ASX 200 futures fall 0.8% to 8,786 as European stocks drop and the Nasdaq gains 1.11%

Sentiment: bearish ASX 200 futures: -0.8%

ASX 200 futures fell 74 points, or 0.8%, to 8,786 by 7:40am AEDT on 20 October 2026 (Capital Brief), after the STOXX 600 lost 0.80% on a French bond selloff and the US 10-year Treasury yield rose 4 bps to 5.14%. NVDA.US rose 1.38% and MU.US 2.97% as chip stocks recovered, lifting the Nasdaq 1.11%, while the Dow slipped 0.07% and XLF.US fell 0.83%. BHP.AU reported a 19% fall in September-quarter copper output to 400.7 kt before the open, with full-year guidance unchanged.

Overnight drivers

• Bond yields: the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.14% from 5.10% on Friday, after topping 5.30% earlier this month, its highest since 2002 (AP, via SMH). French yields rose after weekend protests raised the prospect of more government spending. XLF.US fell 0.83%; the ASX financials index rose 0.86% on Monday, with NAB.AU +1.48% to $39.90 and CBA.AU +0.65% to $155.39.
• Chips and AI: SMH.US rose 1.61% and the PHLX Semiconductor Index ended an eight-session fall of about 15.7%, its longest losing run since October 2008 (Reuters, via Capital Brief). CRWV.US closed 0.44% lower despite a Goldman Sachs upgrade to buy. The ASX information technology index fell 1.31% on Monday, with XRO.AU -2.38% to $60.32 and MP1.AU -3.45% to $15.93.
• Gold: December gold fell 0.50% to US$4,160.30/oz and GDX.US 1.41%. NST.AU closed Monday at $25.04 (-0.28%) and EVN.AU at $12.51 (-0.71%).
• Australian dollar: AUD/USD rose 0.46% to 0.6981, which lowers the local value of US-dollar earnings at CSL.AU ($194.05 on Monday) and RMD.AU ($34.07).

Overnight Wall Street

• S&P 500: 7,690.73 (+0.41%)
• Nasdaq: 26,430.89 (+1.11%)
• Dow: 51,966.03 (-0.07%)
• VIX: 18.44 (-7.75%)

The S&P 500 rose 31.29 points to 7,690.73 on 19 October 2026 after its worst week since June, but most US stocks outside AI and tech fell (AP, via SMH). AMZN.US rose 4.98% and TSLA.US 3.76% before Tesla reports on Wednesday US time; META.US fell 0.55% before its own result the same day. XLE.US fell 0.64% and XLV.US 0.60%. The Russell 2000 rose 0.25% to 2,728.30.

The STOXX 600 fell 0.80% to 639.56, with the DAX down 1.18% and the CAC 40 down 1.11% (Capital Brief). The Nikkei 225 closed Monday 0.62% lower at 64,916.70, and South Korea's KOSPI rose 1.8% (AP).

Commodities and FX (AU-relevant)

• Gold (December): US$4,160.30/oz (-0.50%)
• Brent (December): US$109.21 (-0.59%)
• WTI (November): US$103.15 (+1.72%)
• Copper (December): US$6.584/lb (+0.16%)
• Iron ore: US$90.90/t (+0.05%, ABC)
• AUD/USD: 0.6981 (+0.46%)

BHP.US fell 0.08% to US$83.22, which equals two BHP.AU shares, or about A$59.60 at 0.6981, 1.41% below Monday's $60.46 close. Gold in Australian dollars sits near A$5,959/oz. WDS.AU closed Monday at $34.03 (+2.69%) and STO.AU at $9.32 (+2.31%), with December Brent now 0.59% below its Friday settle of US$109.86.

Key themes for the ASX open

• BHP quarterly: copper output fell 19% to 400.7 kt on lower grades, maintenance, Chilean weather and a Carrapateena conveyor failure; WAIO iron ore rose 4% to 64.3 Mt, a record at the mine and port. FY27 guidance of 1,650 to 1,800 kt copper and 253 to 264 Mt WAIO is unchanged. Two workers died at Escondida and Peak Downs.
• Banks: XLF.US -0.83% and a 5.14% US 10-year yield follow Monday gains of 1.03% for ANZ.AU and 0.74% for WBC.AU.
• Tech: SMH.US +1.61% and XLK.US +1.36% follow Monday's 1.31% fall in the local tech index; WTC.AU rose 1.36% to $38.12 on Monday.
• Data centres: NXT.AU remains in a trading halt over a power supply delay at its M3 Melbourne site, where capacity is rising from 200 MW to 225 MW; the board had not yet met on the delay (ABC).
• Takeovers: CGF.AU closed Monday at $11.75, 5c below Daiichi Life's $11.80 proposal, and CWY.AU at $2.97 against EQT's $3.095 cash offer.

Economic calendar today

• 08:24 AEDT: BHP.AU September-quarter operational review (released)
• 10:00 AEDT: ASX open, after the ASX 200 closed up 39.0 points, or 0.44%, at 8,845.7 on Monday
• During the day: AGMs for BEN.AU, JDO.AU and CDA.AU; Citi's Australia and New Zealand investment conference in Sydney runs Tuesday and Wednesday (Stockhead, Capital Brief)

What to watch

• 8,786 is the futures level, about 60 points below Monday's 8,845.7 cash close.
• 5.14% is the US 10-year Treasury yield, up 4 bps on the day.
• US$4,160.30/oz is December gold, down 0.50%, after the All Ords Gold index fell 0.68% on Monday.
• META.US and TSLA.US report on Wednesday US time, Thursday morning AEDT.

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