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Nvidia's Forecast Splits the US Open: Nasdaq Futures +0.96%, Dow Futures Flat

Nasdaq 100 futures +0.96% and Dow futures -0.04% before the open, with NVDA.US up 6.34% pre-market on a 70% fiscal 2028 growth forecast.

Mixed3 min readBy Swingfolio Research

At a glance

Dow53,464-0.21%
VIX14.94-1.78%
Russell 20003,006-0.14%
US Dollar99.2+0.04%
US 10Y4.66+0.54%
ES_F7,723+0.43%
NQ_F29,572+0.96%

Nvidia's Forecast Splits the US Open: Nasdaq Futures +0.96%, Dow Futures Flat

Sentiment: mixed S&P 500 futures: +0.43%

Nasdaq 100 futures traded 0.96% higher at 29,572.00 before Thursday's US open after Nvidia guided to roughly 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, a forecast that landed above analyst estimates. NVDA.US traded at $222.95 in pre-market, up 6.34% on Wednesday's $209.66 close, after posting second-quarter revenue of $96.2 billion and earnings of $2.22 per share. Dow futures sat 0.04% lower and Russell 2000 futures 0.03% lower, so the gain sits with companies tied to AI compute.

Overnight drivers

  • Nvidia guided to about 70% revenue growth for fiscal 2028, the year running February 2027 to January 2028. CFO Colette Kress gave the number on Wednesday, and CEO Jensen Huang said underlying demand runs higher than that, with supply the binding constraint. NVDA.US +6.34% pre-market to $222.95.
  • Second-quarter revenue reached $96.2 billion, up 106% on the year, with earnings of $2.22 per share. AI cloud, industrial and enterprise customers accounted for $40.3 billion of that, up 138%. Gross margin held at 75%, and the company guided to 74% for the current quarter.
  • MRVL.US +5.7%, ARM.US +4.7%, MU.US +4.5%, INTC.US +3.0% and AMD.US +1.7% in pre-market trading. SNDK.US, PANW.US and GEV.US added between 3% and 6%. Among AI cloud providers, NBIS.US gained about 7.5% and CRWV.US about 6%.
  • Initial jobless claims printed 203,000 for the week ended 22 August, under the 208,000 consensus and down from 207,000. Continuing claims fell to 1,778,000 from 1,796,000. The dollar index held 99.20 and the US 10-year sat at 4.66%.

Overnight Asia and Europe

South Korea's Kospi closed 1.53% higher at 6,912.37 on 27 August 2026, the strongest of the major Asian markets, with Shanghai's Composite up 1.13% at 3,956.57. Japan's Nikkei 225 finished 0.20% lower at 66,131.98 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng 0.34% lower at 25,565.74.

Germany's DAX traded 0.38% higher at 26,385.86 into the US open. The STOXX 600 sat 0.27% lower at 654.64 and the FTSE 100 0.37% lower at 10,838.27.

Pre-market movers

CRM.US rose close to 13% in extended trading on 26 August 2026 after second-quarter revenue beat expectations, on earnings of $5.90 per share, from a $205.62 regular-session close. OKTA.US gained about 20% after topping estimates and citing demand for agentic AI, from a $134.42 close.

TSM.US, which manufactures most of Nvidia's output, closed Wednesday at $417.69 and still faces supply constraints, as do the memory suppliers feeding the same systems. That constraint is why Huang put demand above the 70% growth figure rather than at it.

Wednesday's session and the macro backdrop

The S&P 500 closed at 7,675.70 on 26 August 2026, down 0.02%, with the Nasdaq Composite 0.08% lower at 26,130.20 and the Dow 0.21% lower at 53,463.88. The Russell 2000 fell 0.14% to 3,005.90. The VIX sits at 14.94.

July PCE inflation held at 3.7% year on year against a 3.6% forecast, unchanged from June, with core PCE at 3.3%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis left second-quarter GDP growth unrevised at a 1.5% annualised rate, down from 2.1% in the first quarter. The federal funds rate stands at 3.75%.

US economic calendar today (ET)

  • 08:30 initial jobless claims, week ended 22 August: 203,000 against a 208,000 consensus, from 207,000
  • 08:30 continuing claims: 1,778,000, from 1,796,000
  • 08:30 goods trade balance for July: -$118.8 billion against a -$100.0 billion forecast
  • 08:30 wholesale inventories for July: +1.3% month on month against a +0.2% forecast
  • Thursday reporters: WDAY.US, ADSK.US, MDB.US, DG.US and BBY.US

What to watch

  • 100 basis points separates Nasdaq 100 futures at +0.96% from Dow futures at -0.04%. Russell 2000 futures at -0.03% put small caps on the Dow side of that gap.
  • $5.07 trillion is Nvidia's market value, the largest in the S&P 500, which is why a 6.34% pre-market move in one company lifts S&P 500 futures 0.43% while Dow futures sit flat.
  • Semiconductor tariffs: the US is considering a fresh round, reported Thursday, while semiconductor names lead the pre-market.
  • $12.9 billion is the reported price Nvidia has agreed to pay for Hugging Face, per The Information on Wednesday.
  • 3.75% is the federal funds rate, with claims undershooting the 208,000 consensus and PCE overshooting the 3.6% forecast.

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