the US Dollar Index rose 0.44%; EVN.AU and NST.AU had gained on Wednesday.

Overnight drivers

The minutes of the Federal Reserve's 15 to 16 September meeting, released on 7 October 2026, said "most participants assessed that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate would likely be appropriate by year end." Traders priced about 17% odds of a rise at the October meeting (Yahoo Finance).

• Yields: the US 10-year closed at 5.28% (+0.8 bp) after an intraday high of 5.36%, and the 30-year at 5.66% after reaching 5.73%. CBA.AU (-1.32% to $150.37) and WBC.AU (-1.21%) led Wednesday's local bank losses, with the Australian 10-year at 5.41%.
• Dollar and gold: the US Dollar Index rose 0.44% to 102.28 and the gold miners fund GDX.US fell 3.13%. EVN.AU (+2.49% to $13.15) and NST.AU (+1.92% to $24.37) closed Wednesday before that fall.
• Iron ore and China: BHP.US fell 2.05% and RIO.US 2.85%. Iron ore was flat at US$91.60/t (ABC, 7.30am AEDT), and China's markets reopen today after the National Day holiday.
• Europe: the DAX fell 1.4%, the STOXX 600 1.5% and the FTSE 100 0.8% (ABC).

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,801.77 (-0.22%)
• Nasdaq: 27,538.69 (-0.22%)
• Dow: 51,179.87 (-0.66%)
• VIX: 15.08 (+0.47%)

The S&P 500 fell 0.22% to 7,801.77 on 7 October 2026, a day after its record close of 7,818.93, and the Dow lost 341.41 points. The Russell 2000 fell 1.31% to 2,793.20. SMH.US dropped 1.18% and NVDA.US 0.74%, while health care gained, with XLV.US +1.03%. XLE.US fell 0.61% even as Brent held above US$100.

BULL.US fell 19.09% to US$5.89 after US lawmakers reportedly said Webull is "tied in structural ways" to China's government (Yahoo Finance). Bitcoin fell 2.76% to US$83,250 on forced long liquidations and COIN.US lost 3.92%. STZ.US closed 2.35% higher after Constellation Brands reported quarterly net sales of US$2.63 billion against estimates of US$2.54 billion.

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (December): US$4,136.70/oz (-1.20%)
• Brent (December): US$100.95 (+0.37%)
• WTI (November): US$88.94 (-0.56%)
• Iron ore 62% Fe: US$91.60/t (flat, ABC)
• Copper: US$6.64/lb (-0.12%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6963 (-0.30%)

Each BHP.US ADR represents two BHP.AU shares, so the US$85.22 close equals about A$61.19 at 0.6963, 2.0% below the $62.45 ASX close. Brent stayed near US$101 on Houthi attacks on Saudi airports and a Gulf of Mexico storm forecast (Yahoo Finance); WDS.AU closed Wednesday at $31.50 (+0.83%) and STO.AU at $8.54 (-0.23%).

Key themes for the ASX open

• Miners: the BHP ADR implies about A$61.19, and RIO.AU closed Wednesday at $166.74 (-0.61%) with RIO.US down 2.85% overnight. FMG.AU fell 2.44% to $16.01 on Wednesday.
• Gold miners: GDX.US -3.13% and December gold -1.20% follow Wednesday's 0.94% rise in the All Ords Gold index.
• Banks: CBA.AU, WBC.AU and NAB.AU (-0.78%) fell on Wednesday, and XLF.US lost 0.48% overnight.
• Health care: XLV.US +1.03% follows a 1.85% gain in CSL.AU to $181.99 and a 1.09% rise in the local health care index on Wednesday.
• Tech: SMH.US -1.18% overnight; WTC.AU closed Wednesday at $32.09 (+0.60%) and XRO.AU at $56.10 (+0.70%).

Economic calendar today

• 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed Wednesday down 8.0 points at 8,727.7
• 12:30 AEDT: Shanghai and Shenzhen reopen after the National Day holiday
• 23:30 AEDT: US weekly jobless claims

What to watch

• 26.7 points is the gap between the 8,701 futures level and Wednesday's 8,727.7 close.
• 5.36% was the intraday US 10-year high on 7 October, the highest since April 2002.
• 17% is the priced probability of a Fed rise at the October meeting after the minutes.

Context only, not financial advice. Track your own trades with Swingfolio.