ASX 200 futures rise 0.2% as Brent jumps 3.7% and an OpenAI report sinks the Nasdaq 1.25%
Sentiment: mixed ASX 200 futures: +0.2%
ASX 200 futures rose 0.2% to 8,697 by 7.34am AEDT on 9 October 2026, 36.1 points above Thursday's close of 8,660.9, as December Brent rose 3.71% to US$103.92 and the US 10-year yield fell 4.6 bp to 5.23%. ORCL.US fell 5.48% and SMH.US 2.84% after the Financial Times reported OpenAI's annualised revenue was "$20 billion lower than previously estimated" (Yahoo Finance), which took the Nasdaq down 1.25% to 27,193.34. WDS.AU (+2.57% to $32.31) and STO.AU (+1.52%) closed Thursday before the oil move, and XLE.US added 2.97% overnight.
Overnight drivers
President Trump said on 8 October 2026 that "we will not be attacking Iran at any time prior to the Midterm Elections" and that the US was "having productive discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran"; Brent trimmed its gain after the post and settled near US$104 (Yahoo Finance).
- AI and chips: SMH.US -2.84%, NVDA.US -2.94%, AVGO.US -4.35%, MU.US -4.79% and INTC.US -5.34% on the OpenAI revenue report. NXT.AU (+0.49% to $10.28) and WTC.AU (+0.53%) closed Thursday before it; MGH.AU fell 22.38% and SKS.AU 10.10% on Thursday on reports about the Firmus IPO.
- Oil: December Brent +3.71% to US$103.92 and November WTI +3.29% to US$91.18; XOM.US +2.71%. The ASX energy index rose 1.36% on Thursday.
- Yields: the US 10-year fell 4.6 bp to 5.23% and the 30-year 5.5 bp to 5.61%; XLF.US rose 0.89%. CBA.AU (-1.50% to $148.12), NAB.AU, WBC.AU and ANZ.AU each fell about 1.5% on Thursday.
- Gold: December gold +0.43% to US$4,158.30 as the US Dollar Index fell 0.13% to 102.11; GDX.US +1.47%. The All Ords Gold index fell 1.38% on Thursday.
Overnight Wall Street
- S&P 500: 7,765.36 (-0.47%)
- Nasdaq: 27,193.34 (-1.25%)
- Dow: 51,231.64 (+0.10%)
- VIX: 15.41 (+2.19%)
The S&P 500 fell 0.47% to 7,765.36 on 8 October 2026, its second straight loss, while the Dow added 51.77 points. XLK.US lost 1.79% and XLE.US gained 2.97%; the Russell 2000 finished flat at 2,794.13 (+0.03%). MSFT.US fell 1.35% and AMD.US 3.90%, while PLTR.US rose 2.40% after Goldman Sachs upgraded it to Buy (Yahoo Finance).
US initial jobless claims fell to 197,000 in the week to 3 October, and continuing claims rose to 1.71 million (Yahoo Finance). Bitcoin fell 1.82% to US$81,600.
Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)
- Gold (December): US$4,158.30/oz (+0.43%)
- Brent (December): US$103.92 (+3.71%)
- WTI (November): US$91.18 (+3.29%)
- Iron ore: US$91.13/t (-0.1%, ABC)
- Copper: US$6.55/lb (-1.49%)
- AUD/USD: 0.6951 (-0.1%, ABC)
BHP.US closed at US$84.83 (-0.46%); each ADR equals two BHP.AU shares, so the close equals about A$61.02 at 0.6951, 0.3% below Thursday's $61.19. FCX.US fell 1.00% with copper. Morgans cut FMG.AU to "trim" with a $15.40 valuation after net debt rose US$1.9bn in the September quarter (The Motley Fool); FMG.AU closed Thursday at $15.79.
Key themes for the ASX open
- Energy: Brent +3.71% overnight follows Thursday's gains in WDS.AU and STO.AU.
- Tech and data centres: SMH.US -2.84% and ORCL.US -5.48%; XRO.AU closed Thursday at $57.79 (+3.01%), and ABC reported Firmus is delaying the IPO it had set for 23 October.
- Banks: XLF.US +0.89% and a 4.6 bp fall in the US 10-year follow a 0.99% drop in the local financials index on Thursday.
- Gold miners: GDX.US +1.47%; NST.AU closed Thursday at $24.03 (-1.40%) and EVN.AU at $12.86 (-2.21%).
- Iron ore majors: the BHP ADR implies about A$61.02, and RIO.AU closed Thursday at $161.97 (-2.86%).
Economic calendar today
- 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed Thursday down 66.8 points at 8,660.9
- No Australian or US data releases are listed for today in the Swingfolio economic calendar
What to watch
- 36.1 points is the gap between the 8,697 futures level and Thursday's 8,660.9 close.
- US$103.92 is December Brent after a 3.71% rise, US$3.72 above Wednesday's settle.
- 5.23% is the US 10-year yield, 13 bp below Wednesday's intraday high of 5.36%.
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